GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文七一

　　19. Recent social changes in the country of Spiessa lead the author to predict a

　　continued surge in growth of that countrys restaurant industry. Rising personal incomes,

　　additional leisure time, an increase in single-person households, and greater interest in

　　gourmet food are cited as the main reasons for this optimistic outlook. All of these

　　factors are indeed relevant to growth in the restaurant industry; so the prediction appears

　　reasonable on its face. However, three questionable assumptions operative in this

　　argument bear close examination.

　　The first dubious assumption is that the supply of restaurants in Spiessa will

　　continue to grow at the same rate as in the recent past. However, even in the most

　　favorable conditions and the best of economic times there are just so many restaurants

　　that a given population can accommodate and sustain. It is possible that the demand for

　　restaurants has already been met by the unprecedented growth of the past decade, in

　　which case the recent social changes will have little impact on the growth of the

　　restaurant industry.

　　A second assumption is that the economic and social circumstances cited by the

　　author will actually result in more people eating out at restaurants. This assumption is

　　unwarranted, however. For example, increased leisure time may just as likely result in

　　more people spending more time cooking gourmet meals in their own homes. Also,

　　single people may actually be more likely than married people to eat at home than to go

　　out for meals. Finally, people may choose to spend their additional income in other

　　ways―on expensive cars, travel, or larger homes.

　　A third poor assumption is that, even assuming people in Spiessa will choose to

　　spend more time and money eating out, no extrinsic factors will stifle this demand. This

　　assumption is unwarranted. Any number of extrinsic factors―such as a downturn in the

　　general economy or significant layoffs at Spiessas largest businesses―may stall the

　　current restaurant surge. Moreover, the argument fails to specify the social changes

　　that have led to the current economic boom. If it turns out these changes are politically

　　driven, then the surge may very well reverse if political power changes hands.

　　In conclusion, this argument unfairly assumes a predictable future course for both

　　supply and demand. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least show

　　that demand for new restaurants has not yet been exhausted, that Spiessa can

　　accommodate new restaurants well into the future, and that the people of Spiessa

　　actually want to eat out more.