124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlos Clothing to the staff.
Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depots owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlos Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.
Carlos服饰老板给员工的备忘录：
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显着增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlos服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.
1， 人流量是否代表利润?
2， CARLO的停滞是否有其他原因
3， 错误类比。――服装与音像。
1， The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc Depot.
2， The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3， The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
4， Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlos clothing.
125. The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.
Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报最大化。
1， The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.
2， Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
3， The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the authors imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1， The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
2， The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
3， The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
A1. The following editorial appeared in the South Fork Gazette.
Last year, the city contracted with Flower Power to plant a variety of flowers in big decorative pots on Main Street and to water them each week. By midsummer many of the plants were wilted. This year the city should either contract for two waterings a week or save money by planting artificial flowers in the pots. According to Flower Power, the initial cost for artificial flowers would be twice as much as for real plants, but after two years, we would save money. Public reaction certainly supports this position: in a recent survey, over 1,200 Gazette readers said that the city wastes money and should find ways to reduce spending.
1， 花枯萎了不只和浇水次数有关
2， 不能只从成本考虑要用假花还是真花还要从收益角度
3， 最后的那个调查不可靠
4， 那个公司提供的成本数据是否可靠
sample1
In this argument, the author indicates that it is cost-effective to replace real flowers by artificial flowers. To support his conclusion, the author points out that those real flowers need more water to survive in mid-summer. In addition, he reasons that even though the use of artificial flowers spends twice the amount of money of the maintenance of real flowers initially, people will be beneficial to this alternative in a long run. Moreover, a recent survey quoted is cited citizens dissatisfaction with the fiscal performance and their hope of reduction of public spending. As I analyze this argument in close concert, the authors view is not very convincing for three major reasons.
In the first place, the evidence the author provides is insufficient to support that the use of artificial flowers can reduce public spending, even in a long run. The author may emphasize the merit of artificial flowers that they never need water to survive or grow. But he fails to notice that over time, the outside artificial flowers inevitably become messy and dirty, weakening their decorative function. Then people also have to wash them with considerable amount of water. Furthermore, the sun fades the color of artificial flowers. Hence, the city need spend a supplementary cost to replace old ones.
In the second place, the author distorts the readers ideas about ways to reduce public spending. Readers never specify that an end to the use of real flowers should be one way to reduce public expense. Readers may call for changes in other public work and services other than the replacement of real flowers. As far as I know, lots of people have inherent preferences for real flowers, due to their peculiar features. When real flowers are blossoming, fragrant smell spreads over a large area. Compared with artificial flowers, real flowers can change their appearance at all seasons.
In the third place, the survey quoted by the author is worthless because some of its details have not been provided. Without additional information, such as the total number of people in the city or the framework of who were conducted, the result of the survey may lack representative. We can picture that the city has a population of more than 5 million, but this survey conducted only 1200 people, especially readers who are easily affected by the gazettes editorial.
Since the author commits logical mistakes mentioned above and fails to consider the whole situation comprehensively, his ideas should not be adopted. The conclusion would be strengthened if he can obviate these three major logical msitakes.
Sample2
In this argument, the author makes a conclusion that the city should plant artificial flowers instead of real flowers in big decorative pot on Main Street. The authors line of reasoning is established on his assumption that by planting plastic flowers, the city can save money. To support such an assumption, the author cites three supportive examples: last year, the city contracted with Flower Power to plant a variety of flowers and to water them each, yet by midsummer many of the plants were wilted; although the initial cost for plastic flowers is twice as much as real plants, the city can save money after two years; finally, public reaction will definitely support the proposal. At the first glance, the argument seems to be somewhat convincing. However, a close and deep reflection reveals how groundless and problematic it is. In the following paragraphs, I should elaborate the main flaws in the argument.
In the first place, the author fails to explore the real underlying reasons for the death of the plants and flowers. Instead, he makes a gratuitous assumption that more frequent watering is needed. However, the author fails to substantiate his point. In no case can the mere fact that the flowers are wilted help to build up such an assumption flawlessly. It is possible that many of the plants were wilted because they required drier soils for survival and thriving. Unless the author can build up a causal correlation between the survival of the plants and more needed watering, the assumption remains questionable and open to discussion.
In the second place, the author mentions that planting plastic flowers means the saving of money in the long run. However, the credibility of such an assertion has yet to be established, especially since the author ignores to point out that most of the plastic plants will last for more than two years. One obvious rebuttal to the authors reasoning is that investigations show that a majority of plastic plants, if planted on the Main Street, can only last for at most two years without the protection from direct sunshine. In such a case, the authors assertion that planting plastic plants will save money is of dubious validity.
In the third place, the author believes that the public will certainly support his position, as over 1200 Gazette readers said that the city wastes money and should find ways to reduce spending. Yet, such a survey result is neither representative nor reliable. Actually, it is rather misleading, since the author lacks direct evidence to buoy his assumption that the viewpoint of the 1200 Gazette can largely reflects the opinion of the majority of the residents. Besides, even if most of the residents do favor for a reduced spending, they may not necessarily consider the authors suggestion a proper way of reduction in expenditure. Therefore, the author makes a hasty conclusion that the public will support his position for sure.
To sum up, because it is plagued with the above-stated fallacies, the argument is flawed. To buttress his argument, the author should provide more direct evidence indicating that planting plastic plants will be more money-saving than planting real flowers. Moreover, the feasibility of planting and maintaining the plastic plants should also be taken into consideration. Additionally, a more related and reliable survey showing the real support for the authors recommendation will also cement the authors position.
A3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the development director of the Largo Piano Company.
The Largo Piano Company has long been known for producing carefully handcrafted, expensive pianos used by leading concert pianists. During the past few years, however, our revenues have declined; meanwhile, the Allegro Musical Instrument Company introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and then saw its revenues increase. In order to increase Largos sales and in fact outsell Allegro, we should introduce a line of digital pianos in a variety of price ranges. Our digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers, since they would be associated with the prestigious Largo name.
1， The increase of revenue may just coincided with the sale of inexpensive digital pianos, while the two actually had no causal realationship.
2， The strategy used in other companys may not be suit for the Largo Piano.
3， The expected instant acceptance with customers may not be the case. As the fact the author cited, the revenue of the Largo Piano have declined during the past five years, it may no longer own the prestige.
1， 销售降低的原因?――排除他因。
2， 错误类比
3， 是否会得到持续接受?销售连续下降也许已经说明show声誉的下降。
1， A公司销售额上升的真实原因是否由于数字钢琴生产线的引入
2， 适用于A公司的不一定适用于L公司
3， 价格的变化将带来产品市场定位的变化，可能会损坏品牌形象