奥巴马称美国取代中国成为首选投资地遭质疑

US President Barack Obama proclaimed America had usurped China as the world's No 1 investment destination, a bold statement that left some economists scratching their heads.

The White House cited an AT Kearney survey as the basis for Obama's remark in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, noting the US topped the global consulting firm's list for expected foreign direct investment.

But the US ranks lower in other prominent surveys. Forbes' annual report on the best country to do business in put Ireland at the top, with the US at No 14, according to Politico's website. It also noted that the Milken Institute - which measures countries on 67 variables, including economic fundamentals and regulations - put the United States at No 22, behind Hong Kong at No 1.

Obama kicked off his speech with a list of his administration's economic achievements.

"Here are the results of your efforts: the lowest unemployment rate in over five years. A rebounding housing market. A manufacturing sector that's adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. More oil produced at home than we buy from the rest of the world - the first time that's happened in nearly 20 years...," Obama said. "And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world's number one place to invest; America is."

The statement pacified some Americans' concerns in the past couple of years that "China is eating America's lunch", but it triggered a fierce debate.

RBS economist Louis Kuijs said despite the fact that the United States is emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis and is on track for an economic upturn this year, hurdles remain to making it the world's top investment destination.

"The US has made progress in economic recovery, which makes itself a more attractive place for investments," Kuijs said. "Many federal governments are quite keen on attracting investments and manufacturing as energy prices are lower."

However, lower energy costs, thanks to abundant supply of shale gas, are not the sole factor. There are others such as wages and availability of supply chain services, he said.

He added that the mainland's sophisticated and advanced logistics and supply chain network makes it more favourable in manufacturing activities.

"The supply networks were lost along with the demise of many manufacturing activities in the US many years ago," Kuijs said. "It is not easy to bring more jobs back to the US."

The US is more suitable for developing some petrochemical-related industries, he said.

US-based financial services firm Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc Chandler saw the US as the best investment location by some measures such as low unit labour costs, cheap energy, higher legal transparency and signs of manufacturing activities returning to the country.

"Many worried about a bubbling debt problem, quicker deterioration in demography, poor stock market and unstable money market in China," he said.

However, Wilson Tong, a professor with Hong Kong Polytechnic University's School of Accounting and Finance, has faith in China's attractiveness on the world's economic stage. He says because the US is unwinding its quantitative easing measures, capital is naturally flowing back to the country.

美国总统奥巴马声称美国已经取代中国成为世界首选投资目的地，这一大胆言论让一些经济学家莫名其妙。

奥巴马在周二的国情咨文演讲中提到，美国已成为全球咨询公司预期的外国直接投资的首选目的地，白宫还援引AT Kearney的调查作为这一言论的根据。

不过在其他著名的调查中，美国的排名可没这么高。福布斯最佳经商国家年度报告中，爱尔兰居首，而美国排在第14位。此外，根据67个变量对国家做出考量的梅肯研究院把美国排在第22位，而排名第一的是香港。

奥巴马在演讲中列出了一大串他执政下取得的经济成就：

“这是你们努力的结果：五年多来最低的失业率。房屋市场回暖。制造行业自20世纪90年代以来首次增加了职位。我们国内的产油量超过了从世界其他国家进口的油量——这是近20年来的头一次。而且，全世界商业领袖十多年来首次宣称中国不再是世界首选投资地，美国才是。”

这一言论平息了一些美国人在过去几年对“中国正在吃掉美国人的午餐”的担忧，但这也引发了一场激烈的讨论。

苏格兰皇家银行经济学家路易斯·库伊基斯说，尽管美国正在从2008年全球经济危机中复苏，今年也步上了经济好转的轨道，但是美国要成为世界首选投资目的地，还有不少障碍。

库伊基斯说：“美国在经济复苏上取得了进展，这让它作为投资地变得更有吸引力。许多联邦政府对于吸引投资和制造商都很积极，因为能源价格降低了。”

但是，较低的能源价格（这要感谢页岩气的充足供应）并不是唯一的因素，他说，还有其他因素，比如工资，还有获得供应链服务的难易。

他补充说，中国大陆高度发达的物流体系和供应链网络让其更有利于制造业活动的开展。

库伊基斯说：“在许多年前，随着美国许多制造业活动的终止，供应网络也随之丧失。想把更多工作岗位带回到美国并不容易。”

他说，美国更适合发展一些和石油化学产品相关的产业。

总部在美国的金融服务公司布朗兄弟哈里曼银行的策略分析师马克·钱德勒把美国视为最佳投资地，他列出的利好因素有较低的单位劳动力成本、清洁能源、更高的法律透明度，以及制造活动回归本国的迹象。

他说：“许多人担忧中国正在酝酿的债务问题、人口的迅速老化、不良的股票市场和不稳定的金融市场。”

但是，香港理工大学会计金融分院的教授威尔森·唐对中国在世界经济舞台上的吸引力很有信心。他说，因为美国正逐步实施量化宽松措施，资金自然就会回流。