日本也应聘外国人担任央行行长

There is a logical corollary to the UK government’s bold decision to appoint Mark Carney, a Canadian, as governor of the Bank of England. That is to make Paul Tucker, the UK central bank’s deputy governor and an unsuccessful candidate for the top job, the next governor of the Bank of Japan.

英国政府任命加拿大人马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)担任英国央行(Bank of England)行长的大胆决定，有其逻辑上的必然性。这是为了让未能成功接任行长职位的英国央行副行长保罗·塔克(Paul Tucker)成为日本央行(Bank of Japan)下一任行长。

This modest proposal is made mostly in jest. But after 15 years in which the BoJ has failed to defeat deflation, the institution could do with some fresh thinking. Sadly, it is inconceivable that Japan would appoint a foreigner to lead one of its most important institutions. Even in Tokyo, however, it is not entirely unrealistic to imagine an “outsider – someone not steeped in BoJ orthodoxy – being drafted in.

这种温和的建议很大程度上只是开玩笑。但通缩问题15年仍未能解决，日本央行应该需要一些新的想法。遗憾的是，日本任命一位外国人领导其最为重要的机构之一是不可想象的。然而，即便在东京，想象一位“局外人（没有接受日本央行正统思想浸淫的人）入选也并非完全不切实际。

That, in effect, is what the man most likely to become Japan’s next leader is proposing. Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister, is poised to return to the job to the job if his party wins next month’s election. Mr Abe has set the cat among the pigeons – or, in monetary policy terms, the doves among the hawks – by proposing some radically new thinking.

实际上，这正是很有可能成为日本下任领导人的安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的提议。如果安倍晋三的政党赢得12月的大选，这位前首相就将再次出任日本首相。安倍晋三提出了一些全新的想法，引起了轩然大波，或者用货币政策的说法，是“把鸽派安插到鹰派中。

He wants the government to set an inflation target – he initially suggested 3 per cent – and for the central bank governor to be held accountable if that goal is missed.

安倍晋三希望政府制定通胀目标（他最初提议将目标定为3%），如果未能完成目标，就应追究央行行长的责任。

To reach the target, he says the BoJ should pursue “unlimited monetary easing. Mr Abe has rowed back somewhat in recent days, especially from his ideas that the bank should buy construction bonds. He maintains, however, his threat to amend the Bank of Japan Law if the bank does not co-operate. He has been lambasted for his supposed assault on central bank independence. Yet there is much merit in his position.

他表示，要实现这一目标，日本央行应该实施“无限的宽松货币政策。安倍晋三如今有些改口，尤其是他关于日本央行应购买建设公债的想法。然而，他仍然威胁称，如果日本央行不合作的话，就会修改《日本银行法》(Bank of Japan Law)。安倍晋三一直因所谓的侵犯央行独立性而遭受猛烈抨击。然而，他的立场有一定道理。

At times, the BoJ has given the impression that it does not regard deflation as such a bad thing. It has objected to setting an inflation target – it has reluctantly adopted a more timid “goal – on the grounds that it might fail to meet it since normal policy tools are ineffective in a deflationary environment. It has also been reluctant to be seen to be financing government spending directly because this would shield the government from taking tough decisions, such as raising taxes, cutting spending and forcing a restructuring of industry.

有时日本央行会给人一种印象，即它并不认为通缩是一件坏事。日本央行之所以反对制定通胀目标（它已经不情愿地接受一个更为胆小的“目标），是基于如下理由：由于正常货币工具在通缩环境下无效，它可能无法实现目标。它也不愿意人们认为它在直接向政府支出融资，因为这将使得政府不用做出艰难决定，比如增税、削减支出和强迫行业重组。

Not all of what the bank says is wrong. But the upshot is that Japan is still stuck in deflation, albeit mild. A chance to resolve this stand-off comes when Masaaki Shirakawa’s five-year term as governor ends next April. Mr Abe, assuming he wins, will then be in a position to pick the next governor and two deputies.

日本央行的说法并非全都是错误的，但最终结果是日本仍在通缩，尽管是温和的。在日本央行行长白川方明(Masaaki Shirakawa)的5年任期将于明年4月结束之际，解决这种僵局的机会来了。如果安倍晋三赢得大选，他将可以任命下任央行行长和两位副行长。

Yoshihiko Noda, the current prime minister, calls Mr Abe’s proposals “absurd. Yet the idea of the government setting a mandatory inflation target is no radical departure from central bank orthodoxy. It is exactly what happens in the UK. Sir Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, is held accountable. Over the years, he has had to write 14 letters to British chancellors past and present explaining his failure to hit a 2 per cent inflation target.

现任日本首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)将安倍晋三的建议斥为“荒谬。然而政府制定通胀目标的想法并非完全与正统的央行理论背道而驰。英国就制定了通胀目标。英国央行行长默文·金爵士(Sir Mervyn King)对通胀目标负责。在过去几年里，他不得不向前任及现任英国财相写了14封信，解释他为何未能实现2%的通胀目标。

Richard Jerram, chief economist of the Bank of Singapore, who spent years in Tokyo frustrated at Japan’s overly timid anti-deflation policy, is heartened. “I find myself almost pinching myself, he says. “Finally they want to get someone in who believes in monetary policy as a driver of inflation.

新加坡银行(Bank of Singapore)首席经济学家理查德·杰拉姆(Richard Jerram)曾在东京呆过几年，对日本过分胆怯的反通缩政策感到沮丧。但他现在感到振奋。杰拉姆表示：“我兴奋得几乎掐了一下自己。他们终于想让某位相信货币政策可推动通胀的人上任了。

Inflation is not a panacea. But it is a useful tonic. Imagine what Japan’s economy would look like if, instead of enervating deflation, it had had inflation of, say, 2 per cent for the past 15 years. Mr Jerram calculates that the economy would be about 40 per cent bigger in nominal terms than it is today. That would make its ratio of debt to gross domestic product look far more manageable. Tax revenue would also be higher, and the yen most likely weaker, boosting exports. Mr Abe’s proposal – christened the “Abe trade – has sent the yen down and share prices up.

通胀并非万灵药，但它是一剂有效的补药。想象一下，如果日本在过去15年里经历2%的通胀，而不是夺去经济活力的通缩，日本的经济将会是什么情形。杰拉姆估算，那样的话，日本名义GDP将会比目前高出约40%。这将让日本的债务与GDP比率看起来更为可控。税收收入也将提高，日元很有可能走弱，从而推动出口。安倍晋三的提议（被称为“安倍交易）已经促使日元走低和股市上涨。

Several candidates have been mentioned for governor. Among the more interesting are Heizo Takenaka, economics tsar under former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Kazumasa Iwata, a former deputy governor who advocates stronger anti-deflationary measures and the purchase of foreign bonds to drive down the yen.

日本央行行长已经有数位候选人。其中更令人感兴趣的是前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)政府时期的“经济沙皇竹中平藏(Heizo Takenaka)，以及前央行副行长岩田一政(Kazumasa Iwata) ，后者主张加大反通缩举措，并购买外国债券以压低日元汇率。

Another possibility is Eijiro Katsu who, as top finance ministry bureaucrat, helped push through a law to double sales tax to 10 per cent by 2015. Implementation of the rise is contingent on certain growth targets being met, for which, in turn, a dovish monetary policy will be helpful.

日本央行行长的另一个可能人选是胜荣次郎(Eijiro Katsu)。作为一名财务省高级官员，胜荣次郎推动通过了到2015年将销售税税率倍增至10%的法律。这一增税政策的实施，依赖于一些增长目标的实现，而相应温和的货币政策将有助于实现增长。

There is a neat circularity here. The BoJ was given independence from the finance ministry in the late 1990s. Ironically, that was just the time when the economy could have done with closer co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy to tackle deflation. Instead it got a hamstrung finance ministry and an independent central bank with a less than relevant anti-inflationary remit. Mr Abe, even if he waters his ideas down, could begin to square the circle. And if not, there is always Mr Tucker.

还有一点很微妙。日本央行在上世纪90年代末从财务省那里获得了独立性。具有讽刺意义的是，正是在那个时候，日本经济本可以受益于财政和货币政策更紧密的合作，以解决通缩问题。结果当时的日本财务省无所作为，而独立出来的央行却以毫不切题的反通胀为职责。安倍晋三即便在自己的观点上有所松动，也可能仍将迈出“不可能任务的第一步。即便不成功，这里始终还有塔克呢。