China's economy expanded at a steady 6.7 percent in the third quarter and looks set to hit Beijing's full-year target, fueled by stronger government spending, record bank lending and a red-hot property market that are adding to its growing pile of debt.
Wednesday's data painted a picture of an economy that is slowly stabilizing but increasingly dependent on government spending and a housing boom for growth, as private investment and exports remain stubbornly weak.
Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy.
"So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
"The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high growth targets."
The economy grew at the same clip in the third quarter year-on-year as in the first and second quarters, as analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Government infrastructure projects and the property boom have spurred prices and demand for raw materials and goods from cement and steel to furniture.
On a quarterly basis, it grew 1.8 percent, again in line with expectations but easing slightly from the previous period.
PROPERTY MARKET BIGGEST RISK FOR NOW
Economists believe the greatest near-term risk for China is a possible correction in the high-flying property market, which accounts for about 15 percent of GDP.
Real estate investment accelerated in September and home sales soared, highlighting persistent investor demand even as more cities tighten measures to curb prices.
Property investment growth ticked up to 7.8 percent in September on-year, and property sales surged 34 percent, though new construction starts fell 19.4 percent, suggesting sentiment among builders may be shifting as the government looks to cool the buying frenzy.
A wave of restrictions imposed on buyers in major cities since early October has resulted in a sharp drop in sales and authorities are stepping up pressure on speculators.
Shanghai said on Tuesday it had punished some property agencies for falsifying contracts and had launched probes into some developers suspected of raising prices without authorization.
Most economists do not expect house prices to collapse, arguing the market is supported by steady migration to bigger cities, but memories are still fresh of authorities' heavy-handed attempt to cool surging stock markets last year, which triggered a crash and an unprecedented government rescue.
The property craze has also heightened concerns about China's growing debt and the risks to its financial system, as much of the record loan growth has been driven by mortgages.
China's debt has soared to 250 percent of GDP and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in September that a banking crisis was looming in the next three years.
"We think that the cooling measures in property market will weigh on China's economy over the coming quarters," Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao in Hong Kong said in a note.
But statistics bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun said "the impact (of property adjustment measures) on the economy will not be very big" in the short-term.
MOST SEPTEMBER DATA SHOWS MODEST IMPROVEMENT
Consumption contributed 71 percent of GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, compared with 66.4 percent for 2015. The increase is partly due to contracting net exports but also indicates some success in Beijing's attempts to rebalance the economy from an over reliance on investment-led growth.
September indicators were mostly in line with expectations and improved slightly from August, but industrial output growth unexpectedly cooled to 6.1 percent from a year earlier, versus expectations for 6.4 percent.
Fixed-asset investment rose 8.2 percent in January-September from a year earlier, as expected, as the government cranked up infrastructure spending to support the economy. Fiscal spending in the nine-month period climbed 12.5 percent.
Private investment growth picked up to 4.5 percent in September after falling to record lows in recent months, but still significantly lags investment by state-owned firms. For the first nine months, private investment rose just 2.5 percent.
Retail sales rose 10.7 percent in September on-year, beating expectations of 10.6 percent as home buyers bought appliances and decorated, while subsidies fueled strong sales of new cars.
China's economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest pace in a quarter of a century.
While analysts expect China to meet its growth target this year, as usual, many remain skeptical of the official numbers, especially as growth has remain unchanged for three straight quarters even as the country attempts a major economic transition.
"The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China's economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up last quarter, though the improvement clearly won't last," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note.
Capital Economics' calculations suggest the economy is growing at around 5 percent.
译文：
中国第三季度经济增长在6.7%稳定,似乎将北京的全年目标,受较强的政府开支,记录银行贷款和灼热的房地产市场,增加其日益增长的债务。
周三公布的数据描绘了一幅经济正缓慢稳定但越来越依赖政府支出和房地产繁荣增长,私人投资和出口仍疲弱。
一些经济学家认为中国政府不得不“双下降”今年刺激来满足其官方增长6.5 - 7%,并说政府对会议的硬目标可能损害改革计划和世界第二大经济体的长期健康。
“今年到目前为止他们已经明显选择尽他们所能来满足增长目标,现在有一点向上惊喜从房地产市场实际上会帮助他们今年GDP增长,“Louis Kuijs说,亚洲经济在香港牛津经济研究院。
“真正的问题是,是领导愿意搬到低增长目标为了把增长放在一个更可持续的基础之上,还是会觉得有必要继续坚持那些很高的增长目标。”
同样的经济增长速度在第三季度同比在第一和第二季度,路透调查的分析师预期。政府基础设施项目和房地产繁荣刺激了价格和对原材料和商品的需求从水泥和钢铁的家具。
再次按季度增长了1.8%,符合预期,但从前期略有缓解。
房地产市场目前最大的风险
经济学家认为,中国是一个最大的短期风险可能修正飞涨的房地产市场,约占GDP的15%。
9月房地产投资加速和房屋销售飙升,强调持续的投资者需求即使更多的城市收紧措施抑制价格上涨。
房地产投资增长在9月同比上升7.8%,房地产销售上涨34%,尽管下降了19.4%,新开工项目建议人气建筑商可以转变为政府看起来酷购买狂潮。
一波又一波的限制在主要城市买家自10月初以来导致销售急剧下降,当局正加大对投机者的压力。
上海周二表示,该公司已经惩罚一些房产中介伪造合同和发起了探讨一些开发商涉嫌擅自提高价格。
大多数经济学家不希望房价崩溃,认为市场支持稳定迁移到更大的城市,但记忆还新鲜当局的严厉试图冷却去年股市飙升,引发事故和前所未有的政府救援。
房地产热潮也加剧担忧中国日益增长的债务和金融系统风险,尽可能多的记录贷款增长推动了抵押贷款。
中国的债务飙升至GDP的250%,国际清算银行(BIS)9月警告说,银行业危机即将在未来三年。
“我们认为,房地产市场的降温措施将拖累中国经济在未来几个季度,"德国商业银行的经济学家在香港周浩在一份报告中称。
但统计局发言人盛来运表示,“(房地产调整措施)对经济的影响不会很大”在短期内。
大多数数据显示9月温和改善
消费贡献了71%的GDP增长在今年前三个季度,2015年这一比例为66.4%。净出口的增加在一定程度上是由于收缩也表明一些成功在北京试图平衡经济过分依赖投资导向型增长。
9月指标大多是符合预期,从8月略有好转,但工业产出同比增长意外冷却到6.1%,与预期为6.4%。
固定资产投资较上年同期9月份上涨8.2%,正如预期的那样,政府提高了基础设施支出来支持经济。财政支出在9个月期间上涨了12.5%。
私人投资增长了9月份的4.5%降至历史低点后在最近几个月,但仍然大大落后于国有企业的投资。前九个月,私人投资仅上涨2.5%。
零售销售在9月同比上涨了10.7%,超过预期的10.6%,购房者买电器和装饰,而补贴推动强劲销售的新车。
中国的经济在2015年增长6.9%,在四分之一个世纪以来的最低值。
尽管分析师预计中国今年达到增长目标,像往常一样,许多的官方数字仍持怀疑态度,尤其当增长已连续三个季度保持不变,即使这个国家主要经济过渡。
“官方GDP数据依旧稳定告诉我们很多关于中国经济的表现。我们自己的衡量经济活动的增长表明,拿起最后一个季度,尽管显然不会持续改善,”资本经济(Capital Economics)的朱利安•Evans-Pritchard中国经济学家在新加坡在一份报告中写道。
Capital Economics的计算表明,经济增长在5%左右。