朝鲜火箭发射考验金正恩

Just eight months after launching a rocket that stayed in the air for only 80 seconds, North Korea's plan to shoot another is shaping up as tool for legitimizing its new dictator as much as testing its military capability.

八个月前，朝鲜发射的一枚火箭在空中仅停留了80秒钟；仅仅八个月后，朝鲜再次发射火箭的计划既是将该国新任独裁者的地位合法化的一个工具，同时也是对朝鲜军事实力的一次检验。

North Korea in several ways is treating the launch differently than the one that failed in April, most noticeably by not telling its own people about it ahead of time. Also unlike then, North Korea hasn't invited foreign journalists to inspect the rocket and its purported satellite payload.

从很多方面看，朝鲜对待此次火箭发射的态度都与今年4月失败的那次不同，最主要的一点是没有预先告知朝鲜民众。有别于上次发射的还有一点是，朝鲜没有邀请外国记者参观火箭和据说火箭所搭载的卫星。

The differences continued over the weekend when North Korean media announced early Sunday that scientists were considering delaying the launch for unspecified reasons. The launch window is scheduled to open Monday. The news was conveyed around 1 a.m. local time and only on the international arm of the Korean Central News Agency. There remained no evidence that North Korea had revealed the preparations internally.

上周末时情况依然如此。朝鲜媒体周日早间报道说，科研人员正在考虑推迟火箭发射，但没有透露具体原因。发射窗口定于周一开启。推迟火箭发射的消息于朝鲜当地时间周日凌晨一点左右公布，并且只在朝中社(Korean Central News Agency)国际频道上发布。目前仍没有证据显示朝鲜对内公布了准备发射火箭的计划。

Observers in South Korea late last week reported that activities at the North Korean launch site appeared to have been slowed by snowstorms that swept the Korean peninsula Wednesday to Friday. However, one South Korean government official on Friday noted that, because the actual launch tower is covered, there are limits to the satellite photography that outsiders rely on to determine what's happening.

驻韩国的观察人士上周末反映，朝鲜火箭发射场的活动似乎因上周三至周五席卷了朝鲜半岛的暴风雪而放缓。不过，一位韩国政府官员上周五指出，由于实际的发射塔被掩盖起来，卫星图片存在局限，外部人士难以据此推断发射场的情况。

Those changes are causing analysts and officials in other countries to suspect that, no matter how the launch fares, the country's authoritarian regime will tell its people that it succeeded. Before the delay announcement, some analysts speculated the regime would time its internal announcement to the one-year anniversary on Dec. 17 of the death of former leader Kim Jong Il.

这些变化令其他国家的分析人士和官员不禁怀疑，无论发射结果如何，朝鲜的威权政府都会对内宣布火箭发射取得了成功。在推迟火箭发射的消息发布之前，一些分析人士猜测，朝鲜政府将把对内宣布的时间安排在12月17日前领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)去世一周年纪念日。

North Korea has launched four rockets since 1998, all perceived by outsiders as cover for development of long-range missiles that Pyongyang hopes will eventually carry nuclear weapons. All four failed to reach space, though North Korea claimed three made it.

自1998年以来，朝鲜共发射了四枚火箭。外部人士认为这四次发射都是朝鲜远程导弹研制的一种掩护。平壤希望其远程导弹最终能够携带核武器。四次火箭发射都没有将卫星送入太空，不过朝鲜声称有三次取得了成功。

Since the failure of the April launch, which was timed to commemorate the centennial of the birth of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung, North Korea watchers have surmised that the country would try again before the year of commemoration was over.

今年4月的火箭发射适逢朝鲜开国领袖金日成(Kim Il Sung)诞辰100周年。自那次火箭发射失败以来，朝鲜问题观察人士就猜测，今年年底前朝鲜会再次试射火箭。

North Korea was known to have prepared two rockets before April. Since then, intelligence officials in South Korea and elsewhere have detected new tests of rocket engines and other activity at the North's main launch site along its northwest coast.

据外界所知，今年4月之前朝鲜曾准备过两次火箭发射。此后，韩国和其他地方的情报人员监测到在朝鲜西北沿海地区的主发射场对火箭引擎进行新的测试和其他活动。

And when North Korea on Dec. 1 announced that it would attempt a new launch sometime between Dec. 10 and 22, it said it was doing so at the 'behest' of Kim Jong Il, who is viewed as having originally ordered such a launch as a tribute to his father.

12月1日朝鲜宣布将于12月10日至22日择日再次试射火箭，当时朝鲜说此次火箭发射是按照金正日的命令进行的。外界认为金正日当初下此命令是为了向其父致意。

But over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, North Korean defectors and other observers have also detected signs that the new dictator─ Kim Jong Eun, son of Kim Jong Il and grandson of Kim Il Sung─is contending with growing internal strife. The most visible evidence of such difficulty was a sudden change of military commanders in July. Reports surfaced last month that the young Mr. Kim replaced the military commander for a second time, though the regime hasn't confirmed them.

不过，过去两个月中，情报和军事人员、朝鲜脱北者和其他观察人士也发现有迹象显示朝鲜新独裁者、金正日之子、金日成之孙金正恩(Kim Jong Eun)正在努力应对国内日益加剧的争斗。最明显的证据是今年7月突然更换了最高军事领导人。上个月有报道说，金正恩二度更换了军事指挥官，不过朝鲜政府一直未对此加以证实。

Stability in North Korea 'is less encouraging now than in the early months of his leadership,' a senior South Korean government official said last week.

一位韩国政府高级官员上周说，从稳定程度来看，目前朝鲜的局势比金正恩上任后的最初几个月更不乐观。

n Washington, U.S. officials said they aren't certain if Mr. Kim completely controls the North's military and said the missile program provides one opportunity to strengthen his nationalist and military credentials.

在华盛顿，美国官员表示不确定金正恩是否完全掌握着朝鲜军队，并表示导弹计划为他增加民族主义资历和军事资历提供了机会。

Amid steady warnings not to go ahead with the launch, however, U.S. officials have declined to detail the consequences other than to say they would seek unspecified United Nations action in concert with Japan and South Korea. Officials from the three countries met in Washington Dec. 4.

但在不断警告朝鲜不要继续发射之时，美国官员拒绝详谈继续发射的后果，只表示将与日本和韩国共同寻求通过联合国采取行动，但没透露具体是什么行动。三国官员于12月4日在华盛顿举行了会谈。

Washington also could move to seek ways to intensify sanctions on Pyongyang, but said it wouldn't specify possible punitive moves ahead of a launch.

华盛顿方面也有可能想办法加大对平壤方面的制裁。但美方表示不会在发射之前透露具体可能采取哪些惩罚性措施。

'I mean, there's always ways to toughen enforcement of sanctions,' Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman said on Thursday. 'They can always be tweaked or modified so that there's better enforcement of existing sanctions.'

美国国务院发言人托纳(Mark Toner)上周四说，我的意思是，制裁措施总是有办法加强执行的；制裁措施总可以调整或修正，从而让现有制裁措施得到更好执行的。

South Korean officials said they believe that, if North Korea proceeds with the launch, China may agree to increase the number of North Korean companies and other entities that are on the U.N. sanctions list.

韩国官员表示，如果朝鲜继续推动发射，他们相信中国将同意增加联合国制裁名单上朝鲜企业和其他实体的数量。

China, North Korea's political ally and economic benefactor, has taken a slightly firmer line against the prospective launch than it did in April. China's foreign ministry spokesman said that North Korea is entitled to the peaceful use of space, but added it should 'act prudently' and cited the U.N. Security Council resolutions against it.

中国是朝鲜的政治盟友和经济施惠者，现在它的态度比4月份时略微更显强硬。中国外交部发言人说，朝鲜有和平利用外空的权利，但考虑到联合国安理会的制裁决议等因素，朝鲜应当“慎重行事。

In Japan, the launch has become a political football amid an election campaign. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is using it to underscore his diplomatic credentials and hint that his hawkish main opponent is too hot-headed. At the same time, chief opposition party leader Shinzo Abe has criticized Mr. Noda for having agreed to reopen negotiations with Pyongyang even as North Korea has proceeded apace with its rocket program.

在日本，这次发射已经成为选战中的一个政治皮球。首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)利用它强调自己的外交资历，并暗示持强硬态度的主要对手过于冲动。而主要反对党党首安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)曾批评野田佳彦在朝鲜迅速推进火箭计划的同时依然同意跟它重启谈判。

Those bilateral talks, which Japan suspended Dec. 2, began in August and marked the first such formal discussions between the two countries in four years, according to the Japanese foreign ministry.

据日本外务省说，日本于12月2日暂停的双边谈判始于8月份，是两国四年来举行的首轮正式谈判。

On Ishigaki, one of the outer islands of the Okinawa chain 2,000 kilometers southwest of Tokyo, Japan's Self-Defense Forces delivered on Wednesday a surface-to-air missile defense system, repeating the procedure it had gone though just eight months earlier. Japan's defense ministry also plans to monitor the launch from naval destroyers equipped with advanced Aegis radar and ballistic missile-defense systems.

在东京西南2,000公里、位于冲绳岛链外岛之中的石垣岛上，日本自卫队上周三部署了地对空导弹防御系统，重复了八个月之前的动作。日本防卫省也计划利用装载先进“宙斯盾(Aegis)雷达和弹道导弹防御系统的驱逐舰来监测朝鲜的发射。

In the Philippines, which is the nearest land mass on the projected trajectory of the North Korean rocket, officials plan to reroute some flights and have warned ships to avoid areas where debris may fall. Other flights in the region are being rerouted to avoid the planned path of the rocket.

菲律宾是朝鲜火箭计划轨道上距离最近的陆地区域。该国官员打算将部分航班改道，并提醒船只避开可能有碎片落下的区域。地区内还有其他航班正在为避开火箭的计划路线而改道。

Militarily, American naval officers see the launch as Pyongyang's hope to show the world it can build a missile with the reach they want, said Adm. Samuel Locklear, head of the U.S. Pacific Command. 'To the degree that they will be more successful than they were last time, in such a short period of time…we'll just have to see how it goes,' Adm. Locklear said.

在军事方面，美军太平洋司令部司令、海军上将洛克利尔(Samuel Locklear)说，海军军官认为这次发射表明，平壤希望向世界证明，它可以打造一枚打击范围达到自己所想的导弹。洛克利尔说，考虑到这么短的时间他们就可能比上一次更加成功，我们将需要关注它的进展。

Beyond military achievement, analysts suggest that, by acting so quickly after the April failure, North Korea may hope that its critics will grow weary of protesting and censuring it. 'They continue to develop weapons out of belief that, if they continue to provoke, international society will approve at the end,' said Shin Beom-chul, chief research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis in Seoul.

分析人士提出，除了展示军事成就以外，朝鲜在4月份失败之后如此迅速地行动，可能也是希望批评者因倦怠而不再提出抗议和非难。韩国国防分析研究院(Korea Institute for Defense Analysis)首席研究员Shin Beom-chul说，他们继续开发武器是因为他们抱有这样一种信念，如果他们继续挑衅，国际社会终将同意。