东南亚高增长吸引投资者目光

Investors hungry for higher returns are homing in on the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia.

渴求更高回报的投资者瞄准了东南亚的高增长经济体。

In particular, they are focusing on the Philippines and Thailand, where stock-market gains have outpaced the rest of Asia this year. The Philippines' benchmark stock index is up 29.8%, and Thailand's is up 30%, compared with a 13.1% increase through Friday in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, an Asia-wide benchmark.

他们尤其关注菲律宾和泰国。今年这两个国家的股市涨幅超过亚洲其他国家。菲律宾基准股指上涨29.8%，泰国上涨30%。相比之下，反映全亚洲股市状况的基准股指摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（除日本）指数(MSCI Asia ex-Japan)截至上周五仅上涨13.1%。

The attraction is Southeast Asia's expanding economy and rising middle class. That is likely to continue to propel stocks in the region higher next year, said David Gaud, senior portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Hong Kong, which manages $1.5 billion in Asia and has most of its Southeast Asian investments in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

吸引他们的地方在于东南亚的经济增长及其中产阶级的兴起。香港资产管理公司Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management基金经理高德(David Gaud)说，这些因素有望推动该地区股市明年继续走高。高德的公司在亚洲管理着15亿美元的资产，大部分东南亚投资都是在印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国。

'The story is still continuing,' Mr. Gaud said, adding that the Philippines and Thailand in particular are likely to benefit from improving economies. Going into 2013, 'there is no reason for these markets to perform [any] less than they did this year,' he says.

高德说，这样的情形仍在延续，菲律宾和泰国尤其有可能受益于经济的改善。他说，2013年这些市场的表现没有理由赶不上今年。

Morgan Stanley forecasts the four biggest economies of the region-Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore-will expand by 4.5% in 2013, outpacing the 3.1% global growth estimate for the same period.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计，2013年东南亚四个最大的经济体（泰国、马来西亚、印尼和新加坡）将增长4.5%，超过同期全球经济增速估计值3.1%。

Singapore shares have performed well, up nearly 16% this year, while Indonesian stocks, up 12.6%, are trading close to all-time highs. Even regional laggard Malaysia, which is up 5% for the year, has managed to pull off two of the world's largest initial public offerings in 2012.

新加坡股市表现不错，今年涨幅接近16%。印尼股市上涨12.6%，逼近历史最高峰。马来西亚今年上涨5%，在地区内落后于人，2012年世界规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)有两笔是在马来西亚进行的。

Propelling the growth across Southeast Asia is the rising middle class, defined as those with disposable income above $3,000 a year. Brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets estimates that some 145 million people will be considered middle class in 2015, up from 95 million in 2010. That is likely to fuel increased spending on everything from food and clothing to travel and gambling. The region also is profiting from high demand for its commodities, especially from China.

促进东南亚经济增长的因素是其中产阶级的兴起。中产阶级的定义是每年可支配收入3,000美元以上的人群。经纪商里昂证券亚太市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)估计，2015年将有大约1.45亿人被视为中产阶级，高于2010年的9,500万。这可能会推动食品、服装、旅游、博彩等各方面支出的增加。东南亚出产的大宗商品需求旺盛（特别是来自中国的需求），也给这个地区带来了好处。

As well, the Philippines and Thailand are showing signs of political stability, something that hasn't always been the case.

另外，菲律宾和泰国显示出政治稳定的迹象。过去这两个国家的政局并非一帆风顺。

In the Philippines, investors say they remain confident in President Benigno Aquino III. Under his rule, the country has this year won credit-rating upgrades from Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service to just one notch below investment grade.

在菲律宾，投资者说他们对总统阿基诺三世(Benigno Aquino III)仍有信心。在他治下，菲律宾的标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)和穆迪(Moody's Investors Service)评级均获上调，只比投资级低一个等级。

The economy also is strong, expanding at a 7.1% pace in the third quarter, up from 6% in the previous three months.

经济同样强劲，第三季度增长7.1%，高于第二季度的6%。

In Bangkok, the survival of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government has helped put a halt to years of political disruption in Thailand.

在曼谷，总理英拉(Yingluck Shinawatra)的政府撑了下来，从一个方面止住了泰国多年来的政治动荡。

Still, a reminder of potential problems flared up last month as thousands of demonstrators rallied in the capital against Ms. Yingluck because of what they say is the continuing influence of her older brother Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted as prime minister in a 2006 coup.

然而上个月发生的事件提醒了人们可能存在的问题，当时数千名示威者在曼谷集会反对英拉，因为他们说英拉的哥哥他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)仍然在持续发挥影响力。2006年身为泰国总理的他信在政变中被推翻。

'We have seen the government last more than a year and that has certainly been good for stability and business confidence,' said Adithep Vanabriksha, chief investment officer for Aberdeen Asset Management in Bangkok, which has assets under management in Thailand worth around $933 million.

安本资产管理集团(Aberdeen Asset Management)驻曼谷的首席投资长Adithep Vanabriksha说，我们看到，这届政府的在任时间已经超过一年，这对社会稳定和商业信心肯定是好事。安本在泰国管理的资产价值约9.33亿美元。

The strong gains in regional shares, however, have left some markets starting to look expensive, say some investors. Thailand is trading at 12.6 times earnings for the next 12 months and Indonesia is at 13.8 times, compared with 10.9 times for the MSCI Asia ex Japan.

但一些投资者说，该地区股票的强劲上涨使一些股市开始显得估值偏高。泰国股市（基于未来12个月预期收益的）市盈率为12.6倍，印尼则为13.8倍；相比之下，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数的预期市盈率为10.9倍。

'Valuations compared to the rest of the region are relatively high, but looking at the visibility that these countries offer over the next three to five years, they still have a case,' Mr. Gaud said.

高德说，与该地区其他国家股市的估值相比，它们的估值相对较高，但考虑到这些国家未来三到五年可预见的前景，这样的估值还算合理。

Recently, foreign investors have cooled on Thailand, selling a net 10.19 billion baht ($332 million) worth of stocks in the first three weeks of November, although they remain net buyers of 36.93 billion baht of stock for this year through Nov. 21.

最近，外国投资者对泰国股市兴趣转冷，11月份的头三周净卖出价值101.9亿泰铢（约合3.32亿美元）的泰国股票。但截至11月21日，外国投资者今年以来仍净买入了价值369.3亿泰铢的股票。

'There is a decent possibility that if we look at how these markets play out, you are likely to see an exodus of people' who will take profits and exit, said Tahnoon Pasha, chief executive for equities and fixed income for Aviva Investors in Singapore, which manages assets worth $6 billion in the Asian-Pacific region.

英杰华投资集团(Aviva Investors)驻新加坡负责股票和固定收益业务的首席执行长帕沙(Tahnoon Pasha)说，有相当大的可能是，如果我们考察这些股市的交易情况，可能会看到大批投资者套现退出。该公司在亚太地区管理着价值60亿美元的资产。

Mr. Pasha says while the solid growth in the economies of Southeast Asia makes those markets look attractive, he is skeptical about whether foreign investors will stay.

帕沙说，虽然东南亚经济体的稳定增长使这些股市看起来很有吸引力，但他对外国投资者是否会留下来表示怀疑。

The region's next challenge may be maintaining investor interest if sentiment toward China improves. In recent months, Mr. Pasha has been reducing exposure to the region and investing more in China as Asia's biggest economy shows signs of improvement.

该地区面临的下一个挑战可能是：如果市场对中国的情绪得以改善，那么这一地区该如何保持投资者的兴趣。最近几个月，帕沙一直在缩小对该地区的风险敞口，并加大对中国的投资。作为亚洲最大的经济体，中国经济已经显示出改善迹象。

Overall, though, Southeast Asia remains attractive to investors, especially as governments spend more on infrastructure in an effort to reverse years of chronic underinvestment. In Thailand, the government has implemented large-scale stimulus spending on reconstruction after last year's deadly floods, while the Philippines has been teaming up with investors to build expressways and other projects.

不过总体而言，东南亚对投资者来说仍具吸引力，在多国政府加大支出投入基础设施建设以扭转多年来这方面一直投资不足的情况下就更是如此。去年致命洪灾发生过后，泰国政府实施了大规模的经济刺激支出计划用于灾后重建。而菲律宾则与投资者联手一同建设高速公路等项目。

'Policy and politics are key across the region for the successful execution of investment-led growth,' said Hozefa Topiwalla, Morgan Stanley's head of research and equity strategy for 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The bank says it is 'positive' on Thailand, 'neutral' on Indonesia and 'negative on Singapore.

摩根士丹利负责东盟10国研究和股票策略的主管Hozefa Topiwalla说，在这一地区，想要成功实现投资拉动的经济增长，政策和政治非常关键。摩根士丹利称其给予泰国“正面评级，给予印尼“中性评级，给予新加坡“负面评级。