亚洲崛起动摇“美国治下的和平”

China will be the world’s largest economy by 2030 but the US will still remain “first among equals in the international system, according to a new US government intelligence assessment of global trends.

美国政府对全球趋势的一项新的情报评估显示，2030年中国将成为世界最大经济体，但美国将依然是国际体系中“首屈一指的国家。

The report predicts that Europe, Japan and Russia will continue to experience relative decline and that Asia will come to dwarf the rest of the world in terms of its economic and military power.

该报告预测，欧洲、日本、俄罗斯将继续处于相对衰落中，亚洲将在经济和军事实力上超越世界其他地区。

Among other conclusions, the wave of Islamist terrorism is likely to have ended by 2030, the survey predicts, the US will be energy-independent and could be a significant exporter of energy, and advances in manufacturing technologies could reduce the need for outsourcing. The study also warns that future conflicts in Asia and the Middle East could involve a “nuclear element.

调查预计：2030年之前，伊斯兰恐怖主义之潮很可能会终结；美国将实现能源独立，并可能成为一个重要的能源出口国；制造技术的进步将减少外包需求。这项研究还警示，未来亚洲和中东的冲突可能会涉及“核武器因素。

“With the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and ‘Pax Americana’ – the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 – is fast winding down, the report states. In terms of economic size, technology and military spending, Asian power will exceed North America and Europe combined by 2030. However, the US will retain its central role because it will remain the only country able to mobilise coalitions to address global challenges.

该报告指出：“随着其他国家的迅速崛起，美国独霸的‘单级时代’已经结束，1945年以来国际政治中美国占支配地位的‘美国治下的和平’(Pax Americana)也在快速褪色。从经济规模、技术和军事开支来看，到2030年，亚洲将超越北美和欧洲的综合力量。尽管如此，美国将依然起着核心作用，因为美国仍然是能够调动联合力量应对全球挑战的唯一国家。

“No other power has the ability to replicate the US role under any scenario, said Christopher Kojm, chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

美国国家情报委员会(National Intelligence Council)主席克里斯托弗·科基姆(Christopher Kojm)说：“任何情况下，任何国家都无法替代美国的作用。

The report, Global Trends 2030, is published by the NIC and reflects the view of the US government’s 16 intelligence agencies on what the world will look like in two decades’ time. The study is published every four years to assist the long-term strategic planning of each new administration.

美国国家情报委员会出版的这份名为《2030年全球趋势》(Global Trends 2030)的报告，反映了美国政府16个情报机构对未来二十年世界局势的分析。这项研究报告每四年发布一次，帮助每一届新当选政府制定长期战略规划。

The broad conclusion about the demise of Pax Americana strikes a sharp contrast to the rhetoric of the recent presidential election campaign, during which both candidates charted a vision of continued American pre-eminence. However, the NIC is slightly more optimistic about the future US role in the world than in its previous report, compiled four years ago at the peak of the financial crisis, which described an international system that would be “unrecognisable by 2025 and “fraught with risks because of the decline in American influence.

“美国治下的和平将终结这一概括性结论，与不久前总统竞选中的论调形成了强烈的对比，当时两位候选人都描绘了美国将维持其独霸地位的前景。然而，与四年前深处金融危机时发布的上一份报告相比，此次报告中美国国家情报委员会对美国在未来世界中的角色稍微乐观一些。四年前的报告认为，由于美国影响力的衰退，2025年的国际体系将会“面目全非、“充满风险。

While the new study recognises the big shifts in relative power taking place around the world, especially in Asia, it is nuanced in its assessment of the likely increase in Chinese power and influence, citing its ageing population, environmental problems, the growth in nationalism, potential for unrest and regional opposition.

虽然新的研究承认世界相对力量格局正在发生巨大转变，特别是亚洲，但报告在评估中国实力和影响力的可能增加时，观点较为微妙，指出中国存在人口老龄化、环境恶化、民族主义强化、潜在的动荡和地区冲突等问题。

“China is the wild card. Its actions can be its worst enemy, said Mathew Burrows, the study’s main author, referring to China’s more aggressive diplomacy in Asia. “It has ended up creating a lot more support for a continued US role in the region.

报告的主要作者马修·伯罗斯(Mathew Burrows)在提到中国在亚洲更加激进的外交政策时说：“中国存在很大变数，其行动可能给自己带来最大的不利。中国的做法导致更多人支持美国在亚洲地区维持影响。

At the same time, the capacity of the US for forming coalitions of allies and friends and of mobilising networks of individuals and non-state actors will give it an advantage, even as it loses its dominant position in terms of “hard power. However, the report adds: “A divided US would have a more difficult time shaping a new role.

与此同时，建立盟友联盟的能力、动员个人和非国家力量联合起来的能力都是美国的优势，即使美国在“硬实力上失去了其主导地位。然而，该报告还说：“一个分裂的美国会更难以塑造新角色。

The study argues that the US could become a substantial exporter of energy as a result of developments in shale gas. If the US were also able to exploit difficult-to-access oil deposits, this could change the dynamics of the global oil market, leading to a loss of power for Opec and a potential “collapse in oil prices.

该研究认为，由于页岩气的开发，美国可能会成为一个重要的能源出口国。如果美国还能够利用其较难开发的石油储备，则可能会改变世界石油市场的格局，削弱石油输出国组织(OPEC)的力量，甚至可能导致油价“崩溃。

Advances in new technologies, such as robotics and 3D printing, could have a huge impact on manufacturing, the report says, boosting productivity and reducing some of the need for outsourcing of production. However, these trends will continue to depress wages of low and semi-skilled workers in developed economies.

报告还说，诸如机器人技术和3D打印等新技术的进步，可能会给制造业带来巨大影响，从而提高生产力，减少一些生产外包需求。尽管如此，这些趋势将继续降低发达经济体中低技术和半熟练工人的工资。

Mr Burrows said it was likely the cycle of Islamist terrorism would have “exhausted itself by 2030 because of a lack of popular support in Muslim countries.

伯罗斯认为，由于缺乏穆斯林国家的民众支持，到2030年，伊斯兰恐怖主义或将“精疲力竭。

According the intelligence assessment, an important trend over the coming two decades will be the growth of the middle class, which “will become the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world. This will lead to a surge in “individual empowerment, including improved education and healthcare and widespread use of communications technologies.

情报分析预计，未来二十年一个重要的趋势就是中产阶级的壮大，他们“将成为世界大多数国家最重要的社会和经济力量。这将带来“个人赋权的迅猛提升，包括教育和医疗的改善，以及通讯技术的广泛运用。