首席经济学家：机器人将替代人类50%的工作

The robot takeover of the world may not be as dramatic as we thought. It won’t come in the form of explosions, but rather in the form of employment. Yikes.

机器人掌管世界不会像我们想象的那么戏剧化。它会以受雇佣，而不是爆炸的形式出现。

In a classic scenario of the student surpassing the master, our eagerness to make robots that are increasingly sophisticated and capable of truly remarkable tasks has, perhaps, rendered ourselves rather redundant (if not altogether obsolete). “Technology appears to be resulting in faster, wider and deeper degrees of hollowing-out than in the past,” said Andy Haldane, the Bank’s chief economist. Because the machines of today can not only perform menial tasks, but are also capable of creative thought, humans may no longer be able to compete.

在学生赶超师傅的经典一幕中，我们急于制造更加复杂和能完成大任务的机器人可能只会使我们自己更加不被需要（如果不是完全过时的话）。银行首席经济学家安迪·哈尔丹说：“技术与以往相比呈现出更快，范围更广和更深程度的空洞化。”因为今天的机器不仅能做不需要技巧的任务，还能有创造性的思考，很多任务人类可能都不能完成。

“These machines are different,” Haldane told CNN. “Unlike in the past, they have the potential to substitute for human brains as well as hands.”

安迪告诉美国广播公司说：“这些机器是不一样的，不同于过去的那些机器，他们有能力替代人类的双手和大脑。”

So what jobs are most at risk? According to an Oxford University study published last year, loan officers, receptionists, paralegals, salespeople, drivers, security guards, fast food cooks, bartenders, and financial advisers all risk at least a 50 percent chance of being automated. And at this year’s Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles, Amy Webb, a digital media futurist and founder of Webbmedia Group, suggested that added marketers (a rather broad term), journalists, and lawyers to the mix too.

那么什么工作最具风险呢？根据牛津大学去年发表的研究显示，贷款人员、接待员、律师、销售员、司机、警卫、快餐厨师、调酒师和财务顾问，这些工作都有至少50%的几率被自动化。在今年的洛杉矶的米尔肯研究院全球会议（Milken Global Conference）上，韦伯媒体集团的创始人和数字媒体未来主义者艾米·韦伯认为营销人员（一个相当广泛的术语）、记者和律师这些岗位也存在被替代风险。

Considering that much of journalism is already done by way of computers, to say that I’m completely unconcerned would be a bit of a stretch.

大部分资讯工作已经由电脑完成，说我完全不关心是有点夸张了。

But still, Haldane notes, humans don’t really have all that much to fear. Just because robots replace the jobs of today doesn’t mean that we won’t create new ones for tomorrow. “Humans will adapt their skills to the tasks where they continue to have a comparative advantage over machines,” he noted. Although to be fair, “The smarter machines become, the greater the likelihood that the space remaining for uniquely human skills could shrink further.”

但安迪仍说，人类没必要那么惊恐。因为机器人代替人类今天的工作不代表我们人类明天不能创造新的工作。他说，“人类将应用他们的技能到一个新的领域中，他们仍会比机器人有优势。”尽管公平来说，“机器越智能，人类独特的技能空间可能就越小。”

So let this be a lesson to you, current and future college students. Pick a major that isn’t duplicable by robots. It may be the only way to stay competitive come the 22nd century.

所以敲响警钟吧，现在和未来的大学生们。选择一个不能被机器人替代的职业。这可能是在22世纪保持竞争力的唯一途径。

Vocabulary

menial: 卑微的；适合仆人做的

duplicable: 可复制的