亚洲企业的信贷狂欢如何收场

Last spring, Sime Darby, a Malaysian conglomerate, announced that it planned to sell noncore assets.

去年春天，马来西亚综合企业森达美(Sime Darby)宣布，计划出售非核心资产。

It was an attempt to generate cash because much of its Rm16bn debt was coming due quite soon.

此举是为了回笼资金，因为该公司总值160亿林吉特的债务即将到期。

Like many other companies in Southeast Asia, Sime Darby had ramped up borrowing in the expectation of better economic times that failed to materialise.

像东南亚其他很多公司一样，森达美此前抱着对经济景气的期待而增加借贷，但结果经济并不景气。

Its debt swelled from Rm10bn in 2017 to Rm18bn in 2017, while net income dropped by 30 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.

据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据显示，该公司的债务水平从2017年的100亿林吉特增加至2017年的180亿林吉特，而在此期间其净利润减少了30%。

Blackstone’s Asian real estate group, which had been hunting for assets in Singapore and other attractive locations, quickly pounced.

一直在新加坡和其他具有吸引力的地方物色资产的黑石(Blackstone)旗下的亚洲房地产集团很快下手，

It bought three Sime Darby properties in the city state: two malls and a car showroom.

收购了森达美在这座城市国家的三项资产：两座购物中心和一个汽车展示厅。

Since then, the pressure on many cash-strapped Asian companies has only worsened.

自那以来，亚洲很多资金紧张的公司承受的压力有增无减。

In recent years, groups in a number of emerging markets took on large amounts of debt, often borrowing in US dollars to take advantage of low rates generated by the Federal Reserve’s easing policies.

近年来，很多新兴市场的企业大规模举债，往往利用美联储(Fed)宽松政策带来的低利率而借入美元债务。

According to a JPMorgan report, the ratio of private non-financial debt to GDP in emerging markets, excluding China, now exceeds the peak level of developed market debt around the time of the global financial crisis: about 175 per cent.

根据摩根大通(JPMorgan)的一份报告，新兴市场（除中国以外）私营部门非金融债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比，如今超过了全球金融危机前后发达市场债务水平的峰值——175%左右。

But that credit binge now looks problematic in the wake of Donald Trump’s election, which has boosted both the dollar and expectations that the Fed will soon raise US interest rates

但是，在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统（推动了美元上涨以及外界对美联储将很快加息的预期）之后，这场信贷狂欢如今看来问题重重。

Deleveraging is just beginning in the EM and the road looks to be long, the JPMorgan economists noted in their report late last month.

新兴市场才刚刚开始去杠杆，前方道路看起来还很长，摩根大通的经济学家们上月下旬在他们的报告中指出。

Clouds over Asian emerging markets have been gathering for a while.

笼罩在亚洲新兴市场头上的阴云已经聚集了一段时间。

Much of the regional economy depends on trade, which has been virtually flat in both value and volume terms for several years.

亚洲经济在很大程度上依赖于贸易，而近年来贸易无论在总值还是总量上都几乎持平。

Weak demand and falling prices for commodities have played a large part, but Asia’s role in the global electronics manufacturing supply chain is also critical

大宗商品需求疲软和价格下跌起到了很大作用，但是亚洲在全球电子制造供应链中的角色也起到了关键作用。

China, which drives that supply chain, is buying more inside its borders and providing less of a boost to its neighbours.

驱动着这条供应链的中国，开始更多地在境内购买，对邻国制造业的拉动作用减弱。

Slowing Apple and Samsung sales are also hitting smartphone suppliers.

苹果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)销量放缓也打击了智能手机供应商。

If the new US administration puts pressure on Apple to bring jobs home, then the clouds will darken further.

如果美国新一届行政当局施压苹果公司把就业岗位迁回本土，那么笼罩着亚洲新兴市场的乌云将更加阴郁。

A repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis in which many companies went bust is not likely.

1997年亚洲金融危机曾造成众多企业破产，那样的灾难不太可能重演。

Currencies are less overvalued, current account deficits are down and the foreign reserves of governments in the region are far more substantial.

如今各国货币汇率高估的情况没那么严重，经常账户赤字水平没那么高，而政府外汇储备雄厚得多。

Still, the dramatic reversal in the dollar and the upward trajectory in rates will create opportunities for buyers of distressed assets — from India through Southeast Asia and even China.

话虽如此，美元走势急剧逆转、利率步入上升轨道，将为在印度、东南亚、甚至中国寻觅困境资产的买家创造机会。

Today, a range of investment firms including Blackstone, Farallon, KKR, SSG and Clearwater Capital are circling in anticipation of a wave of asset sales as the burden of US dollar debt rises for many companies, particularly in Southeast Asia.

如今，随着很多企业（特别是东南亚地区）的美元债务负担日益加重，黑石、Farallon、KKR、SSG和Clearwater Capital等投资公司正在伺机而动，期待着一波资产出售潮。

Many distressed debt players already have lists of potential sources for deals, with Indonesian companies at the top of the list.

很多不良债务的玩家已经准备好了潜在交易对象名单，其中印尼企业最多。

For example, several are circling Rajawali, a conglomerate with interests in property, agriculture, mining, infrastructure, transportation and media.

例如，一些买家准了飞鹰(Rajawali)，这是一家拥有房地产、农业、采矿、基础设施、交通和媒体资产的综合企业。

It has recently put $500m investment into Jakarta’s Capital Place real estate development, which is anchored by a new Four Seasons hotel, and is set to pump close to $700m, into another luxury development called Rajawali Place (which will feature a six-star St Regis hotel).

该集团最近向雅加达的房地产开发项目Capital Place（其重头是一家全新的四季酒店(Four Seasons Hotel)）投入5亿美元，并且将向另一个名为Rajawali Place的奢侈地产开发项目（包括一家六星级瑞吉酒店(St Regis Hotel)）注入近7亿美元投资。

Some distressed debt investors believe the company could be a potential target in the new financial climate.

一些不良债务投资者认为，该公司可能在新的金融环境中成为一个潜在目标。

But Shirley Tan, the property unit’s chief executive, says its performance in 2016 is OK and points out the low borrowing ratio for its hotel developments.

但是飞鹰地产首席执行官Shirley Tan表示，该公司2016年的业绩还好，并指出其酒店开发项目的借款比率较低。

In India, GVK, an infrastructure company, is in talks with Goldman Sachs about a $250m loan that would be collateralised by its stake in the Mumbai airport, people familiar with the matter say.

知情人士称，印度基础设施公司GVK正在就一笔2.5亿美元的贷款与高盛(Goldman Sachs)谈判，该公司在孟买机场所持的股份将作为这笔贷款的抵押。

GVK’s local bankers have talked to the Hyderabad-based company about selling part of its stake in the Bangalore airport to Fairfax of Canada.

与GVK打交道的当地银行家接洽了这家总部位于海得拉巴(Hyderabad)的公司，商讨将其在班加罗尔机场所持的部分股份出售给加拿大Fairfax。

One top executive at GVK says its bankers have been very supportive.

GVK一名高管称，银行家们非常支持。

Expect many more companies to consider such sales with pressure from less supportive bankers shortly.

预计很快会有更多企业在不那么支持的银行家的施压下考虑此类出售。