美国市政债面临重大评级下调风险

Investors who have piled into US municipal debt face a series of rating downgrades on their bonds next year, a leading credit rating agency is warning.

一家主要信用评级机构警告称，蜂拥涌入美国市政债券市场的投资者明年或将面临所持债券的信用评级频繁遭到下调的风险。

Fitch says that local government is still far from a recovery from the effects of the financial crisis and recession on the US economy. The agency expects to downgrade dozens or hundreds of issuers in 2013.

惠誉(Fitch)表示，美国地方政府距离从金融危机以及美国整体经济衰退的影响中恢复过来仍很遥远。该机构预计，2013年数十甚至上百个市政债券发行方将有信用评级下调风险。

The forecast, in the annual outlook report published

惠誉在今日发布的年度预测报告中所做的上述预测或令很多投资者感到失望，这些投资者大举买入市政债券的举动已使此类债券的收益率水平降至45年以来的最低点。

today, could disappoint investors whose buying spree has pushed yields on muni bonds

惠誉指出，地方政府的房产税收入仍将处于较低水平，原因是作为房产税计税基础的住房估值水平仍处于下行调整中。公共部门养老金缴款则有必要增加，以填补2008年金融市场崩溃时形成的缺口。

to their lowest levels in 45 years.

惠誉美国公共财政部门的董事总经理埃米·拉斯基(Amy Laskey)表示，2013年这一领域的信用评级下调将以高于以往平均水平的频率接连出现。她指出：“认真应对经济衰退的地方政府的财政状况好于那些在头几年里坐吃储备或者进一步扩大赤字规模的地方政府。

Income from property taxes will stay depressed, as it is based on home prices still resetting at lower assessment valuations, Fitch said. Contributions to public sector pension funds are having to be stepped up to fill holes that opened when markets crashed in 2008.

以美国各市政当局发行的20年期一般义务债券(general obligation bond)为考察对象的债券买方指数收益率上周降至3.29%，为自1967年以来的最低水平。一个月之前，该指数收益率为3.68%。

Amy Laskey, managing director in Fitch’s US public finance group, said downgrades would persist at an above-average rate in 2013: “Governments that took [recession] seriously are in better shape than those that spent the first years dipping into reserves or patching over the deficit.

在过去一年多的时间里，投资者资金持续不断地涌入市政债券市常自美国大选结束以来，投资者对美国市政债券的买入规模进一步扩大。

A Bond Buyer index measuring 20-year general obligation bonds from municipalities US-wide recorded a 3.29 per cent yield last week – the lowest since 1967. A month ago, the yield was 3.68 per cent.

市场认为，华盛顿的预算案谈判很可能导致最高收入人群的所得税负担加重，以及对股票分红与其他类型投资收益的税率上升。这种变化将使收益免税的市政债券相对来说显得更有吸引力。

Investor money has been

来自资金监测机构EPFR的数据显示，今年已有508亿美元资金流入了以市政债券为主要投资对象的共同基金以及交易所交易基金(ETF)，而2011年全年则净流出了181亿美元。今年以来，该领域没有一周出现过资金净流出。

flowing consistently into munis for more than a year. The buying spree intensified after the election.

摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)税务敏感固定收益部门的主管里克·陶尔米纳(Rick Taormina)表示：“目前美国地方政府的债券发行速度放缓，此时资金涌入该市场将进一步推高市政债券价格。

Washington’s budget negotiations are considered likely to lead to higher income taxes for top earners and increased taxes on dividends and other investments, an outcome that will make tax-exempt munis relatively more attractive to own.

他指出：“在投资者眼中，市政债券的技术层面因素与税收优惠似乎已经超越并抵消了信用状况的影响。

By EPFR data, $50.8bn has flowed into mutual funds and exchange traded funds that specialise in municipal debt this year, compared with an outflow of $18.1bn in 2011. There has been no week this year in which the sector showed a net outflow.