巴克莱纳普：2013年美股将先抑后扬

While Barclays strategist Barry Knapp is optimistic 2013 will turn out fine for stocks, the early part of the year could be particularly problematic.

虽然巴克莱(Barclays)策略师纳普(Barry Knapp)乐观地认为美股在2013年终将有不错的表现，但明年上半年美股走势可能尤其不容乐观。

Earlier Monday Knapp unveiled a 1525 S&P 500 price target for the end of next year, or about a 7% gain from current levels. But getting to that estimate won't be easy, at least at the beginning of the year, as uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff will likely prompt stocks to kick off 2013 on a sour note.

周一早些时候，纳普对标准普尔500指数明年的走势做出预测，他认为该指数明年末能达到1,525点，较目前点位上涨大约7%。但要走到这一点位并不容易，至少在明年初是这样，因为围绕财政悬崖的不确定因素可能会让股指在明年初走低。

'The first significant market move next year could be downward,' Knapp says in a note to clients. 'Earnings estimates look overly optimistic, share prices have overshot core fundamentals and policy uncertainty is quite elevated relative to market risk measures.'

纳普在发给客户的一份研究报告中说，明年初市场主要走势可能是下行。盈利预期显得过于乐观，核心基本面难以支撑股价，相对于市场的风险指标，政策的不确定性很大。

He's convinced, however, that such a downturn would be shallow and short-lived as opposed to the beginning of a sizable move lower.

但纳普确信市场下行只是暂时的，且下跌幅度不会太大，这并非股指大幅走低行情的开始。

'Overall, it's tough for us to see a particularly poor end to 2013, but policymaker missteps could lead to a messy first half, particularly if it opened up weakness in Europe and Asian export channels,' Knapp says. 'Still, we think the probability of the market staying depressed is low and we'd view a market downturn as a buying opportunity, particularly for capital spending-exposed cyclical stocks.'

纳普说，总的来看，到2013年末股市的表现不太可能特别差，但决策者的失误可能导致明年上半年股市表现糟糕，尤其是在这导致欧洲和亚洲出口渠道疲软的情况下。不过我们认为市场维持低迷的可能性较低，我们将市场低迷视作一个买入机会，尤其是对那些易受资本支出影响的周期性股票而言。

The S&P 500 recently rose 0.1% to 1419.

标准普尔500指数近期涨0.1%，至1,419点。

Knapp is slightly less optimistic than the Street consensus. The 11 Wall Street strategists that have released their 2013 estimates expect the S&P 500, on average, to finish next year at 1530, according to Birinyi Associates.

相比华尔街分析师的普遍预期，纳普显得稍稍没那么乐观。股市研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据表明，11位已经发布2013年股市预期的华尔街策略师平均预计，标准普尔500指数明年末将收于1,530点。

Citigroup and Bank of America, thus far, are the most optimistic, with 2013 targets of 1615 and 1600, respectively. Both estimates would wipe out the S&P 500's previous record high of 1565, set in October 2007.

到目前为止花旗集团(Citigroup)和美国银行(Bank of America)最为乐观，两家机构分别预测2013年末标普500指数将收于1,615点和1,600点。这两个预期水平都将超越标普500指数在2007年10月创下的1,565点的纪录高位。

Wells Fargo UBS and Morgan Stanley are currently the most bearish, with targets of 1390, 1425 and 1434, respectively.

富国银行(Wells Fargo)、瑞银(UBS)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)则是目前最为悲观的三家机构，其给出的预测点位分别为1,390点、1,425点和1,434点。

Knapp began 2012 with a year-end target of 1330, which is about 6% below current levels. While his estimate fluctuated throughout the year, he lowered his view to 1325, from 1395, the day after the presidential election, when the S&P 500 tumbled below 1400.

纳普在2012年初曾预测今年年末标普500指数将收于1,330点，这比当前点位低了大约6%。今年全年他的预期都在波动，在美国总统大选结束后一天，纳普将自己的预期从1,395点下调至1,325点，当时标普500指数跌破1,400点。

At that time, he suggested investors should cut risk ahead of the brewing fiscal battle over large tax increases and spending cuts. The post-election stock swoon continued for more than a week before the market bounced back beginning in mid-November.

当时，他建议投资者在因大幅增税和减支而不断发酵的财政之争开始前降低风险。大选结束后股市持续下跌了一周以上，之后于11月中旬开始反弹。

Through Friday's close the S&P 500 is up 13% on a year-to-date basis.

截至上周五收盘，标普500指数较年初涨了13%。

Even as Knapp is still concerned about the fiscal cliff, he's optimistic that positive catalysts will overshadow negative concerns and fuel the market higher by the end of 2013.

尽管纳普仍对财政悬崖心存担忧，但他乐观地认为，利好因素将令负面担忧情绪黯然失色，在2013年底前推高股市。

'In our base case, we assume there will be a decent amount of fiscal drag,' Knapp says. 'However, we expect this fiscal drag and policy uncertainty to dissipate in the second half of 2013. Earnings growth deceleration, attributable to slowing global growth and the U.S. political environment, should trough before mid-year.'

纳普说，根据我们按照基本情况作出的预测，我们假定财政问题会对股指形成一定拖累。不过，我们预计财政拖累和政策不确定性因素将在2013年下半年消除。收益增长减速的趋势应该在年中前见底，收益增长减速的原因是全球经济增长放缓以及美国的政治环境。