沪市频跌说明了什么？

China’s benchmark equity index seems impervious to good news. Despite a brightening domestic economy, a successful transfer of power in Beijing and efforts by regulators to boost participation, the Shanghai Composite has tumbled. On Tuesday, it closed below 2,000 points for the first time since January 2009.

中国基准股指似乎对利好消息无动于衷。尽管中国国内经济正出现起色，北京又成功地进行了权力交接，监管机构也在努力提高市场参与，但上证综指仍未能止跌。周二，该指数自2009年1月以来首次在2000点下方收盘。

The Shanghai market is largely closed to foreign investors, who can only access mainland-listed shares, known as A-shares, through a restrictive quota system. Instead, global investors tend to buy Chinese companies via their Hong Kong listings, or H-shares. These have rallied 15 per cent since September as foreigners turn more bullish on Asia’s largest economy.

上海股市基本上对境外投资者是关闭的，此类投资者只能通过一套限制多多的配额制度来投资于中国内地上市的所谓A股。相反，全球投资者倾向于通过在香港上市的中国股票（H股）对中国企业投资。随着境外人士逐渐看好亚洲最大经济体，此类股票自9月份以来已上涨15%。

The domestic Chinese investors who dominate trading in Shanghai have had plenty of bad news to weigh up over the past couple of years. China’s economy has slowed for seven straight quarters and is on track to record its lowest annual rate of growth for a decade this year.

过去两年期间，在上海股市交易中占据主导地位的中国国内投资者有不少坏消息需要考虑。中国经济连续7个季度放缓，今年将录得10年来最低的年度增幅。

There are concerns, too, that the political paralysis surrounding the country’s once-a-decade leadership transition has delayed needed reforms.

人们还担忧，中国10年一度的领导层换届前后的政治瘫痪，延误了必要的改革。

Indeed, many Chinese investors have simply given up on equities and moved to other investments such as property, gold or high-yield wealth management products.

的确，许多中国投资者干脆放弃了股票，转向其它投资，如房地产、黄金，或者高收益率的理财产品。

China experienced an equity market bubble in 2007, when the Shanghai index topped 6,000 points before slumping to 1,700 in less than a year. Having been burnt once, many would-be equity investors now prefer investment products offered by banks, which they believe will provide them with a decent return. A boom in corporate bonds has also sucked a large amount of capital from the stock market.

中国曾在2007年经历了一次股市泡沫，当时上证综指飙升至6000点上方，可不到一年后，该指数就跌回1700点。经受了这样的挫折后，许多潜在的股民现在更喜欢银行提供的投资产品，他们相信此类产品将带来丰厚的回报。公司债券的繁荣，也从股市抽走了大量资本。

Hence the apparent unresponsiveness to more positive news. Recent data from China suggest its economic slowdown may have run its course. Trade figures for October showed a bounce, while manufacturing, industrial production and retail sales have all turned a corner. Fears over a hard landing, at least in the short term, have eased.

于是就出现了股市貌似对比较积极的消息无动于衷的现象。近期中国发布的数据似乎表明，经济放缓可能已到终点。10月的贸易数据出现反弹，而制造业活动、工业产出和零售销售额都扭转了颓势。至少就短期而言，对于硬着陆的担心已有所缓解。

The mainland stock market has shown no signs of improvement this year, lagging behind other equity indices. The Shanghai Composite is the worst performing main index in Asia, falling 10 per cent in 2012 and now flirting with lows last seen in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

中国内地股市今年没有出现好转迹象，落后于其它股指。上证综指是亚洲表现最糟糕的主要股指，2012年下跌 10%，接近雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭之后曾经达到的低位。

Yesterday the index took another downward step, dropping 0.9 per cent to 1,973, leaving the market trading at 8.4 times estimated 2013 earnings, compared with an average of 11.2 times for Asia ex-Japan.

昨日上证综指延续跌势，下跌0.9%，至1973点，使整个股市基于2013年估计盈利的预期市盈率为8.4倍，低于亚洲除日本以外的股市的平均值（11.2倍）。

Energy-related stocks have been the biggest drag this year, with PetroChinadown 12.6 per cent, China Shenhua Energyoff 11.6 per cent and Sinopeclower by 18 per cent. Yet there are some bright spots, such as property shares. Poly Real Estate, for example, is up 31.4 per cent since the start of the year.

能源板块股票今年成为最大拖累，中石油(PetroChina)下跌12.6%，中国神华能源(China Shenhua Energy)下跌11.6%，中石化(Sinopec)下跌 18%。但是也有一些亮点，如房地产板块股票。保利地产(Poly Real Estate)今年迄今上涨31.4%。

Shanghai’s weakness has flown in the face of efforts by Chinese regulators to boost international participation. In June, Beijing relaxed rules for foreign investors wishing to apply for a licence to trade shares on the mainland, while officials from the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges travelled to Japan, Europe and the US in September in a bid to attract new investment.

上海股市的疲弱，似乎与中国监管机构加大国际参与度的努力格格不入。6月，北京方面放松了相关规则，让境外投资者更易于获得内地股票交易牌照，上海和深圳证交所的官员们也在9月份前往日本、欧洲和美国，以求吸引新投资。

Where there have been clear signs of life is in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index – the index of H-shares – has rallied strongly since September, as the latest round of quantitative easing, or emergency asset-buying, by the Federal Reserve has spurred investors to look to riskier assets.

香港则出现了明显的复苏迹象。恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)——即H股指数——自9月以来强劲上涨，美联储(Federal Reserve)最新一轮量化宽松，或称紧急资产购买，推动投资者转向风险较高的资产。

Fund flow data have also pointed to a growing appetite for China. Last week, investors added $341m to China funds, making it the top country pick among global emerging markets, according to data from EPFR. An October survey of global fund managers conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed confidence in the Chinese economy had surged to its highest level since July 2009.

资金流动数据也显示，各方对中国的胃口不断加大。根据基金跟踪公司EPFR的数据，上周，投资者向中国基金增投3.41亿美元，使中国成为全球新兴市场的首眩美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 10月份对全球基金经理进行的调查显示，各方对中国经济的信心已飙升至2009年7月以来的最高位。

International investors need not see the poor performance of equities in Shanghai as a negative indicator of broader economic sentiment in China, says Jonathan Garner, head of Asian and emerging market equity strategy at Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲及新兴市场股票策略主管乔纳森·加纳(Jonathan Garner)表示，国际投资者并不需要把上海股市的糟糕表现，视为中国整体经济情绪的一个负面指标。

“The A-share market is segmented, domestic and retail-investor driven, says Mr Garner. “I don’t buy the idea that it tells you anything about the economy.

“A股市场是割裂的，而且受到国内散户投资者的驱动，加纳表示。“我不认为它在任何程度上反映了实际经济形势。

Andrew Swan, head of Asian fundamental equities at BlackRock, believes many foreign investors had simply become overly worried about the state of China’s economy and are now slowly putting money back into the market via H-shares and China funds as the economic data improves.

贝莱德(BlackRock)亚洲基本股票主管施安祖(Andrew Swan)相信，此前许多境外投资者对中国经济状况担心过度了，随着经济数据出现起色，他们现在正通过H股和中国基金，慢慢重新把资金投入中国股市。

“Unless the China story completely derails, you’re not paying very much for growth, says Gigi Chan, who manages the China opportunities fund at Threadneedle Investments.

“除非中国故事完全出问题，否则你没有付出很大代价就买到了经济增长，为Threadneedle Investments管理中国机遇基金的Gigi Chan表示。

Not everyone is convinced. John Woods, chief Asian strategist at Citi Private Bank, believes the Hong Kong rally will crack. He says: “I don’t think there are any more prescient investors than A-share investors and they really haven’t bought into the [H-share] enthusiasm. He believes the market should be more concerned about corporate profitability.

并不是所有人都认同这种观点。花旗私人银行(Citi Private Bank)首席亚洲策略师约翰·伍兹(John Woods)相信，香港股市此轮涨势将会受挫。他表示：“我认为没有谁比A股投资者更有先见之明，他们真的不受（H股）乐观情绪的影响。他相信，市场应当更加关注企业的盈利能力。

“There’s an awful lot of expectation, everyone is focused on valuation, says Mr Woods. “Just because it’s cheap, doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper.

“目前人们有很多期望，大家都紧盯着估值水平，伍兹表示。“单是因为股价便宜，并不意味着它就不会变得更便宜。