投行的乱世机遇

May you live in interesting times runs the Chinese curse and for the world’s banks, as Citigroup’s announcement of 11,000 job cuts and a $1bn restructuring charge shows, the times do not get much more interesting than this.

“宁为太平犬，不做乱世人(May you live in interesting times)是一句中国谚语。对全球银行业来说，再也没有比现在更乱、更有趣的时候了。花旗集团(Citigroup)宣布裁员1.1万人并将耗资10亿美元重组就是一个例证。

Thanks to self-inflicted wounds and consequential external pressures, the leveraged business model that defined the universal bank is broken. Regulators require extra capital, less proprietary trading and more transparency of their charges. Liquidity is “in, leverage is “out.

由于自己造成的创伤和随之而来的外部压力，全能银行标志性的杠杆化经营模式已然失败。监管机构要求银行增加资本金，减少自营交易，并提高收费透明度。流动性“登场，杠杆化“落幕。

Citigroup is not alone laying off staff and redesigning its operating model. RBS and UBS have pulled back from equities and fixed income respectively. Credit Suisse has ring fenced its investment bank. Barclays’ strategy review is set to conclude in the new year and investors are questioning the size, shape and position of its investment bank. Across Wall Street, as senior executives decide how to allocate reduced bonus pools, the year-end compensation review is bringing an added focus to strategic discussions.

花旗集团并不是唯一实施裁员和调整经营模式的银行。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)和瑞银(UBS)分别大幅削减了股票和固定收益业务。瑞信(Credit Suisse)已把投行业务“圈护起来。巴克莱(Barclays)预计将在明年完成战略评估，投资者也对其投行业务的规模、状况和地位提出了质疑。华尔街上下，随着高管们商讨如何分配缩小的奖金池，年底的薪资评估将使有关公司战略的讨论受到更多关注。

The banking industry is facing the most testing circumstances since the Wall Street crash of 1929. How it responds will determine whether it can shed its pariah status. The good news for the banks is that they have the chance to seize the moment and reinvent themselves as financially viable and socially responsible institutions. All is not lost.

目前，银行业正面临着自1929年华尔街崩盘以来最具挑战性的环境。银行业如何应对考验，将决定该行业能否摆脱遭人唾弃的地位。所幸，各银行可以抓住眼前时机进行彻底改造，把自己打造成为有经济效益、有社会责任感的机构。银行业并非满盘皆输。

From currently depressed levels, banking is a growth market. Investors are in desperate need of advice and corporate balance sheets are in urgent need of repair. There are massive imbalances in the world economy. The emerging economies are maturing as capital markets and require sophisticated financial institutions to operate them.

鉴于目前的低迷状态，银行业正处于一个成长型的市常投资者急需投资建议，企业亟待修补资产负债表。世界经济处于极度失衡状态。新兴经济体的资本市场日趋成熟，需要经验丰富的金融机构参与经营。

Such turmoil creates opportunities for smart players, particularly in the discredited investment-banking sector. Here, the withdrawal of competitors creates openings for survivors. The labour market is differentiating between those with genuine talent and those riding on their coat tails. Shareholders are becoming more realistic about risks and rewards. Technology continues to redefine the business of trading. Regulators are rewriting the rules.

如此混乱的局面为精明玩家提供了机遇，尤其是在声誉扫地的投资银行业。在投行业，竞争对手的退出为幸存者创造了更多空间。劳动力市场正在区分哪些是货真价实的人才，哪些是华而不实的家伙。股东开始用更现实的眼光看待风险和回报。技术在继续重新定义交易业务。监管机构正在重写规则。

It is hard to imagine a more chaotic set of circumstances and, as every trader knows, chaos equates with opportunity. Far from sounding the death knell of investment banking, these should be ideal conditions to redesign and restructure an industry in dire need of regaining its moral compass and its role in the modern economy.

很难想象还会有比目前更加混乱的局面。每个交易员都知道，乱就等于机遇。投行业的丧钟远未敲响，目前应是重塑、重组投行业的理想时机。这个行业急需找回“道德指南针，重树自身在现代经济中的角色。

For top executives, the key is to ask the right question. The wrong question would be “what can we do to get back to the glory days? Bankers should forget it. The world does not want that any more. Leave that game to the hedge funds and the private equity houses.

对于银行最高管理层而言，关键是要提出正确的问题。不要问“我们怎么才能重现往日辉煌？银行家们应当忘掉过去。那已经不是世界所需要的。现在要看对冲基金和私募股权投资公司的了。

The right question to ask is what kind of financial products and services do clients need. This question enables a bottom up analysis of what type of organisation is required to serve those needs and what profit opportunities are available.

应该问的是，客户需要何种金融产品与服务？提出这个问题之后，我们就能进行反向分析，探讨哪种类型的机构才能满足这些需要，以及其中有什么获利机会。

The sequence of product first, shareholder value second opens up the possibility of creating a sustainable, ethical and economically useful business. A sequence of shareholder value first, product second risks replicating the mistakes of the past in reproducing self-serving organisations that would do anything to make a fast buck.

遵循“产品第一、股东价值第二，才有可能创建出可持续经营、有道德、有经济效益的企业。换做“股东价值第一、产品第二，则会重蹈覆辙，再度催生什么业务能赚快钱就涉足什么业务的自利型机构。

The outcome will inevitably be investment banks that are different in size and shape but it is premature to read the industry’s last rites. Investment banks are the mothers of reinvention and they have retained one critical advantage: their defining feature, the integrated model.

投行在规模和形态上必将发生分化，这将是不可避免的结果。但现在要为该行业举行临终祈祷为时尚早。投行特别擅长于自我改造，它们也保留了一项至关重要的优势，即令它们与众不同的混合经营模式。

Modern investment banking developed after the deregulation of Wall Street in 1975 and the City of London in 1986. Liberalisation enabled financial institutions to combine the previously discrete activities of advising corporations and trading for investors. These new, integrated investment banks were able to use this privileged position to connect issuers and investors, expand secondary trading of equities and bonds, and then develop derivatives as new markets emerged.

现代投行业是在华尔街和伦敦金融城(City of London)分别于1975年和1986年放松管制之后发展起来的。自由化使金融机构能够把两种以前不相干的业务融合为一：为企业提供咨询服务和帮助投资者进行交易。这些新型、采取混业经营模式的投行因而有能力利用这一特别地位，为证券发行主体和投资者牵线搭桥，扩展股票和债券二级市场交易，并随着新市场的出现而开发衍生品。

The integrated model has been bruised and battered by scandals, by fast technology that has rendered old trading methods obsolete and by the current banking crisis.

由于丑闻频发、导致旧有交易手段不断过时的新技术以及当前的银行危机，混业经营模式已经体无完肤了。

But investment banks retain the permission of regulators and clients simultaneously to serve issuers and investors. This gives them protection from disintermediation and an information edge over other market participants. The challenge for today’s investment banking leaders is to use this opportunity and re-emerge as the cutting edge of the financial services industry.

但是，监管机构和客户仍然都允许投行同时为发行方和投资者提供服务。这一局面使投行不必实行“非中介化，并且相对其他市场参与者享有一种信息优势。对于投行领袖而言，挑战在于如何利用这一机遇，重新成为金融服务行业中的尖兵。

The writer’s latest book is ‘Reckless: the rise and fall of the City’

本文作者的新书为《Reckless: the rise and fall of the City》。