如何投资中国消费热潮

China’s economic output increased by 6.9 per cent inthe third quarter, year-on-year — its most sluggishperformance since the global financial crisis — according to data published this week.

本周公布的数据显示，第三季度中国经济产出同比增长6.9%，这是自全球金融危机以来最缓慢的增长。

But behind this lacklustre number, China’s consumers are spending more and the job marketappears robust (see charts), which makes certain sectors of the economy a potentiallyattractive investment.

但是，在低迷的数字背后，中国的消费者支出日益增长，就业市场看起来很健康(见下面两个图表)，这使得中国经济中的某些行业潜在地具有投资吸引力。

Five years ago, China achieved double-digit growth, which the government created by pouringdebt into new railways, roads and bridges and allowing abundant credit to create a propertybubble.

5年前，由于政府通过举债大力兴建铁路、公路和桥梁，允许大量信贷在房地产行业滋生泡沫，中国经济增速达到了两位数。

While the stimulus investing has slowed, China’s retailers, travel and tourism groups andpassenger transport companies that make up the so-called service sector are still doing well.This services sector grew 8.6 per cent year-on-year, in the third quarter, up from 8.4 per centin the first half.

尽管刺激性投资已经放缓，中国的零售商、旅行和旅游组织以及客运公司——它们属于所谓的服务业——仍然运行良好。第三季度，服务业产值同比增长8.6%，增速较上半年的8.4%有所加快。

“The Chinese economy is undoubtedly shifting towards consumption, said Julian EvansPritchard, analyst at Capital Economics. “Chinese statistics can be unreliable, but on a numberof measures we monitor, from passenger rail transport to the distances people are travelling,to air travel to courier services to electricity consumption, the services sector is healthy.

“中国经济毫无疑问正在向消费转变，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的分析师朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(JulianEvans-Pritchard)称，“中国的统计数字或许不可靠，但是根据我们监测的许多指标——从铁路客运到人们外出旅游的路程长短，从航空旅行到快递服务和用电——服务业正处于健康状态。

Why is China’s services sector doing relatively well?

中国服务业为何表现相对良好?

With little in the way of a traditional welfare state, China has long been a nation of savers. Butspending on non-essential goods and services has been on the rise. Caravan parks aregrowing in popularity, while China accounted for $4.8bn of box office receipts last year,according to the Motion Picture Association of America. The government has also thrown itsweight behind leisure spending as it helps rebalance the economy away from investment. InJuly, Chinese state news agency Xinhua publicised a “camping market in the hills outside thewestern Chinese city of Chongqing, where stallholders sell goods, from “designer weddingdresses to Spanish wine, from their tents.

与传统的福利国家不同，中国长久以来一直是储蓄国。但是，中国消费者在非必需商品和服务上的支出一直处于上升态势。房车营地日益流行。据美国电影协会(Motion Picture Association of America)数据显示，去年中国的电影票房收入达到48亿美元。中国政府也在大力支持休闲性消费，因为这有助于中国经济再平衡，减少对投资的依赖。7月，中国国家通讯社新华社对西部城市重庆郊外山区的“宿营市场进行了报道，那里的商贩在帐篷中出售从“设计师婚纱到西班牙红酒等各式商品。

Ok, so how do I invest in that?

好吧，那么我如何在这方面投资?

That is the hard part. Because of weak accounting and corporate governance standards inChina, and the risk that a company or an entire industry can suddenly fall out of favour with theCommunist Party leadership, buying shares in Chinese companies is a high-risk activity.

难点就在这里。由于中国的会计及公司治理标准较不完善，而且一家企业乃至整个行业都有可能突然失宠于共产党领导层，因此购买中国公司的股票是一项高风险投资。

Gome provides a case study in what can go wrong. The electricals retailer was founded byHuang Guangyu, an entrepreneur who was once China’s richest man. He is now one of thecountry’s richest prisoners, having been jailed in 2010 for 14 years for insider trading andbribery, which are punishments that China’s politically controlled courts impose selectively.The company remains in good health, and superficially offers a good consumer growth story,as more Chinese households are buying washing machines and fridges. But in July, Gome’sshares plunged 15 per cent in a day after the retailer bought some assets from the jailed MrHuang at what analysts said was an inflated price.

国美电器(Gome)就是一个实例。这家电器零售商由黄光裕创立，他曾经是中国首富。而如今，黄光裕成了中国最富有的囚犯之一，他于2010年因内幕交易和贿赂而被判有期徒刑14年，这是受政治控制的中国法庭选择性施加的惩罚。该公司如今仍然运行良好，表面上看来是一个很好的消费增长故事，因为越来越多的中国家庭购买洗衣机和冰箱。但是，7月国美从狱中的黄光裕手中购买了部分资产后，股价一天之内暴跌了15%——据分析师表示，收购价格过高。

Can I invest in assets that track China consumer spending?

我可以投资追踪中国消费者支出的资产吗?

Cautious investors can gain exposure to growth without actually investing in Chinese shares,though this used to be much easier. In the days of double-digit growth fuelled by fixed assetinvestment, global or Australian miners of materials such as copper and iron ore were apopular choice.

谨慎的投资者可以在不实际投资中国股票的情况下享受中国增长带来的收益，尽管这在过去更加容易。在固定资产投资推动中国经济两位数增长的时代，全球尤其是澳大利亚开采铜、铁矿石等资源的矿商都是热门的投资选择。

Tom Stevenson, Fidelity investment director, says it is worth looking at Japanese companiesthat benefit from growth in Chinese tourism, as Japan has better corporate governance andaccounting standards than less developed countries in Asia.

富达(Fidelity)投资总监汤姆史蒂文森(Tom Stevenson)称，可以看看受益于中国旅游发展的日本企业，因为日本的公司治理及会计标准高于亚洲较不发达国家。

Tempted by the weak yen, Chinese tourists have been flocking to Japan to buy basic goodsthey traditionally prefer purchasing abroad, such as vitamins, nappies and toilet seats. KaoCorporation, a Japanese group which makes a brand of nappies called Merries that are popularin China, is currently a darling of western asset managers. Its shares, however, reflect thatenthusiasm, currently trading on 32 times forecast earnings.

受日元贬值的吸引，中国游客蜂拥前往日本购买他们一般倾向于在海外购买的日常用品，如维生素、尿片和马桶圈等。日本花王集团(KaoCorporation)是在中国大受欢迎的尿片品牌妙而舒(Merries)的生产商，该集团眼下正是西方资产管理公司的宠儿。然而，花王股票的预期市盈率达到32倍，这也反映出市场热情。

Are there any managed funds I can use?

现在中国有我可以利用的管理基金吗?

There are many, with scores of managers prioritising the consumer sector.

有很多，其中许多基金管理公司都很看重消费领域。

China has humbled many a professional investor, though. A China fund run by Fidelity’sAnthony Bolton, who was considered a stockpicking guru in the UK, did less well than investorsexpected. When he retired two years ago, he admitted he had got many things wrong aboutthe market.

不过，很多专业投资者在中国遭遇惨败。由富达的安东尼波顿(Anthony Bolton)在中国管理的一只基金，表现逊于投资者预期。波顿在英国被认为是选股大师。两年前退休时，他承认对中国市场很多事情都想错了。

There are some managers of pan-Asian funds who are playing the Chinese consumer boomwithout owning too many risky Chinese companies. One is Angus Tulloch, who runs the FirstState Asia Pacific Leaders fund and whose second-biggest holding is Taiwan SemiconductorManufacturing Corp, a huge supplier of the chips that power Chinese smartphones. His third-largest is Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison, which owns a clutch of retailers in theterritory, from drugstore Watsons to electricals chain Fortress, that are popular withshoppers visiting from Chinese mainland.

现在有一些泛亚洲基金的经理正在利用中国消费热潮，却对高风险的中国公司持股不多。杜乐奇(AngusTulloch)就是其中一位，他管理着First State Asia Pacific Leaders基金。他持有股份第二多的企业是台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp)。台积电是助力中国智能手机行业发展的芯片的供应商巨头。杜乐奇持股第三多的是香港的长江和记实业(CK Hutchison Holdings)。长江和记在香港拥有众多零售商，从药店屈臣氏(Watsons)到电器连锁商丰泽(Fortress)，这些零售商很受中国内地来港购物者的青睐。

Mr Tulloch’s fund charges a hefty initial entry fee of 4 per cent, followed by a 1.6 per centannual fee. In the past 12 months it has returned minus 6.8 per cent. Trustnet, however,points out that Mr Tulloch has “over a long track record outperformed his peers “more oftenthan not.

杜乐奇的基金收取4%的高额入场费，之后收取1.6%的年费。在过去12个月中，该基金的回报率为-6.8%。然而，金融数据提供商TrustNet指出，依据“很长一段时间的记录，杜乐奇“经常跑赢同行。

Are there any exchange traded funds?

有交易所交易基金(ETF)吗?

Research has regularly shown that most active fund managers cannot beat the market, and ofcourse any star manager’s past performance is no indication of how they will fare in thefuture. Exchange-traded funds, which are lower-cost instruments that passively track abasket of stocks, are another option. According to the ETFDB database, there is one suchtracker available, the Global X China Consumer ETF. It is listed on the New York StockExchange, however, so British investors may want to seek advice from a stockbroker orfinancial adviser to decide whether it is suitable for them.

常有研究表明，最主动的基金经理无法打败市场，当然任何明星经理过去的表现都不能代表他们未来的表现。被动追踪一篮子股票的低成本工具ETF，是另外一种选择。ETFDB数据库显示，在中国有一个可供使用的此类工具——“中国消费者指数ETF-Global X。不过，该ETF在纽约证交所上市，因此英国投资者或许希望咨询股票经纪人或金融顾问，以决定该ETF是否适合他们。