为企业再创信贷繁荣

Probably my biggest career mistake has been to not borrow enough. If you are in business and ambitious, then you need to learn how to obtain debt: ideally lots of it. Loans are required to develop companies and buy assets without dilution – unless you are lucky enough to own a self-financing business.

或许我在职业生涯中所犯的最大的错误是没有大举借钱。如果你在经营企业并志向远大，那么你就需要学会如何举债：最好是大量举债。我们需要贷款来发展企业和购买资产，而不用担心股权被稀释——除非你足够幸运，拥有一家资金自给自足的企业。

The period leading up to 2008 saw the greatest credit boom in history, when banks seemingly lent money against almost anything. And those who made the most money were those who employed the most debt. I largely missed the party, but at least I didn’t suffer too much of a hangover.

2008年以前是历史上信贷最为繁荣的时期，当时几乎所有东西都可以用作银行贷款的抵押品。那些赚钱最多的人也是负债最多的。我基本上错过了这场盛宴，但至少我也没有遭受后遗症的太大影响。

The leading borrowers were, as ever, in the property businesses. Real estate is usually the core of any bank lending book, and property developers and investors understand that half the secret of success is leverage. And in turn, the banks that had to be rescued were the ones with greatest exposure to property.

和以往一样，主要的借款人从事房地产业务。房地产通常是银行放贷账簿的核心，而房地产开发商和投资者明白，成功秘诀的一半在于杠杆。相应地，不得不接受纾困的银行，是那些对房地产敞口最大的银行。

Banks don’t just lend to property companies – they use property as security even when the facility is for something else entirely. It might be funding working capital, the marketing costs of a launch or even a personal holiday. The banking profession falls back on bricks and mortar as security for at least two-thirds of its loans if residential mortgages are included.

银行不只向房地产企业放贷，它们甚至在提供完全用于其他用途的融资时，也把房地产当作抵押品。房地产可能用于营运资本融资，产品发布营销成本甚至是个人度假费用。如果把住房抵押贷款计算在内，银行业至少三分之二的贷款抵押品是房地产。

There is historical logic in lending against a tangible asset such as property, but in many countries that unchallenged belief is taking a battering. The US, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece have all suffered unprecedented property slumps in recent years. Property in Japan is still substantially below the price it commanded 30 years ago – even in nominal terms. And the rot is spreading. For forced sellers in most of France, Italy and Britain, excluding cities such as London, home values have also tumbled. Millions of home mortgages around the world are underwater, while tens – perhaps hundreds – of billions of commercial property loans are in trouble.

把房地产等有形资产作为贷款抵押品有其历史逻辑，但在许多国家，这种无可争辩的观念正在遭受冲击。美国、西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊的房地产市场最近几年都出现了史无前例的暴跌。日本房地产价格仍远远低于30年前的水平，即使按名义价格计算也是如此。房地产的低迷在蔓延。对法国、意大利和英国大部分地区（不包括伦敦等城市）被迫抛售住房的人而言，住房价值也出现了暴跌。全球范围的数百万住房抵押贷款“沉入水下（即房屋价值低于抵押贷款余额），同时价值数百亿（或许数千亿）美元的商业地产贷款也出现了麻烦。

Not only can property prices fall significantly, but buildings can also go from being income producers to cost burdens. A friend recently bought a substantial office block in southern England in reasonable condition at perhaps a quarter of its build cost – with the land for free. It is partly occupied – but unless he manages to find more tenants in the coming years, he will lose money. The present rents are the same as they were 15 years ago – and it is a struggle to find new occupiers.

不仅房地产价格大幅下跌，房地产本身也可能从收入创造者转变为成本负担。一位朋友最近在英格兰南部以大约四分之一造价的价格，购买了一栋状况基本完好的办公大楼，而且土地免费。目前大楼有一部分租户，但除非这位朋友能够在未来几年找到更多的租户，否则他将会赔钱。当前的租金仍是15年前的水平，但仍然很难找到新的租户。

Incredibly low interest rates have propped up real estate values everywhere. But one day rates will rise – and that will put more downward pressure on property prices.

极低的利率支撑了各地的房地产价值。但总有一天利率将会上涨，届时房地产价格将会承受更多的下行压力。

Meanwhile property valuation remains a dark art, and with few transactions, owners and lenders can get away without marking prices down to honest levels. No doubt many banks, funds and companies would be bust if they did. This is the “extend and pretend game, where everyone in the daisy chain carries on the charade – because to admit default would declare the participants insolvent and throw the staff out of work.

与此同时，房地产估价依然是一种黑箱操作，在交易很少的情况下，业主和放贷者可以得过且过，而无需下调价格至诚实水平。无疑，如果他们诚实计价，许多银行、基金和公司将会破产。这是“延期和粉饰的游戏，参与游戏的各方都不承认违约，因为承认违约就得宣布参与者资不抵债，并导致员工失业。

More than half of all institutional property value in Britain is represented by shops. Landlords and banks appear in denial about the earthquake ripping through the retail sector. The digital revolution means many more chains will go bust in the next few years. Dozens – perhaps hundreds – of malls and retail parks will become redundant. What of retail yields then?

在英国，商店的地产价值占到所有机构房地产价值的一半以上。目前业主和银行似乎拒绝承认整个零售行业正在经历动荡。数字革命意味着，更多的连锁店将在未来几年倒闭。数十家（或许是数百家）商场和零售中心将会变得多余。届时零售地产的收益从何而来？

Banks were lazy and property lending seemed easy during the boom. This bias crowded out other borrowers. Now bankers must switch their emphasis, and reduce their focus on real estate. They should become more sophisticated about lending against cash flow, intellectual property, receivables, equipment and the like. Lending to productive industry helps create jobs and exports, and might well provide better collateral than supposedly reliable assets such as houses and shopping centres.

银行比较懒惰，在经济繁荣期间，发放房地产贷款似乎很轻松。这种偏见让其他借款者无法获得贷款。现在银行家必须转变重点，降低对房地产的关注。他们应该更精通以现金流、知识产权、应收账款和设备等为抵押品的放贷业务。向生产性行业放贷有助于创造就业和出口，还很可能提供比住房和购物中心等貌似可靠资产更好的抵押品。

Regulators too must realise the world has changed, and adjust their rules to reflect new realities about asset classes. The global property bubble has burst, and many of the tired assumptions about what is a modern repository of value have been proved wrong. Banks should reinvent themselves, and find ways to finance innovation and the future, instead of relying on broken lending models.

监管机构也必须认识到世界已经改变，并调整他们的规则，以反映有关资产类别的新现实。全球房地产泡沫已经破裂，许多关于现代价值存储库的陈腐假设已经被证明是错误的。银行应该对自己进行再创，设法为创新和未来提供融资，而不是依赖已经失灵的放贷模式。

The writer runs Risk Capital Partners, a private equity firm, and is chairman of StartUp Britain

本文作者经营着私人股本公司Risk Capital Partners，并担任StartUp Britain主席