《新概念英语》（美音）III-51

Lesson 51 Predicting the future

Listen to the tape then answer the question below.

What was the'future' electronic development that Leon Bagril wasn't able to foresee?

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s,for example,that by the end of the 20th century,computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s,computers were common enough ,but only in big business,government departments,and large organizations.These were the so-called mainframe machines.Mainframe computers were very large indeed,often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms,employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software.Though these large machines still exist,many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers,commonly known as PCs.

In 1975,a primitive machine called the Altair,was launched in the USA.It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.This was followed,at the end of the 1970s,by a machine called an Apple.In the early 1980s,the computer giant,IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer.This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS,produced by a then small company named Microsoft.The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.From those humble beginnings,we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

Considering how recent these developments are,it is even more remarkale that as long ago as the 1960s,an Englishman,Leon Bagrit,was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days.Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand,when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes,when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses,when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull,repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace.Of course,Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Intermet,the worldwide system tha enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks.Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject,so we can read in on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if ve want to.Computers have become smaller and smaller,more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper.This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particulary remarkable。If he ,or someone like him,were alive today,he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.

New words and expressions 生词和短语

notoriously adv.(尤指因坏事)众所周知地

mainframe n . 主机，中央处理机

full-time adj . 专职的

technician n.技师

software n.软件

IBM (International Business Machines)(美国)国际商用机器公司

DOS 磁盘操作系统

Microsoft (美国)微软公司

user-friendly adj.容易操作的，好用的

multimedia adj.多媒体的

alternative adj.选择的

diagnose v.诊断

relieve v.减轻

accountant n.会计

repetitive adj.重复的

clerical adj.办公室工作的

Internet n.国际交互网

network n.网络

Notes on the text 课文注释

1。in the mid 1970s,在20世纪70年代中叶。

2。so-called ,号称，所谓的。

3。Mainframe computers were very large indeed...software.在这句话中，现在分词短语occupying 和employing 以及过去分词短语run 均作主语mainframe computers的修饰成分。

4。take over,接收，接管。

5。home computer,家用电脑。

6。a then small company,那时候规模尚小的一个公司。

7。dismiss the idea that ...,不考虑......这个想法。

8。the Internet, the worldwide system that......,后面的这个短语用来进一步说明名词the Internet,是它的同位语，这种用法在科技类的文章中很常见。