“财政悬崖”缘何至关重要？

Rex Nutting has some good news for Washington politicians about the fiscal cliff. “There’s no urgency to reach a deal quickly, he wrote in these columns last week. Although tax and spending laws will change on Jan. 1, 2013, the effects of these changes will be spread out over a longer period, he writes.

关于“财政悬崖，纳丁(Rex Nutting)有一些好消息要传达给华盛顿的政界人士。他在上周的专栏文章中写道，不用那么快达成协议，没那么急。他说，尽管有关税收和政府支出的法律将在2013年1月1日出现变更，但这些变更的影响将在更长一段时间内显现出来。

Reducing government spending won’t have much effect, it’s true. Government outlays have risen from 20% of GDP in 2008 to 25% in 2012. But increasing taxes by $514 billion next year will make America less competitive and slow the economy. More businesses will go offshore and make fewer investments. People will spend less because more is going to Uncle Sam. (See table of tax changes.)

缩减政府支出不会有多大效果，这没错。政府支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已经从2008年的20%上升到2012年的25%。但是，明年增税5,140亿美元会降低美国的国际竞争力，拖累经济增速。将有越来越多的企业离开美国本土，同时将减少投资。美国人也会减少支出，因为有更多的收入被山姆大叔(Uncle Sam，即美国政府)拿走了。

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that going off the fiscal cliff will reduce GDP growth in 2013 by half a percentage point, and that the unemployment rate will rise to over 9%. Ninety percent of households will face tax increases next year, according to the Brookings Institution-Urban Institute Tax Policy Center.

美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预计，跌落“财政悬崖会让美国2013年的GDP增长减少0.5个百分点，失业率升到9%以上。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)和城市研究所(Urban Institute)联合组建的税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)的数据显示，九成家庭明年的税负将增加。

The Tax Foundation has estimated effects on households by state. At the upper end, a four-person household at median income in New Jersey would see a 7% increase in federal taxes of almost $7,000. Other states that would be hardest-hit include Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.

美国税务基金会(Tax Foundation)对各州家庭受到的影响做了估测。新泽西州当属受影响最厉害的行列。在那里，一个有着中等收入的四口之家其联邦税将增加7%，达到近7,000美元。另外，马里兰州、康涅狄格州和马萨诸塞州等也是受影响最大的州。

At the lower end, that same household in Hawaii would see a 4% increase, of $3,500. Similar states in that range include Colorado, Kansas, and Illinois.

同样为中等收入的四口之家在夏威夷的联邦税将增加4%，即3,500美元，增幅相对较校面临类似增幅的州还有科罗拉多州、堪萨斯州和伊利诺伊州。

Businesses plan ahead, and 48% of small business income is taxed at the 35% individual rate. If the Bush tax cuts expire and the top tax rate rises to 42%, including the new Medicare tax, some businesses will cut back. They may delay expansion and investment and lay off workers.

公司可提前进行规划。对小企业来说，公司收入的48%要被课以税率为35%的个人所得税。如果小布什的减税政策延期，且最高税率增至42%，包括新医疗保险税(Medicare tax)，那么部分企业就会缩减规模。具体来说，它们可能会推迟扩张和投资计划，并进行裁员。

Ending the 2% payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits will reduce Americans’ spending power. Plus, the federal individual income tax rate for the lowest income earners would rise from 10% to 15%. Both come out of employees’ paychecks.

结束2%的工资税削减并终止长期失业救济将削弱美国人的消费能力。再者，低收入人群缴纳的联邦个人所得税税率还将增加10%到15%。这些都出自雇员的工资。

The failure to pass a change in the alternative minimum tax for 2012 will have consequences for 2013 first-quarter growth. Without the fix, 28 million more people will pay additional taxes under the AMT, a tax originally set up to catch high income earners but which now traps millions of middle-income earners as well.

如不能通过对2012年替代性最低税(alternative minimum tax，简称AMT)的修改，就会对美国2013年第一财季的增长产生影响。不修改的话，按照AMT缴纳额外税款的人将增加2,800万。最初设立此税是针对高收入者，但现在数百万中等收入人群也不得不“束手就擒。

Acting Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Steven Miller, in a letter to House Ways and Means ranking minority member Sander Levin (D-MI), reported that the IRS has programmed its computers in the expectation that Congress would adjust the AMT, as it has done in prior years. Reprogramming the computers would take months, and 60 million taxpayers would be unable to file returns or get refunds until late March.

美国国税局(Internal Revenue Service)代理局长米勒(Steven Miller)在给众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)少数党领袖列文(Sander Levin)的信中宣称，国税局已经像往年一样，按照国会将调整AMT的预期对电脑程序进行调整。调整电脑程序将需要几个月的时间，明年3月底之前，6,000万纳税人将无法申请退税或拿到退款。

The IRS pays out about $170 billion a year in refunds, a substantial portion in the first quarter. Delayed refunds would slow first-quarter growth.

国税局每年的退税支出约1,700亿美元，其中很大一部分是在第一季度。推迟退税会导致一季度经济增长放缓。

Some of the most harmful effects of the fiscal cliff come from increases in taxes on capital, because capital investment powers future growth. Raising the long-term capital gains tax rate to a maximum of 24% from 15% means that people will postpone sales of capital assets in the hope that the rate will again decline. Raising taxes on dividends from 15% to a maximum of 43% will discourage firms from issuing dividends.

财政悬崖最为有害的一些影响来自资本税的上调，因为资本投资会为未来的增长提供动力。将长期资本利得税从15%提高至24%的上限意味着人们将会推迟出售资本资产，寄希望于税率会再度下降。将股息税从15%提高到43%的上限会让公司不愿意派发股息。

Physician reimbursements for Medicare are scheduled to decline by 27% on Jan. 1. This happens regularly, and so far Congress has fixed the problem a few weeks later. But doctors have to submit bills a second time, increasing costs and paperwork. Some doctors are going to decline to see Medicare patients. The elderly will find it more difficult to get care.

1月1日，联邦医疗保险(Medicare)的医生退款将下调27%。这种情况经常发生，到目前为止，国会通常都会在几个星期后解决这个问题。但医生必须再次提交账单，这就增加了成本，也需要进行更多的书面工作。一些医生会拒绝诊治享受联邦医保的病人。老年人获得医护服务的难度将会加大。

Physicians' reimbursements affect not only doctors and seniors and Medicare's price tag, but also the cost of the Affordable Care Act, which the Congressional Budget Office estimated would reduce the budget deficit by $143 billion over 10 years. Freeing Medicare physicians from future cuts could cost $250 to $400 billion over 10 years, depending on how much the government allows doctors' payments to rise.

医生退款影响的不仅是医生、老年人和联邦医保的价格，还会影响平价医疗法案(Affordable Care Act)的成本。国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)估计，平价医疗法案在10年里会将预算赤字减少1,430亿美元。如果让联邦医保的医生不受减少退款的影响，10年内成本将增加2,500亿到4,000亿美元，具体取决于政府允许医生薪酬上涨多少。

If taxes didn't matter, why not just double them and get rid of the deficit? The answer is, of course, that taxes do matter. They affect individual and business decisions. States with high taxes, such as New York and California, see that their residents migrate to low-tax states, such as Texas and Florida. Countries with high tax rates find they are unsustainable because capital is global.

如果交多少税无关紧要，那为什么不干脆加倍征税、消除赤字？答案当然是，交多少税事关重大。这会影响个人和企业的决定。纽约和加州等税率高的州发现，这些州的居民会迁往税率低的州，比如得克萨斯和佛罗里达。而且因为资本是在全球流动的，高税率国家会发现这种做法不可持续。

Allowing taxes to increase on Jan. 1 will reduce America's competitiveness, businesses' incentives to invest, and consumers' willingness to spend. It would be senseless for Congress and President Obama to allow it.

在1月1日加税将削弱美国的竞争力，损害企业投资的积极性和消费者的消费意愿。如果国会和奥巴马总统允许加税的话，那他们恐怕是头脑失灵了。