BEC中级阅读：油价推助粮食期货价格飙升

　　Agricultural commodities rose to multi-year highs yesterday following crude oils surge to $100 a barrel as traders anticipated higher demand from the expanding global biofuels industry.

　　In Chicago, wheat jumped 16 cents to $9.31 a bushel, 59 cents below its all-time high, while soyabeans rose to $12.38, a fresh 34-year high, and corn traded within touching distance of its recent 11-year high.

　　In Paris, rapeseed prices rose to record levels, up 1.5 per cent to 444.75 a tonne, while Malaysian palm oil futures also hit a record $961 a tonne yesterday.

　　As grains and oil seeds are key feedstuffs for biofuels, the oil price rise has exerted a huge push on agricultural commodities, which enjoyed their best returns for almost 30 years in 2007. The SP GSCI agricultural commodities index returned 31 per cent last year, its best performance since 1981.

　　Support is also coming from population growth and demand for animal feed.

　　This combination of food, feed and fuel demand for crops has created an upward shift in the trend demand growth for agriculture products, said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

　　He said global biofuel demand could increase from 10bn gallons a year in 2005 to 25bn gallons annually by 2010, an annualised growth rate of 20 per cent.

　　As a result of supply disappointments and rising demand, stocks have fallen to historic lows in many agricultural markets, leaving prices very susceptible to upward price shocks.

　　Many analysts believe the rally for agricultural commodities is only just beginning.

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　　在原油价格飙升至每桶100美元后，农业大宗产品价格昨日升至多年高点，因交易员预计来自日益扩大的全球生物燃料行业的需求将会增加。

　　在芝加哥，小麦期货价格上涨16美分至每蒲式耳9.31美元，距离其历史高点59美分，而大豆期货价格升至12.38美元，创下34年新高，玉米期货价格距近期创下的11年高位仅咫尺之遥

　　在巴黎，油菜籽价格升至历史高点，上涨1.5%至每吨444.75欧元，而马来西亚棕榈油期货昨日上探每吨961美元的历史高点。

　　由于粮食和油菜籽是生物燃料的关键原料，油价上涨给农业大宗商品价格带来了巨大的推动力。2007年，农业大宗商品市场的回报水平为近30年来最高。标准普尔GSCI农业大宗商品指数去年的涨幅为31%，为1981年以来的最佳水平。

　　人口增长以及对动物饲料的需求也为农产品价格提供了支撑。

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品研究主管杰弗里柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：在食品、饲料和燃料方面对农作物的需求混合在一起，造成了对农产品需求增长趋势的上行变化。

　　他表示，到2010年，全球生物燃料需求可能从2005年的每年100亿加仑增至每年250亿加仑，折合为年率每年增长20%。

　　由于供应方面不尽人意及需求不断上升，许多农产品市场的库存水平降至历史低点，这使得价格很容易受到上行冲击的影响。

　　许多分析师认为，此轮农业大宗商品的上涨才刚刚开始。