这是电视节目的黄金时代还是过剩时代

John Landgraf’s comments arrived like a thunderbolt.

约翰·兰德格拉夫(John Landgraf)的评论不啻为一声惊雷。

There’s a malaise in TV these days that’s felt among executives, viewers and critics, said Mr.Landgraf, the chief executive of FX Networks. And it’s the result of one thing: There is simplytoo much on television.

这位FX电视网的首席执行官说，高管、观众与评论家们都感觉到，如今的电视界存在着令人不安的感觉。而这只有一个原因：电视内容实在太多了。

The glut, he said at a Television Critics Association media event earlier this month, has made ithard to “cut through the clutter and create real buzz and has presented “a huge challenge infinding compelling original stories and the level of talent needed to sustain those stories.

8月初，他在电视评论家协会(Television Critics Association)的一次媒体活动上说，这种过量供应令电视节目很难“透过喧嚣，创造真正刺激的东西，因此，“找到精彩的原创故事，以及有相应的水准能把这些故事维持下去的人才，就成了巨大的挑战。

On the face of it, the assertion seemed absurd. After all, critics and viewers alike have hailedthis as another golden age of television, where shows as diverse and popular as “Game ofThrones and “Empire have become an indelible part of the culture, elevating TV from second-class status to a medium attracting top actors and film directors.

表面看来，这番断言显得很荒谬。毕竟，评论家和观众们都欢呼此时是电视的又一个黄金时代。诸如《权力的游戏》(Game of Thrones)和《嘻哈帝国》(Empire)等形形色色、大受欢迎的电视剧，都是这种文化不可磨灭的一部分，它们令电视从二流地位一跃成为吸引顶尖演员和电影导演的媒介。

But Mr. Landgraf’s comments were not dismissed as absurd or hyperbolic. Instead, Mr.Landgraf ignited a serious conversation, and no small amount of self-reflection, about howmuch is too much, and whether something is seriously out of whack in TV land.

但是兰德格拉夫的评论并没有被斥为荒谬夸张。正相反，他的话引发了严肃的讨论，以及大量的反省，人们开始思考，“过多的度在哪里，电视的世界是否真的出现了什么问题。

“I hear it all the time, said Michael Lombardo, the president of programming at HBO. “Peoplegoing, ‘I can’t commit to another show, and I don’t have the time to emotionally commit toanother show.’ I hear that, and I’m aware of it, and I get it.

“我一直都听到这种话，HBO台节目总监迈克尔·隆巴多(Michael Lombardo)说。“人们说，‘我不能再追新剧了，我没时间再为另一部新剧投入感情了。’听到这个，我就明白了，我就懂了。

Mr. Lombardo and other executives say it is harder than ever to build an audience for a showwhen viewers are confronted with so many choices and might click away at any moment. As aresult, executives say, it’s hard to make money off that show.

罗姆巴多和其他行政人员说，如今，要为一档节目建立起观众群变得更加困难，因为观众已有那么多的选择，而且随时都可以点击关闭。因此，行政人员们说，一档节目要赚钱就更不容易。

The success of scripted shows like “Modern Family, “The Walking Dead and others has set offsomething like a land grab. The number of scripted shows produced by networks, cablenetworks and online services ballooned to 371 last year, according to statistics compiled by FX.Mr. Landgraf believes that figure will pass 400 this year, which would nearly double the 211shows made in 2009.

《摩登家庭》(Modern Family)和《行尸走肉》(The Walking Dead)等脚本电视剧大获成功，这是建立在抢先占领地盘的基础上的。根据FX统计的数据，去年，各家无线台、有线台和在线服务投拍的剧集猛增至371部。兰德格拉夫认为，今年这个数字应当会超过400部，比2009年的211部多了将近一倍。

“What I’ve seen for years and years and years, when we go out and talk to audiences, is thattelevision is less precious to them because there’s so much of it, Mr. Landgraf said in aninterview. “Television episodes, television shows, television programmers are all a dime adozen.

“年复一年，我们走出去和观众们交流时，总会感到电视在他们心目中变得不再珍贵，就是因为有太多电视节目了，兰德格拉夫在一次采访中说。“那么多电视剧、电视节目、电视制作人，根本就不值钱。

“There’s a mismatch right now between the capital allocation of making and marketing TV showsand the audience they’re generating, he added.

“目前，在电视节目的制作与市场营销上投入的资金，与其所吸引到的观众之间的比例并不协调，他补充道。

The hand-wringing and cautionary words come at a time of transition for many televisioncompanies. Media stocks tumbled earlier this month over what analysts said was a lack ofconfidence in cable bundles that had become too bloated and expensive. Consolidation hastaken hold in the industry as media companies try to grow and gain more leverage.

这番绝望而又充满告诫的言辞脱口之时，正值多家电视公司转型之际。8月初，传媒股票迎来大跌，分析人士称，这是因为对过分膨胀与昂贵的有线类股票缺乏信心所致。行业内不断发生合并，各家传媒公司都在努力发展，试图获得更多影响力。

Diminished ratings in television have been a reality for some time, but that has largely beencredited to technological challenges and changes in viewing habits. Mr. Landgraf,counterintuitively, attributes declining ratings, in part, to too much choice, no matter howgood the show.

电视收视率下降有些时候确实是事实，但这主要是因为技术的挑战，以及收视习惯的改变。兰德格拉夫认为，收视率的下降部分是由于选择太多，不管节目有多么精彩。这个看法和人们的直觉不太一样。

For programmers, the challenge is a creative one: Is there really that much talent to goaround? And for cable channels and the networks, it’s another problem: They have ad-supported businesses, so what happens when people can’t find their shows?

对于节目制作者们来说，挑战在于创作的层面：真的有那么多的人才吗?对于有线台和无线台来说，则是另一个问题：他们的生意是靠广告来支持的，所以，如果人们找不到适合自己的节目怎么办?

“Why should I start a new series that John Landgraf creates on FX when I can go start‘Breaking Bad’? said Rich Greenfield, a media analyst with BTIG. “I may get to John’s show, butI may not get to it for three years. And for companies where a huge part of the business modelis built around TV advertising, if you don’t watch it in the first three days, it’s worth nothingfrom an advertising standpoint.

“有《绝命毒师》(Breaking Bad)看，我为什么要看约翰·兰德格拉夫在FX拍的新剧呢?BTIG媒体分析师里奇·格林菲尔德(Rich Greenfield)说。“我可能会去看约翰的剧，但我可能不会一连看三年。对于那些大部分商业模式都是围绕电视广告建立的公司来说，如果你在上映后的三天里不看这部剧，从广告的角度而言，它就一钱不值了。

Showtime’s president, David Nevins, however, said he thinks viewers are hardly troubled bythe extensive menu of offerings.

不过映时台(Showtime)总裁大卫·内文思(David Nevins)说，他觉得观众不会太担心选择过多的问题。

“No matter how much they like whatever show they’re watching right now, they’re saying, ‘What else should I be watching?’ he said. “They want more.

“不管他们多喜欢眼下正在看的剧，他们总会说，‘我还能再看点什么?’他说。“他们总想看更多。

Charlie Collier, the president of AMC, was even more forceful. “ ‘Too much TV’ sounds likesurrender, he said. “Actually, the answer to too much TV is and has always been the nextgreat series, the one that makes viewers drop everything and show up for the event.

AMC台总裁查理·科利尔(Charlie Collier)措辞更强烈。“‘电视节目太多’听上去像投降，他说。“事实上，对于太多的电视节目，答案永远是下一部精彩的剧集，一部让所有观众都能放下手头所有事情，一到时间就去看的剧集。

Others also point out that the explosion in programming has created more opportunity forshows with diverse casts and topics, such as “Jane the Virgin, “Transparent and “Orange Isthe New Black. Marti Noxon, the showrunner for Lifetime’s “UnREAL and Bravo’s “Girlfriends’Guide to Divorce, said there’s been a “sea change in the last five years.

还有人指出，电视节目的大爆发为各种演员和题材创造了更多的机会，比如《处女情缘》(Jane the Virgin)、《透明家庭》(Transparent)和《女子监狱》(Orange Is the New Black)。马丁·诺克森(Martin Noxon)是Lifetime台《镜花水月》(UnREAL)与Bravo台《闺蜜离婚指南》(Girlfriends’ Guide to Divorce)的主创，她说过去五年里发生了“天翻地覆的变化。

“I couldn’t have gotten those two shows on TV five years ago, she said. “There was notenough opportunity for voices that speak to a smaller audience. Now many of these places arelooking to reach some people — not all the people. That’s opened up a tremendousopportunity for women and other people that have been left out of the conversation.

“五年前，我不可能在电视台得到那两部剧，她说。“只对少数观众发言的声音得不到足够的机会。如今，很多电视台都在努力接触一些人群——并不是所有人群。因此女人和其他曾被拒之门外的人有了极大的机会。

The proliferation of TV shows has also created a pipeline for talent in the industry, said ChrisAlbrecht, the chief executive of Starz. Good shows, he said, become good training grounds“for good writers who then become good showrunners.

电视节目的膨胀也为行业内的人才提供了平台，Starz台的首席执行官克里斯·阿尔布莱希特(Chris Albrechet)说。他还说，好的节目是“优秀作者的好的训练场，可以帮他们成为优秀的剧集主创。

The boom has been spurred by several factors: The television season is now a year-roundevent, with new shows coming on the air even in summer. And the number of programmers,whether on cable or streaming services like Amazon or Netflix, has risen tremendously. (“Thisyear, I finally lost track of the ability to keep track of every programmer who is in the scripted-programming business, Mr. Landgraf said at T.C.A.)

这种繁荣景象受到几个因素的刺激：电视业内的一季如今以一年为周期，新剧从夏天就开始上映。不管是有线台还是亚马逊或Netflix等流媒体，它们的节目制作者都在大量崛起(“今年，我终于不再有能力关注每个剧本节目界的制作者的情况，兰德格拉夫在电视评论家协会的活动中说)。

But streaming services like Hulu aren’t just producing new shows, they’re also salvaging oldones. “The Mindy Project was rejected by the audience, and Fox canceled it after its thirdseason. But Hulu, which relies on paid subscriptions, picked up the show, and its fourth seasonwill debut on the streaming service next month.

但是Hulu这样的流媒体不再满足于制作新剧，它们还在旧剧中寻宝。《明迪烦事多》(The Mindy Project)不受观众喜欢，第三季之后被Fox砍掉。但是建立在付费会员制基础上的Hulu重新拾起了它，它的第四季将于下月在这家流媒体服务网站上映。

“It’s not a glut of programming, it’s a glut of choices. And we are happily part of that, saidCraig Erwich, Hulu’s head of content. “One of our values here is we put the viewer first, and wewant to overwhelm them with choice and let them decide what they want to do.

“问题不在于节目，而是在于选择太多。我们为此有点高兴，Hulu内容部门的负责人克里格·厄维奇(CraigErwich)说。“我们的一条价值观就是观众至上，我们希望用各种选择淹没他们，让他们决定自己该怎么办。

Another complication is that shows not only compete against one another, but also againstold series that live on in the archives of Amazon, Hulu or Netflix. So a new season of “Scandal,for example, is also competing against old series like “The Wire.

另一个复杂的问题是，各种节目不止是互相竞争，而且也要和亚马逊、Hulu和Netflix存档的老剧竞争。所以《丑闻》(Scandal)这样的新剧也要和《火线》(The Wire)这样的老剧竞争。

Mr. Landgraf said he thinks a contraction is coming. He predicted that the number of showswould slowly return to about 325 over the next few years, in large part because scriptedtelevision is expensive.

兰德格拉夫说，他认为行业的收缩即将到来。他预言，电视剧的数量会在未来几年缓慢下降到每年325部，主要是由于有脚本的电视节目太昂贵。

“It’s a big operation, he said. “Cameras, sound, locations, insurance, trucks, actors, crew,director, writer. It’s not a business that can be scaled in a different way. YouTube can make adifferent kind of television content relatively inexpensively in a warehouse, but professionallymade scripted television content is capital intensive and therefore requires a large audience.

“这是一项大工程，他说。“镜头、音响、外景、保险、卡车、演员、剧组、导演、编剧。这不是一个能以不同方式衡量的产业。YouTube在一间仓库里就能以相对便宜的经费做出另一种电视内容，但是专业脚本电视内容是资本密集产业，因此需要大量观众。

Media companies have responded to the growing challenges in different ways. Mr. Landgraf saidthat FX has been aggressive in producing and owning its own shows.

传媒公司以各种形式应对日益增长的挑战。兰德格拉夫说，FX台正在积极制作和获取属于自己的剧集。

HBO, which does not depend on advertising, is responding in its own way. Mr. Lombardo saidhe spends much of his time with other kinds of programming since scripted shows are soprevalent, adding that his “audience is becoming inured to the distinctiveness of a show.

HBO台不需要依赖广告，因此也有自己的做法。罗姆巴多说，现在他花很多时间看其他类型的节目，因为脚本节目太多了，他说，“观众开始对有个性的节目见怪不怪。

“Do we want to do another drama series? he said. “No. Unless it has the potential to be great.What we’re looking to do is offer a variety of kind of television entertainment engagementexperiences.

“我们还需要再拍一部情节连续剧吗?他说。“不，除非它有成为伟大作品的潜力。我们现在想做的，是提供各种各样的电视娱乐体验。

He cited documentary series like “The Jinx, about the fugitive Robert Durst, and talk showslike those hosted by John Oliver and a forthcoming show featuring Bill Simmons as examples ofprogramming that gets more of his attention these days. HBO also recently picked up the rightsto “Sesame Street.

他援引了《纽约灾星》(The Jinx)这部纪录片，它是关于逃亡者罗伯特·德斯特(Robert Durst)的;还有像约翰·奥利佛(John Oliver)主持的脱口秀;以及即将上映的，有比尔·西蒙斯(Bill Simmons)参演的节目，这些都是近日来引发他更多关注的节目。HBO台最近还得到了《芝麻街》(Sesame Street)的各项版权。

“Over the last few years, we had as many serious conversations about a Bill Simmons as wewould the next great drama series, he said. “In terms of what are the big things coming upnext year? I spend as much of my time thinking about that as I do in rooms with writers. Mr.Landgraf, whose network has created successful shows like “Louie, “Fargo and “TheAmericans, said there’s a “fussiness among viewers that is making it more difficult for them tobecome loyal to great shows.

“过去几年里，我们想打造一部伟大的情节剧，就比尔·西蒙斯的剧集做了很多严肃的讨论，他说。“明年的重磅大戏是什么?我花了好多时间思考，也花了好多时间和编剧们在房间里讨论。兰德格拉夫的电视台拍出了《路易不容易》(Louie)、《冰血暴》(Fargo)和《美国谍影》(The Americans)等成功剧集，他说观众们会“到处瞎看，所以对优秀剧集保持忠诚对他们来说就更不容易。

Some shows take time, he said, for the producers to learn how to make, and for the audienceto learn how to watch.

他说，有些剧集需要时间，好让制作人学习怎样去制作，也让观众学习怎样去欣赏。

“Some of the best things — ‘Seinfeld’ would be an example — are shows that people don’t getat first, it’s just too radical an idea, Mr. Landgraf said.

“有些最棒的东西，比如《宋飞正传》(Seinfeld)一开始都不为人接受，因为它的观念太激进了。

Shows like that no longer have the luxury of time, he said.

这样的剧集已经不再能够拥有奢侈的时间，他说。

“The ‘Seinfeld’ of today, he continued, “would have a lot of trouble of getting past the filter ofaudiences.

“如今的《宋飞正传》要想通过观众这一关，会遇到很多麻烦，他说。