2013年全球IPO市场将会回暖

Bankers and analysts reading the runes for company flotation prospects this year see signs of improvement.

试图解密公司今年上市前景的银行家和分析师们，看到了向好的迹象。

Things could hardly get worse: despite an uptick in the fourth quarter, 2012 was the worst year in terms of global initial public offerings since the depths of the crisis. In Europe volumes were down 60 per cent year on year and in Asia by 40 per cent, according to Dealogic.

市况再差不到哪儿去了：尽管第四季度略微回暖，2012年仍是自金融危机最严重时期以来全球首次公开发行(IPO)市场表现最糟糕的一年。Dealogic数据显示，欧洲IPO金额同比减少60%，亚洲减少40%。

But bankers and analysts spy prospects of a gradual improvement in the new issue market through 2013, if not a full recovery.

但银行家和分析师们发现，即便未必完全恢复，2013年IPO市场也可能会逐渐回暖。

That is based on a hope that the gentle rally in global equity markets sparked by central bank action late in the summer will continue into the new year. Volatility is also at a multiyear low.

他们做出这一判断，是寄望去年夏末全球央行举措推动的全球股市小幅攀升，在今年将会延续下去。同时，股市波动性也降至多年来最低。

Those healthy conditions have already prompted a trickle of successful deals. MegaFon, the Russian telecoms group, launched a $1.7bn flotation in November that has traded up, and the People’s Insurance Company of China completed a $3.1bn deal in December – one of the biggest of the year.

这种良好市况已带来了少量成功的IPO案例。去年11月，俄罗斯电信集团MegaFon上市融资17亿美元，之后股价有所上涨。去年12月，中国人保(PICC)上市融资31亿美元，成为全年融资额最高的IPO之一。

There are more to come. The number of groups that have announced flotations for this year is up 63 per cent from a year ago at 1,182, according to Bloomberg data, although this is from a low base.

未来会有更多的公司上市。彭博(Bloomberg)数据显示，已宣布计划今年上市的公司数量比去年增加63%，达到1182家，不过去年的基数较低。

“With markets performing strongly and volatility sharply lower, the environment for initial public offerings has improved dramatically in a relatively short period of time, says Sam Dean, global co-head of equity capital markets at Barclays.

巴克莱(Barclays)全球股权资本市场联席主管山姆·迪安(Sam Dean)表示：“随着市场表现良好和波动性显著下降，IPO环境在较短时间内便已得到大幅改善。

“If this continues, the challenge – ironically – might instead be the size of the pipeline, he adds.

他补充道：“如果此趋势延续下去，具有讽刺意味的是，IPO市场的挑战可能反而体现在管道的宽窄上。

The US, which was the only region where IPO volumes improved last year, is likely to see the strongest performance once again in 2013, according to analysts, assuming that the second round of fiscal cliff negotiations or another shock does not throw the markets off kilter.

分析师们表示，作为去年唯一IPO金额上升的市场，美国在2013年可能再度成为IPO金额最高的国家，前提是，第二轮财政悬崖谈判或者又一波冲击不会破坏市场的良好态势。

Bankers say the small-cap technology sector is one area likely to see particular strength in the US. The volume of US technology IPOs rose from $5.5bn in 2011 to $20bn last year, while the proportion of venture capital backed deals rose to its highest since the dotcom boom in 2000, according to Dealogic.

银行家们表示，小市值科技类公司尤其可能在美国有不俗的IPO表现。Dealogic数据显示，去年美国科技类公司IPO金额由2011年的55亿美元上升到200亿美元，而风险资本投资的公司的IPO比例也上升至自2000年互联网热潮以来的最高值。

“The first quarter of this year will probably see a continuation of this theme, says Phil Drury, co-head of Americas equity capital markets at Citigroup.

花旗集团(Citigroup)美国股权资本市场联席主管菲尔·德鲁里(Phil Drury)表示：“今年第一季度，小型科技类公司IPO很可能仍将是市场的主旋律。

There is speculation that larger technology deals will come as well. Twitter, Dropbox and Square are all thought to be considering deals.

有人推测，较大科技公司的上市活动也可能有所增加。据信Twitter、Dropbox和Square可能都在考虑IPO。

The story is different in Europe, however, where investors are still more risk-averse than in the US. Bankers and analysts predict activity will be more sluggish, driven in part by forced IPOs as struggling companies look to shed assets and governments privatise state-owned groups.

然而，欧洲的市况有所不同，欧洲投资者的避险情绪仍然高于美国投资者。银行家和分析师们预测，欧洲IPO市场将更趋萧条，而且一部分IPO将是陷入困境、寻求剥离资产的公司或对国有集团实施私有化的政府不得不发起的。

“The crisis IPO could be a feature of the year, says Maria Pinelli, global vice-chair for initial public offerings at Ernst and Young.

安永(Ernst and Young)IPO业务全球副董事长玛丽亚·皮内利(Maria Pinelli)表示：“‘危机IPO’可能成为今年的一个特色。

This theme of forced sales in 2013 could be good news for those looking to invest in European IPOs, as non-discretionary flotations are often priced more conservatively to ensure success.

2013年，被迫出售资产的主题可能对希望投资欧洲IPO的人构成利好，因为这种非自愿上市活动为了确保发行成功，在定价方面通常更加保守。

Shares in Direct Line, for example, which Royal Bank of Scotland was required to sell by the EU, are up 21 per cent since its IPO in October.

例如，苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)应欧盟(EU)要求出售的Direct Line，其股价自去年10月IPO以来上涨了21%。

Shares in Santander Mexico, floated in order to provide its Spanish parent with capital, are up by a third.

桑坦德银行墨西哥分行(Santander Mexico)上市后，股价上涨了三分之一。该行发行股票的目的是为其西班牙母公司筹集资金。

All that is in sharp contrast to many of the more discretionary issuances.

这种情形跟许多更自主的IPO构成了鲜明对比。

The final piece of the IPO puzzle this year will be in Asia, where activity fell sharply as Chinese issuance dropped 60 per cent to $21.5bn, according to data from Dealogic.

今年IPO前景的最后一个难猜的部分将是亚洲。Dealogic数据显示，去年亚洲IPO活动大幅减弱，这是因为中国的IPO金额下降了60%，降至215亿美元。

The China Securities Regulatory Commission has slowed approvals for IPOs since October and it is not clear when that will change.

中国证监会(CSRC)自去年10月以来放缓了IPO审批，目前尚不清楚其何时将会有所改变。

“The big question for 2013 is China, where equity issuance had a very quiet year, says Mark Hantho, global head of equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank. “Our view is that China is going through a pause period for IPOs.

“2013年最大的疑问在于去年IPO市场波澜不兴的中国，德银(Deutsche Bank)全球股权资本市场主管马克·汉索(Mark Hantho)表示，“我们认为，中国目前正处于一段IPO静默期。

Despite that, analysts expect an improvement in overall activity this year, likely to be driven by the US. But they also warn not to get carried away about how good it is going to be, even if markets do remain calm.

尽管如此，分析师们仍预计今年全球IPO活动将有起色，美国可能是推动因素之一。但他们也警告，不要过于乐观于今年市场会有多好，即便目前市场仍保持平静。

Global IPO volumes would still need to nearly triple this year to reach 2007 boom-time levels.

今年，只有全球IPO金额达到去年的近三倍，才能赶上2007年市场繁荣期的水平。