人民币国际化的深层原因

Four centuries ago, at the height of China's global trade reach, Chinese copper coins were used as an international medium of exchange throughout Asia and beyond. Today, with ongoing economic problems in the West and China's relatively strong performance, many economic observers forecast China's return to monetary prominence in the form of yuan internationalization.

400年前，在中国全球贸易高峰时期，中国的铜币曾在亚洲各地和更远的地方被用作国际交易媒介。如今，由于西方经济问题不断，而中国表现相对强劲，许多经济观察人士预测中国将恢复其在货币上的突出地位，具体地说就是人民币的国际化。

Such talk is far from idle chatter. Amid the re-emergence of China as the world's second largest economy not to mention fulcrum of the world's most dynamic trading region -- Beijing has taken a series of steps to promote yuan internationalization. It has introduced currency swaps with some dozen countries, liberalized entry for foreign investors and use of yuan-denominated funds in Hong Kong, and permitted limited participation of foreign central banks in the domestic interbank market.

这种说法远非信口闲谈。中国重新崛起为世界第二大经济体，更是世界最有活力的贸易区域的支点，在这种形势下，北京方面已经采取一系列措施促进人民币的国际化。中国与数十个国家进行了货币互换，放开了外国投资者的准入条件以及香港的人民币计价基金，并允许外国央行有限地参与国内银行间拆借市常

Surprisingly, though, the avalanche of discussion on the yuan has focused mostly on what China should do. Few ask why China is doing this at all.

然而令人惊讶的是，关于人民币的大量讨论主要集中在中国应当怎么做。很少有人问及中国究竟为什么要这样做。

From Beijing's perspective, the benefits from internationalizing its currency are not obvious. China's pragmatic leadership has historically placed a high value on maintaining economic stability. But currency internationalization and accompanying financial liberalization will inevitably lead to greater volatility as policy makers relax controls over capital movements as well as over interest and exchange rates.

从北京方面的角度来看，人民币国际化的好处并不明显。中国务实的领导层历来十分重视保持经济稳定性。但随着决策者放松对资本流动以及利率和汇率的控制，货币国际化和随之而来的金融自由化无疑将导致更大的震荡。

In turn, policy makers will be forced to sacrifice some control over monetary policy, because pressures to maintain the yuan's value and availability as a global currency may conflict with domestic needs. An international currency historically requires expanding its supply abroad by running large budget or current-account deficits -- both of which are anathema to Beijing. These costs help explain why in the past, Japan and Germany both opposed internationalizing their currencies.

如此一来，决策者还将不得不放弃对货币政策的部分控制，因为保持人民币作为全球货币的币值和实用性的压力可能与国内需求相矛盾。在历史上，国际货币需要通过保持庞大预算赤字或经常项目赤字来扩大其在国外的供应，而这两种做法都是北京方面十分厌恶的。这些代价在一定程度上解释了日本和德国过去为何双双反对将自己的货币国际化。

So why is China considering it? Some suggest that higher seigniorage -- the profit made by selling one's currency -- as well as the benefit of pricing imports in your own currency (and avoiding balance-of-payments crises) is attractive to China. But China has vehemently criticized the U.S. in the past for taking advantage of this 'exorbitant privilege.'

那么，中国为何要考虑人民币国际化？一些人认为，更高的铸币税（发行本国货币获得的利益）和以本国货币为进口商品定价（并避免国际收支危机）的好处对中国具有吸引力。但中国曾经激烈抨击美国利用这种“过分的特权。

Others have suggested that the push to internationalize the yuan is a form of 'reform by Trojan horse.' To wit, China's reformers see currency internationalization not as an end goal, but as a pretext to push for more market reforms. There is logic in this argument, since internationalization demands improving China's rudimentary financial markets and gutting its capital controls.

还有人认为，推动人民币国际化只是一种“特洛伊木马式的改革。也就是说，中国的改革者并非将人民币国际化作为最终目的，而只是推行更多市场改革的托辞。这个说法有一定的道理，因为人民币国际化需要改善中国尚处于初级阶段的金融市场，并从根本上解除其资本管制措施。

Let's understand what these reforms really are. If we delve into them, we find that they are useful for their own sake, and not just as preconditions for yuan internationalization:

让我们深入了解这些改革到底是怎么回事。深入探究之后，我们发现这些改革本身是有益的，而不仅仅是人民币国际化的前提条件：

· Liberalizing exchange rates. Several years of steady appreciation means that the yuan is near its equilibrium level. With the dollar and euro more volatile and China's trade prospects deteriorating, there is no clear pressure for the yuan to move either up or down. Now is a good time for China to expand the yuan trading band, furthering the goal of making the currency more responsive to market signals.

──汇率自由化。经过多年稳步升值，人民币已经接近均衡水平。在美元和欧元波动性增加、中国贸易前景恶化的情况下，人民币没有明显的升值或贬值压力。现在是中国扩大人民币汇率波动区间、进一步提高人民币汇率对市场信号灵敏度的好时机。

· Relaxing capital controls. Capital account liberalization is frequently mentioned as a stumbling block in the reform process, because it means capital can escape China. Already, some have raised alarm bells about 'capital flight' from China over the past year. However, China's comfortable $3.2 trillion reserve cushion, high domestic savings, and relatively high growth prospects decrease this risk.

──放松资本管制。资本账户自由化常被说成是改革进程中的绊脚石，因为它意味着资本可以逃离中国。过去一年已有一些人对中国“资本外逃敲响警钟。但中国3.2万亿美元的外汇储备、国内的高储蓄率和相对亮丽的增长前景降低了这种风险。

In fact, allowing more capital outflows has several benefits for China. These include diversifying investment options for Chinese firms and households away from domestic property markets and away from risky speculation in shadow-banking products. Allowing capital to flow abroad would also introduce more competition into domestic financial markets, which would facilitate its development.

事实上，允许更多资本外流对中国来说有多种好处，比如增加中国企业和家庭的投资选择，使之不再局限于国内房地产市场和影子银行产品的危险炒作。允许资本流到国外，还会给国内金融市场带来更多竞争，从而促进它的发展。

· Liberalizing interest rates. This reform is less achievable in the near term. Without well-developed capital markets, there is no realistic way to establish true market-driven interest rates in China. Controlled rates will likely continue as long as the government continues to use its state banks as quasi-fiscal instruments to channel resources, while neglecting the need to strengthen its fiscal system for this purpose.

──利率自由化。这方面改革在短时间内的实现难度更大。没有发达的资本市场，在中国形成真正由市场驱动的利率就找不到切合实际的途径。只要政府继续把国有银行当作准财政工具来分配资源、忽视加强财政系统对于资源分配的必要性，那么利率管制就有可能继续存在下去。

These initiatives will take time and energy. For the time being, Beijing should focus more on these individual reforms and worry less about internationalizing the yuan as a longer-term objective. There is one area, though, where some experiments in promoting yuan usage could generate near-term benefits and offer lessons for the future. And that's regional trade.

这些行动将耗费时间和精力。暂时来看，北京应该多注重这些一项一项的改革，少关注人民币国际化的长远目标。不过在接下来要说的一个领域里面，人民币国际化的某些实验可以带来一些短期利益，同时为将来提供一些经验。这个领域就是区域贸易。

Nearly half of China's trade is processing-related -- that is, trade comprising parts and components from other East Asian countries that are assembled in China for export to the West. Currencies of several Asian countries already track the yuan more closely than the dollar, which means the yuan could be used as a 'reference currency' for the East Asian production-sharing network.

中国接近一半的贸易都是加工贸易：从东亚其他国家进口零部件，在中国组装，然后出口到西方。亚洲多国货币与人民币的联动已经超过与美元的联动，这意味着东亚的生产协作网络可以将人民币用为“参考货币。

China and, more generally, Asia would benefit from greater use of the yuan to improve trade efficiency, lower transaction costs and reduce exchange-rate risk in intra-Asian trade. But there's a bigger lesson too.

中国以及整个亚洲都将受益于人民币使用的扩大，从而在亚洲区内贸易中提高贸易效率、减少交易成本、降低汇率风险。但除此之外还有一个更重要的经验。

China runs significant trade deficits with most of its Asian partners, which is to say the yuan is in demand across Asia. That means coordinating Asian currencies has near-term potential to increase use of the yuan as a settlement currency and even as a regional reserve currency, in much the same way that America's trade deficits help the dollar's status as the global reserve. In this way, the changing role of the yuan in the Asian trading bloc will provide a useful opportunity to preview the tangible effects of fuller yuan internationalization.

中国对大部分亚洲伙伴都维持着较大的贸易逆差，也就是说，人民币在亚洲各地都有需求。这意味着，协调亚洲货币在短期内有望提高人民币作为结算货币、甚至区域储备货币的用途，正如美国贸易逆差有助于美元维持国际储备货币的地位。如此一来，人民币在亚洲贸易区的角色变化，将为展望人民币更全面国际化的实际影响提供一个有用的机会。

[ By YUKON HUANG / CLARE LYNCH]

[ 作者: YUKON HUANG / CLARE LYNCH]