格鲁吉亚给日本的教训

Shintaro Ishihara, the former governor of Tokyo, recently unveiled a new political party which, he says, will help build a “stronger and tougher Japan. This is the same Shintaro Ishihara who recently provoked an increasingly bitter row with China over control of a string of islands in the East China Sea. As Mr Ishihara and other leading Japanese politicians strike a more strident foreign policy tone and a more aggressive attitude toward China, they should consider the recent history of a quite different country in a quite different region.

前东京都知事石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)最近组建新政党，他说该党的宗旨是建立起“更强大、更强硬的日本。正是这位石原慎太郎今年引发了日中围绕东海一个群岛控制权的日趋激烈的争执。在石原慎太郎和日本其他重量级政客奉行更加尖锐的外交政策，对中国采取更加咄咄逼人的态度之际，他们应当考虑近年另一个地区另一个国家的遭遇。

When Mikheil Saakashvili rode Georgia’s Rose Revolution to power in 2004, the international community lauded the small nation’s transition to democracy. Mr Saakashvili quickly reached out to Washington and the Bush administration, eager to build a new strategic friendship in the region, reached back. But US officials worried aloud that Mr Saakashvili, convinced that US support offered him a shield, might stumble into conflict with Russia, Georgia’s hostile neighbour to the north. Four years later, exactly what happened.

2004年，当米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利(Mikheil Saakashvili)借格鲁吉亚玫瑰革命上台时，国际社会对这个弹丸小国的民主转型表示赞许。萨卡什维利很快向美国政府伸出友好之手，急于在该地区建立新战略合作关系的布什政府做出了积极回应。但一些美国官员公开表示担心，萨卡什维利可能相信美国的支持给了他一个盾牌，同不睦的北方邻国俄罗斯发生冲突。四年后，担忧成真。

Georgia’s young president, eager to score patriotic political points by standing up to the superpower bully next door, sent tanks into the breakaway region of South Ossetia, giving Moscow the opening it needed to push the Georgians almost all the way back to Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital. The US remained on the sidelines, reminding Georgia’s president that it had warned him about poking the bear. As then Secretary of State Colin Powell had warned him, the United States would not go to war with Russia over a breakaway province in the southern Caucasus.

这位格鲁吉亚的年轻总统意欲通过对抗武力强大的邻国，打“爱国牌，在政治上得分。于是，他派出坦克侵入分离的南奥塞梯，使俄罗斯得到一个良机，几乎将格鲁吉亚人一路打回首都第比利斯。美国则一直袖手旁观，提醒格鲁吉亚总统，美国早就警告过他不要招惹俄罗斯。正如时任美国国务卿的科林·鲍威尔(Colin Powell)曾经警告萨卡什维利的，美国不会为了南高加索的一个分离地区而同俄罗斯开战。

There is a lesson here for Japan as tensions build over a string of contested islands in the East China Sea. Japan calls these rocks the Senkaku Islands, China calls them the Diaoyu Islands, and both countries claim ownership. When Japan recently moved to assert its claim, anti-Japanese protests surged through Chinese cities, and the Chinese government let them burn a bit longer than usual before dousing the flames.

在东海争议群岛引起的紧张局势愈演愈烈之际，日本应当接受格鲁吉亚的教训。日本将这个群岛称为“尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands)，中国称其为“钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿，两国均宣称对其拥有主权。当日本近期采取行动坚持其领土主张时，中国一些城市爆发反日示威，而中国政府在平息事态之前，纵容示威持续了较长时间。

Chinese demonstrators destroyed many Japanese stores and products and called for boycotts of Japanese companies, inflicting serious damage in a market that is increasingly important for Japanese corporations. In September Toyota and Honda’s sales in China were respectively 49 per cent and 41 per cent down on the same month last year. Some Japanese firms are rethinking their expectations of sales in China and reluctantly looking toward other countries for a larger share of exports and supply chains.

中国示威者打砸多家日本商店，毁坏大量日本商品，并呼吁抵制日本公司，在对日本企业日益重要的中国市场造成了严重损害。今年9月，丰田(Toyota)和本田(Honda)在中国的销量同比分别下降49%和41%。一些日本公司正在重新调整对中国销量的预期，并不情愿地将目光投向其他市场，谋求更大的出口和供应链份额。

In addition, China is becoming more assertive in the contested waters between the two countries. In the East China Sea, China has moved ships into Japanese territory almost every day for the past month. Beijing’s message to Tokyo is clear: “Don’t push your luck.

此外，中国对两国之间有争议海域的态度也更为坚决。在过去一个月里，中国几乎每天都要派遣公务船进入东海的日本领海。中国政府向日本发出的信号很明确：不要得寸进尺。

The concern in Washington is that Tokyo isn’t listening. Despite both the commercial and security dangers, some Japanese officials have lately tried to score points at home with an aggressive posture abroad, including in dust-ups with China. Old arguments about the 1930s are stiffening spines in both countries. The growing prominence of leaders like Toru Hashimoto, the mayor of Osaka, who has built another new nationalist party, and men like Mr Ishihara who have actively brought Japan and China closer to commercial and political conflict, has raised temperatures across the region. It was Mr Ishihara who provoked the Senkaku spat by threatening to use municipal funds to buy the islands.

美国方面担心日本对此置若罔闻。最近，一些日本官员不顾商业和安全危险，对外亮出强硬姿态（包括与中国争吵），以求在国内得分。有关20世纪30年代的旧争论令两国剑拔弩张。一些领导人的影响力增加使得地区局势升温，这些领导人包括成立另一民族主义政党的大阪府知事桥下彻(Toru Hashimoto)，以及像石原慎太郎这样积极把日中两国推向商业和政治冲突的人。正是石原慎太郎威胁动用市政资金购买尖阁诸岛，导致了尖阁诸岛争端的爆发。

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party may well return to power following upcoming elections—elevating party leader and former prime minister Shinzo Abe back to his old job. He will have to move quickly to build his popularity with voters—this is a country that has burned through 17 prime ministers in 24 years—if he is to earn enough public confidence and political capital to extend his rule. He has offered conciliatory comments toward Beijing, but an October visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, resting place of men that Japan’s neighbours consider war criminals, suggests he might be willing to push things a bit further with China when his poll numbers slide.

日本即将到来的选举过后，自民党(LDP)很可能重掌大权，把现任党魁、前首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)送上老位子。如果他想赢得公众信心和政治资本来延长执政时间，他就必须迅速行动，为自己凝聚人气（日本在24年里换了17位首相）。安培晋三已向北京发表了和解言论，但他在10份参拜靖国神社(Yasukuni shrine)似乎表明，一旦支持率下滑，他可能不惜稍稍绷紧对华关系。

Japan is not Georgia, a small country that must lie in Russia’s long shadow and make friends where it can. Georgia is a developing country with crumbling infrastructure and a host of fundamental economic challenges. Japan, for all its problems, remains the world’s third largest economy. It is a stable industrialised democracy and home to some of the world’s most dynamic multinational companies.

日本不是格鲁吉亚。格鲁吉亚是个小国，必然躺在俄罗斯的巨大身影下面，竭尽全力广交朋友。格鲁吉亚是个发展中国家，基础设施破败，经济存在一系列根本性挑战。日本则不同。尽管日本问题重重，但它依然是世界第三大经济体。日本是个稳定的工业化民主国家，拥有一些全球最具活力的跨国企业。

That said, Japan should learn from Georgia and avoid a confrontation with its neighbour. China still needs access to Japanese markets. It wants to welcome Japanese companies and investments, and gain more access to Japanese technology. But it doesn’t need any of these things as much as it did five years ago, and the trend is not good for Japan. As China signs deals with new partners in the region, as Chinese customers in the US and Europe recover more of their purchasing power, and as Chinese consumers are able to afford more Chinese-made products, Japan’s importance for China will continue to diminish.

尽管如此，日本应该汲取格鲁吉亚的教训，避免与邻国发生冲突。中国仍需进入日本市常中国希望欢迎日本的企业和投资，获取更多日本科技。但中国已经不像5年前那么迫切地需要这些东西了，而发展趋势不利于日本。随着中国与该地区的更多伙伴签署协议，随着中国的欧美客户购买力进一步复苏，随着中国消费者能够负担更多中国制造的产品，日本对中国的重要性将持续下降。

China’s leaders are just as likely as Japan’s to try to build their popularity by demonising an often threatening neighbour. In Georgia Mr Saakashvili hoped to boost national pride with a quick win, but it was Vladmir Putin who came away looking like a winner. Japan’s leaders should keep that lesson in mind.

与日本领导人一样，中国领导人也很可能妖魔化往往构成威胁的邻国，以求在国内赢得人气。在格鲁吉亚，萨卡什维利希望通过迅速胜利来提振民族自豪感，但最终的胜利者似乎是弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)。日本领导人应该谨记这一教训。

Finally, Japanese Defence Minister Satoshi Morimoto called last week for a revision of Japan’s security alliance with the US to put greater emphasis on the Chinese maritime threat. Talk of historic partnerships is one thing, and US-Japanese relations are vitally important for both sides. But though Washington can and will come to Japan’s defence if China tried to take the Senkaku islands, it cannot defend Japanese companies that are sure to take a beating in Chinese markets. That’s the true battlefield.

最后，日本防卫大臣森本敏(Satoshi Morimoto)最近呼吁，重新修订日本与美国的安全同盟关系，更加注重中国的海上威胁。谈论历史伙伴关系是一回事，美日关系也确实对双方都举足轻重。但是，如果中国试图占领尖阁诸岛，尽管美国能够也将保卫日本，可美国无法保卫必将败走中国市场的日本企业。而那才是真正的战常

The best way for Japan to meet the challenge posed by rising China is to rebuild the dynamism of Japan’s economy from within and to build new commercial ties–in Asia and beyond. That will require wisdom, patience and political will. If the country’s next generation of leaders is up to the task, they will discover that success is the best defence of national interests.

日本应对崛起的中国构成的挑战的最佳方式是，从内部重建日本经济的活力，与亚洲及其他地区建立新的商业关系。这将需要智慧、耐心和政治意愿。如果日本的下一任领导人能够胜任这份任务，他们将发现，这种成功才是保卫国家利益的最佳手段。

The writer is the president of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, and author of ‘Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World’

本文作者是政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)总裁、《诸国为己：零重力世界的赢家与输家》(Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World)一书作者