中国经济减速后消费概念转变

Until recently, the easiest way to make money inChina was selling discretionary goods that were notdiscreet. Aspirational brands from Burberry to Jaguar Land Rover profited nicely fromconsumerism unleashed.

直到不久前，在中国最轻松的赚钱方式还是销售奢华的非必需品(discretionary goods)。从博柏利(Burberry)到捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)，那些人们渴望拥有的品牌从中国兴起的消费主义中获利丰厚。

That era is over, and many foreign investors who once made bold bets on Chinese baubles arecowering before a stock market crash and a wobbly economy. But the Chinese consumer hasnot stopped spending; he or she is spending differently. Retail sales growth for July was upone-tenth from a year earlier. A significant slowdown from the 23 per cent pace reached duringthe 2008 stimulus, but as buyers start to differentiate between goods there will beopportunities to outgrow the market. Those frightened by China’s current meltdown —everyone, that is — will look to defensive consumer staples.

现在这个时代已经结束，许多曾经大胆押注中国奢侈品市场的外国投资者在股市暴跌和经济不稳面前退缩了。但中国消费者并未停止消费;只不过是他们花钱的方式有所不同了。7月零售销售同比增长10%。这远低于2008年刺激方案出台期间23%的增幅，但随着消费者开始注重商品之间的差别，有些品牌的增长将超过整体市场。那些被中国当前严峻局面吓到的人(也就是所有人)将考虑防御性的必需消费品领域。

A recent report from consultants Bain and Kantar Worldwide argues that China’s shoppers willpay up for quality when choosing everyday items. Foreign brands have been winning in somepremium segments. As the Chinese trade up, beer makers such as Budweiser and Heinekenhave taken share from local producers. Last year, domestic market leader China ResourcesEnterprise’s beer turnover rose by 5 per cent, but profit from the division declined by nearlyone-fifth as competition forced more promotional activities. Still, in recent interim resultsCRE’s average selling price also benefited from the shift towards premium products.

咨询公司贝恩(Bain)和Kantar Worldwide最近在一篇报告中指出，中国消费者在选购日常用品时愿意为优质商品多付费。在一些高端市场，外国品牌一直占优势。随着中国人青睐高端产品，百威(Budweiser)和喜力(Heineken)等啤酒制造商夺走了本土生产商的一些市场份额。去年，本土领军品牌华润创业(ChinaResources Enterprise)的啤酒业务收入增长5%，但由于竞争加剧，该公司不得不推出更多促销活动，使得其利润下降近五分之一。不过，在最近发布的中期业绩报告中，华润的平均售价也因转向高端产品而受益。

In most product categories, however, the gains have skewed far more clearly to domesticbrands. This is due in large part to their presence in lower-tier cities, where retail growth hasbeen strongest and locals have a distribution advantage. Bernstein Research points out thatdomestic leader in sanitary napkins, Hengan, fits this mould. At 19 times forward earnings forlow-teens growth, it is not cheap. At the moment, however, defensiveness seems worth payingfor.

然而，在大多数产品种类中，国内品牌的优势明显大得多。这在很大程度上得益于它们在一线以外城市的布局，这些城市的零售增长最为强劲，而且本土企业在分销方面有优势。伯恩斯坦研究公司(BernsteinResearch)指出，本土卫生巾领军品牌恒安集团(Hengan)就属于这种类型。按10%至15%之间的盈利增长计算，恒安的预期市盈率达到19倍，这并不便宜。然而，就目前而言，选择防御性投资目标似乎是值得的。