日本右转是虚弱之象

On December 16 Japan will hold an election and if the polls are correct, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will be replaced by Shinzo Abe, the opposition leader and former PM. If so, he would become Japan’s seventh prime minister in the past six years.

日本将在12月16日举行大眩如果民调靠谱的话，首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)将被反对党党魁、前首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)取代。若果真如此，安倍晋三将成为日本过去6年来的第7位首相。

Japanese public opinion is shifting to the right and in a more nationalistic direction. Not only has Mr Abe recently visited the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial second world war memorial, but politicians to his right have formed new parties and staked out nationalistic positions. Shintaro Ishihara, the former Tokyo mayor who helped spur the dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands, speaks of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons. As once did Toru Hasihmoto, the 43 year-old mayor of Osaka and founder of the “restoration association party.

日本舆论正转向右翼和民族主义色彩更浓的方向。最近不仅安倍晋三参拜了有争议的二战纪念馆靖国神社，而且比他还要右倾的右翼政客们组建了新的政党，并奉行民族主义立常曾帮助挑起中日尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands，中国称为“钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿)纠纷的前东京都知事石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)声称日本需要拥有核武器。43岁的大阪市市长、维新党创始人桥下彻(Toru Hashimoto)也曾发表此类言论。

All this has caused alarm in Beijing. I recently met leaders there as part of a delegation of four former US officials charged with explaining the American position on the Senkaku Islands. I was struck by the way Chinese officials expressed concern about the rise of Japan’s rightwing militarism. They charged that its government’s purchase of the islands from a private owner was designed to undercut the Cairo and Potsdam declarations that were part of the post-second world war settlement.

这一切引起了中国政府的不安。最近，一个由4名美国前官员组成的代表团前往中国，解释美国在尖阁诸岛上的立场，我作为代表团的一名成员会晤了中国领导人。令我印象深刻的是，中国官员对日本右翼军国主义的兴起感到非常担忧。他们指责称，日本政府从私人所有者手中购买尖阁诸岛的目的，是为了破坏《开罗宣言》和《波茨坦公告》的安排，这两份文件是国际社会对二战后世界秩序安排的一部分。

One should be wary of such alarmism. A Chinese minister told me some years ago never to forget the 1930s, but Japan today is very different from the military-dominated society of the 1930s. While some politicians talk about amending Article 9 of the pacifist constitution to allow Japan to exercise its right of collective self-defence, the military is firmly under civilian control. Moreover, a Japan that participates in the anti-piracy coalition off the shores of Somalia or in UN peacekeeping operations is to be welcomed. Polls show that a large majority of Japanese reject the idea of developing nuclear arms and prefer to rely on the US-Japan Security Treaty. As one friend said: “We are interested in conservative nationalism, not militarist nationalism. No one wants to return to the 1930s.

人们应该小心此类危言耸听。中国一位部长级官员多年前告诉我，永远不要忘记上世纪30年代，但如今的日本完全不同于上世纪30年代军方主导的社会。尽管某些政客提出修正日本和平宪法第九条，以便让日本行使集体自卫权，但军队仍牢牢掌握在文官的手里。此外，一个参与打击索马里海盗或联合国维和行动的日本是受人欢迎的。民调显示，绝大多数日本人不支持发展核武器，他们宁愿依赖《美日安保条约》(US-Japan Security Treaty)。正如一位朋友所言：“我们对保守民族主义、而不是军国民族主义感兴趣。没有人希望重新回到上世纪30年代。

The real problem is not that Japan is becoming too powerful in international affairs but that it may become too weak and inward-turning. The question is whether Japan wishes to continue to be a great power nation, or if it is content to drift into second-tier status. China has passed Japan as the second-largest economy, and Japan faces a debt to gross domestic product ratio of more than 200 per cent, an ageing population and a declining birth rate. If this means that Japan turns inward to a reactive populist nationalism rather than play an active role on the world stage, the world as well as Japan will be worse off. Japan has much to contribute.

真正的问题不在于日本在国际事务中变得过于强大，而是它可能变得过于虚弱和内向。问题是：日本是希望继续成为一个强国，还是打算沦为一个二流国家？中国已超越日本，成为全球第二大经济体，同时日本债务与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率超过200%，而且面临人口老龄化和出生率下降的问题。如果这意味着日本转向被动的民粹民族主义，而不是在世界舞台上扮演积极角色，那对世界和日本都是不利的。日本可以做出许多贡献。

It is now the second-largest contributor to the UN and other multilateral institutions; a significant provider of overseas development assistance; and the world’s third-largest economy, with a consumer sector twice the size of China’s.

日本目前是联合国以及其他多边机构的第二大出资国，也是海外发展援助的重要提供国，同时还是全球第三大经济体，其消费部门的规模是中国的两倍。

Japanese politics is showing the signs of two decades of low growth, which has led to fiscal problems and a more insular attitude among the young. Undergraduate enrolment of Japanese students in US universities has fallen by more than 50 per cent since 2000. Japan’s political system is democratic but far from stable. Yoichi Funibashi, the former editor of the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, argues that “there’s a sense in Japan that we are unprepared to be a tough, competitive player in this global world.

日本政治反映出20年的低经济增长，后者导致了财政问题，并促使年轻人变得更加偏狭。自2000年以来，前往美国大学就读本科的日本学生人数下降了逾50%。日本政治体制是民主的，但极不稳定。《朝日资讯》(Asahi Shimbun)前主编船桥洋一(Yoichi Funibashi)表示，“在日本，人们有一种感觉，那就是我们还没有准备好在这个全球化的世界成为一个坚强而富有竞争力的参与者。

Many younger Japanese leaders would like to change this pattern. When I asked about the rightward trend in politics, some young Diet members said they hoped it might produce a realignment among political parties that would lead to greater longevity of prime ministers and more effective government. If a moderate nationalism is harnessed to produce political reform, and the election produces such a realignment, the results could be good for Japan. The danger, however, is that the nationalist mood leads to symbolic and populist positions that win votes at home but antagonise Japan’s neighbours.

许多较为年轻的日本领导人想要改变这种模式。当我问及日本政治上的右翼倾向时，一些年轻的国会议员表示，他们希望这会促使各政党重新洗牌、结盟，从而带来任职更长的首相和更有效的政府。如果利用温和的民族主义来推动政治改革，而此次选举能够促成此类洗牌，结果可能有利于日本。然而，危险在于，民族主义情绪所导致的象征性的民粹立场，可能在国内赢得选票，却会激怒日本的邻国。

China is undergoing its own nationalist resurgence, and the Communist party relies for its legitimacy not on elections but on a combination of high economic growth and nationalism. Hawks benefit. For example, General Liu Yuan argues that China should cast aside restraint, and Major General Luo Yuan urges the dispatch of hundreds of fishing boats to fight a maritime guerrilla war to seize territories claimed by China. Such positions may not be typical, but the danger is that extreme nationalists in China and Japan will feed each other and create a climate that makes it difficult to maintain the prosperity that has been so beneficial to the region and to the world.

中国国内的民族主义也在重新兴起，而中共执政的合法性不是依靠选举，而是依靠经济高速增长和民族主义的结合。这有利于鹰派官员。例如，刘源将军表示，中国应该放弃忍让，而罗源少将则主张出动数百条渔船同日本展开海上游击战，以夺取中国宣称拥有主权的领土。此类立场可能并不具有代表性，但危险在于，中日两国的极端民族主义者将在相互较劲中壮大，制造出一种难以保持迄今对地区乃至世界非常有益的繁荣的氛围。

The writer is a professor at Harvard and author of ‘The Future of Power’

本文作者为美国哈佛大学(Harvard)教授，著有《权力的未来》(The Future of Power)一书