分析：中美角力东南亚

When Air Force One touched down in Cambodia this week, Barack Obama became the first US president to visit the country. But during his trip, part of a US attempt to “rebalance towards Asia, Mr Obama bumped up against a rival power.

上周，随着空军一号(Air Force One)降落柬埔寨，巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)成为首位访问柬埔寨的美国总统。奥巴马此行是美国推行亚洲“再平衡(rebalance)战略企图的一部分。不过由于中国的强力影响，奥巴马此行并不顺利。

From the wall of the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh hung a large green banner with the words “Long live the People’s Republic of China.

金边(Phnom Penh)和平宫(Peace Palace)外面的墙上挂着一幅巨大的绿色标语，上面写着“中华人民共和国万岁。

Inside the building, the US president lectured the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on human rights in a meeting aides called “tense.

和平宫内，奥巴马向缅甸首相洪森(Hun Sen)谈了人权方面的问题，他的助理形容这次会谈的气氛有些“紧张。

The power play between Beijing and Washington – which has dominated the region since the second world war – underlines how China’s rise and US attempts to balance it have drawn new dividing lines in Asia.

自二战以来中美之间的较量一直主导着亚太地区的局势。这种较量突出表明，中国崛起以及美国试图平衡该地区格局的努力，导致亚洲出现了新的两大阵营。

The US has been willing to look beyond human rights abuse in Myanmar and Vietnam to encourage closer ties with Washington as the countries turn away from Beijing.

美国一直愿意在缅甸和越南的人权问题上“睁一只眼，闭一只眼，这只是因为美国想要在这些国家疏远中国之际加强与它们的联系。

At this week’s East Asia Summit – an annual meeting of 18 Asian and Pacific leaders – moves by Beijing and Washington to solidify existing alliances and win new friends continued to drive a wedge into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

上周，在18位亚太地区领导人出席的东亚峰会年会上，中美两国都试图在巩固已有盟友的同时赢得更多的朋友，两国政府为此开展的活动不断在东盟内部造成裂痕。

Cambodia, which has this year’s rotating Asean chairmanship, initially claimed the group had agreed not to discuss the South China Sea territorial disputes that several of its members have with China with “outsiders, such as the US and Japan. But that triggered a backlash from the Philippines and Vietnam.

东盟轮值主席国柬埔寨起初宣称，东盟不会与美日等“外人讨论东盟部分成员国与中国在南中国海的领土争端。这引起了菲律宾和越南的激烈反对。

“Many observers are asking whether we’re moving towards a new cold war in Asia, says Yuan Peng, an expert on US-China relations at the China Institute for Contemporary International Relations, a government think-tank. “I am cautiously optimistic that will not happen, but the challenge is to deal with the competing interests between China and the US in Asia.

中国政府智库中国现代国际关系研究院(China Institute for Contemporary International Relations)研究中美关系的专家袁鹏表示：“许多观察家都在质问，我们在亚洲是否正走向新一轮冷战。对此我持谨慎乐观的态度：冷战不会发生，但如何处理中美利益冲突是亚洲面临的一大挑战。

A series of maritime stand-offs between China and Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines over the past couple of years has made some southeast Asian nations nervous about China’s intentions and eager to improve relations with the US.

过去两年中国与日本、越南及菲律宾在海上频频发生对峙，这令某些东南亚国家对中国的意图感到不安，也让它们迫切希望改善与美国的关系。

“Chinese assertion has backfired, says Andrew Carr, an expert on Asia-Pacific security at the Australian National University in Canberra.

堪培拉澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)的亚太安全问题专家安德鲁·卡尔(Andrew Carr)表示：“中国的强硬立场适得其反。

Both Myanmar and Vietnam, which have traditionally had strong, if often complicated ties to China, have worked hard to rebuild their much more fraught relationships with the US.

缅甸和越南两国在历史上都与中国有着紧密抑或复杂的联系。如今它们努力与美国重建的关系要脆弱得多。

Many analysts argue that fear about their growing economic and political reliance on Beijing was an important factor in pushing Myanmar’s military leaders to embark on the reforms that prompted Mr Obama to visit the country on Monday.

许多分析人士声称，推动缅甸军方领导人着手改革的一个重要因素是他们害怕在经济和政治上越来越依赖中国政府。也正是缅甸的改革举措促成了奥巴马在上周一对该国的访问。

China is trying to counter with the allure of its own fast-growing economy. A major aid donor, Beijing has weighed on Cambodia to do its bidding.

中国正努力利用自身经济快速增长的吸引力进行反击。例如作为柬埔寨的主要援助国，中国政府对柬埔寨施压，迫使其听命于自己。

“The rise of a power will reduce the relative influence of smaller and weaker states, so they will oppose it. That is China’s foreign policy dilemma, says Zhang Yuyan, head of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Therefore China must open its market to give them economic benefits.

中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长张宇燕表示：“一个强国的兴起将会相对削弱其他弱小国家的影响力，因此它们会有所排斥。这正是中国外交政策的困境。因此中国必须开放市场，给予它们经济上的利益。

But many western analysts say Beijing still seems blind to the way its more aggressive tactics continue to push other countries in the region towards the US.

然而许多西方分析人士表示，中国政府似乎没有意识到，他们越来越咄咄逼人的立场正不断将这一地区的其他国家推向美国。

“They don’t see the connection between upping the tempo on the maritime operations and the fact that so many countries in the region are moving towards the very counter-containment strategies Beijing doesn’t want, says Michael Green, former Asia director at the National Security Council during the administration of George W. Bush.

曾在小布什(George W. Bush)政府时期担任美国国家安全委员会亚洲主管的迈克·格林(Michael Green)表示：“中国政府没有意识到，该地区如此多的国家都转而采取中国政府不希望见到的反遏制战略，与中国海事行动日益频繁密不可分。

China’s new leadership could become even more assertive. Joseph Fewsmith, an expert on Chinese politics at Boston University, expects Xi Jinping, the new Communist party chief, to assert China’s interests in very clear terms. “That is likely to cause new friction in the neighbourhood, he says.

中国新任领导人可能会更加强硬。波士顿大学(Boston University)中国政治研究专家约瑟夫·菲尤史密斯(Yoseph Fewsmith)预计，中共新领袖习近平将会以非常明确的表态宣示中国的利益。他表示：“这很可能在中国周边造成新的摩擦。

The Obama administration is likely to try to present a more consistent policy towards China in the second term, but is also set to increase naval operations in the region with allies, including with Japan, to demonstrate firmness.

奥巴马政府在第二个任期内很可能会努力提出更加连贯的对华政策，不过他们也会与包括日本在内的盟友加强该地区的海军活动，以宣示他们的强硬立常

“There is an increasing view that the goal for the next four years is to avoid conflict, not necessarily to improve relations, says Christopher Johnson, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

前中央情报局(CIA)分析师、目前任职美国战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的克里斯托弗·约翰逊(Christopher Johnson)表示：“越来越多的人认为，今后四年的目标不一定是改善关系，而是避免冲突。

However, some in Washington believe that the Obama administration’s moves to strengthen ties with Asean members and become more involved in the South China Sea disputes are partly responsible for China’s more assertive behaviour. “We have to be very careful that we do not pour more oil on this fire, says one former senior Pentagon official. “We need to make it clear to our allies that we are not going to go to war over a few lumps of rock.

然而，美国政府中有人相信，中国采取更为咄咄逼人的行为，在一定程度上是奥巴马政府加强与东盟成员国的联系以及过多卷入南中国海争端造成的。一位前五角大楼(Pentagon)官员表示：“我们一定要非常小心不要火上浇油。我们必须清楚地向我们的盟友表明，我们不会为几块石头开战。