雅虎科技2016十大预测

What’s going to happen to the tech world in 2016? While of course no one really knows for sure, it’s possible to make a few semieducated guesses. Here are 10 predictions for the biggest tech trends for the coming year — from the blindingly obvious to the wildly speculative.

2016年科技界会有什么样的新发现？没有人可以给出肯定的答复，但这并不妨碍我们作出一些简单猜测。以下是2016年十大科技动向，其中有的是板上钉钉，有的只是大胆推测。

1. Apple will unveil a new Watch and a new iPhone

苹果公司将发布新一代Apple Watch和iPhone

This is the easiest prediction in the world, which is why we started with it (guaranteeing that at least one of these will be right).

这是铁定的事实，也是我们之所以把它放在开头的原因（至少能保证这十大预测有一个是真的）。

Apple is expected to release Apple Watch 2.0 sometime this spring, we hope with an improved interface and a lot more apps. And next fall will see the release of the iPhone 7, which (if rumors are to be believed) will include a fingerprint sensor on the screen, wireless charging, multiple cameras, and a USB-C port instead of power or headphone jacks.

苹果有望在明年春发布Apple Watch 2.0，届时其界面或许能有所改进，应用数量也能有所增加。iPhone 7将在明天秋发布，据传其在屏幕上增加了指纹传感器，还具备无线充电功能，配有多摄像头，并用USB-C接口取代了原有的电源和耳机接口。

2. Apple’s dominance of tech culture will decline

苹果的统治力将有所下降

Since the Second Coming of Jobs in 1997, interest in all things Apple has been climbing at a steady rate, going into hyperdrive with the release of the iPhone (2007) and then the iPad (2010). Lately, though, the products coming out of Cupertino have been less than magical and life-changing.

1997年乔布斯重回苹果公司后，苹果渐渐开始吸引大众的目光，后分别于2007年和2010年推出iPhone和iPad，引起了巨大轰动。而如今虽然苹果产品层出不穷，其创意和影响力却不比当年。

And for all of Tim Cook’s many fine qualities, he can’t generate a reality distortion field the way his predecessor could. Until Cook manages to pull another rabbit out of his iHat — an Apple Car? a fully integrated smart home? — the Apple mystique has clearly peaked. Nowhere to go but down.

尽管库克也推出了许多优秀产品，但他却不具备前任乔布斯那样的“现实扭曲力场，除非他也能变戏法般地弄出个Apple Car或是一体化自能家居什么的来。苹果的创意已经达到上限，现在只能走下坡路了。

3. Virtual reality will finally be real — and most people will go ‘meh’

虚拟现实或将成真，而消费者只能望洋兴叹

After nearly four years of teasing us, the Oculus Rift VR headset will finally reach consumers this year, probably some time in the early spring. HTC’s Vive and Sony’s Playstation VR (formerly Morpheus) will likely appear a few months after that. And no matter how awesome they are — and odds are they will be pretty awesome — very few people will buy them.

放了四年鸽子，Oculus Rift虚拟现实眼镜终于要问世了！发售时间为今年或是明年春初。HTC的Vive和索尼的Playstation VR（原名Morpheus）也将在之后的几个月问世。这都是些使人眼前为之一亮的产品，但不管这些设备多酷多棒，只有很少一部分人会选择购买。

Why? They’ll likely be expensive, require vast amounts of computing power, and be limited mostly to games and porn (ewww). The fact is, after four years of hype, VR headsets can’t possibly live up to expectations. And then there’s the whole after-15-minutes-you-feel-like-puking factor (10 minutes if you’re watching porn). VR will find a niche audience, at best, for a long time to come.

究其原因，这些设备主要用于游戏和色情音像（呃），拥有强大的计算能力，其价格可能会高得离谱。而另一方面，这些虚拟现实眼镜被热炒了四年，最终可能难以达到大众的期望值。这种眼镜戴上15分钟就让人忍不住想吐（如果看的是色情片只要10分钟），可想而知，在未来的很长一段时间内，这顶多只能是一种小众产品。

4. AR will beat up VR and steal its lunch money

增强现实将与虚拟现实争夺市场

While the world oohs, ahhs, and hurls over VR (but doesn’t buy it), Augmented Reality (AR) will infiltrate all kinds of industries, from design and engineering to architecture, education, and medicine. Why? Being less immersive — you can actually see the world around you, as well as virtual objects — makes AR much more practical.

当世人还在惊叹于虚拟现实产品（但又不买）的时候，增强现实技术已开始渗透到各个领域，从建筑设计、建造，到教育行业，再到医疗行业。这是因为增强现实技术的仿真度要相对低些，人们可以获得真实的感官体验，还包括虚拟物品。这大大增强了技术的实用性。

Microsoft just released a new version of its HoloLens and will begin shipping $3,000 HoloLens development kits this spring. Google Glass will also emerge from the rock it’s been hiding under since its ill-fated debut, most likely aimed at industrial use.

微软刚刚推出一款全新的全息眼镜，并将于明天春推出价值三千美元的开发套件。而谷歌眼镜首次问世反响不佳，在雪藏了一段时间后也将重出江湖，很可能是面向工业用途。

5. Comcast will try to acquire Netflix — or possibly vice versa

康卡斯特或将收购网飞公司，亦或是被网飞公司收购

Whether or not you’re a cord-cutter, streaming media is the future of entertainment — and nobody streams bigger than Netflix, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of all Internet traffic last year. Since big cable can’t beat the streamers at this game, the only thing left is for it to join them by acquisition; Comcast ($192 billion valuation) and Netflix ($42 billion) are the most logical candidates for an arranged marriage. While it stands to reason that the larger company will swallow the smaller one, it’s not inconceivable that the reverse will happen — not unlike AOL’s acquisition of Time Warner 15 years ago, but perhaps with better results.

不管你是否承认，流媒体都将是娱乐业的发展趋势。而在这方面没有谁比网飞公司做得更大了。去年网飞公司就占据了网络总流量的百分之四十。强强争斗没有结果，唯有收购这一条出路。现在康卡斯特（价值1920亿美元）和网飞公司（价值420亿美元）最有可能走到一起。虽然一般情况下是大公司吞并小公司，但也不排除相反的情况——15年前美国在线就曾收购时代华纳。但与之相比，康卡斯特和网飞的合并或许会有更好的结果。

6. Antidrone technology will rise

反无人机技术将出现

The only thing people love more than reading about drones is hating them — witness all the cheering when a Kentucky man blasted one out of the sky with his shotgun last July. (Not to mention all the animals that love to attack drones.) Look for companies to come up with antidrone technology that use nonballistic methods of ridding the flight zones of these pests. Let the games begin, and let the odds be ever in the antidrones’ favor.

虽然人们对无人机技术充满兴趣，但却抑制不住对无人机的厌恶之感。今年七月，肯塔基州的一名男子开枪打下了一架无人机，引起了围观者的欢呼（更别说还有很多动物也喜欢攻击无人机了）。现在有的公司正开发反无人机技术，这种技术不用枪弹，而是采用了一种挤占无人机飞机空间的方法。好戏就要开始，希望这项技术真能派上用场。

7. Facebook will continue to eat the world

Facebook将继续主宰世界

The Facebook juggernaut will continue, though most of its membership growth will be overseas. However, expect a public backlash as Facebook assumes just a bit too much control over the media it arbitrarily delivers to everyone’s feeds. How many autoplay videos of bacon, egg, and cheese breadboats can one person watch?

随着海外用户的增加，Facebook将继续主宰世界。然而人们现在抗议Facebook管得太宽，人们不得不被迫看一些自己不想看的视频。可以统计一下，现在每个人要在Facebook上看多少次培根、鸡蛋和芝士面包的自动播放的视频？

8. Cyberterrorists will attack the Internet

网络恐怖主义来袭

We’ve seen targeted hack attacks on a massive scale, and we’ve seen state-sponsored cyberespionage. In 2016 we will see them converge, with a direct attack on the Internet infrastructure motivated by politics, not greed or misplaced juvenile aggression. Time to back up your data, encrypt your hard drives, and stock up on beef jerky and tinfoil.

我们目睹过大规模的黑客攻击，也见识过国家支持的网络间谍活动。在新的一年里它们将结合起来，在政治目的的驱动下直接对网络基础设施展开攻击，而不再是愤青们的盲目行为。所以，是时候备份数据，加密硬盘，囤积好牛肉干和锡纸了。

9. There will be an Uber for friends

朋友出租服务将上线

Need a date for a party or someone to hang with at a ballgame? Just share someone else’s. Frog Design predicts the rise of “friendship as a service in 2016. We liked that prediction so much we decided to borrow it. Isn’t that what the sharing economy is all about?

想参加聚会、想打球但却苦于找不到伴吗？完全可以从别人那租一个来！据青蛙设计公司（Frog Design）预测，“朋友出租服务将于2016年上线。有需求就可以租，这和“分享型经济不是同一个道理吗？

10. Your next boss may be an algorithm

老板也许会是机器人

Artificial intelligence will continue to be baked into an increasing number of devices and services. More than that, though, entire companies may be built around self-running programs, with business decisions made without any human intervention. Think we’re joking? The first decentralized organizations are already being developed for the Ethereum Frontier network. We have met our robotic overlords, and we’d like a 10 percent raise and more flex time, please.

人工智能技术将运用到更多的产品和服务中去。甚至整个公司都有可能实现自动运作。通过编排程序，商业决策或许不需要人的参与。这可不是开玩笑，以太坊（Ethereum）的Frontier平台就在实行分散性运作。这么说我们的老板也许会是机器人。那么请给我加薪百分之十再给我更多的弹性时间吧，老板！

Vocabulary

niche: 小众的

augmented reality: 增强现实

juggernaut: 使人盲目崇拜的事物

cyberespionage: 网络间谍