希腊债务可持续性堪忧

The European institutions overseeing Greece’sbailout have expressed “serious concerns over thesustainability of the country’s debt, bringing theminto line with the more pessimistic assessment ofthe International Monetary Fund.

监督希腊纾困的欧洲机构对该国债务的可持续性表示“严重关切，这使欧方的口径与国际货币基金组织(IMF)比较悲观的评估基本一致。

The European Commission and the European CentralBank argue in a new analysis that debt reliefmeasures, including extending repayment periods, would allow Athens to achieve debtsustainability, a solution advocated by the IMF. They say such moves would avoid the need fora full-scale haircut.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)和欧洲央行(ECB)在一项新的分析中提出，债务减免措施(包括延长还款期)将使雅典方面能够实现债务可持续——这正是IMF倡导的解决方案。他们表示，这样的举措将意味着不需要全面减记债务。

The conclusion provides a boost to Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras on the day he seeksto push a highly contentious reform and austerity programme through parliament as part ofa new 85bn rescue programme agreed in outline on Tuesday. It will heap pressure on Berlinto back substantial debt relief for Athens when Greece’s creditors discuss the issue in theautumn.

这个结论有利于希腊总理齐普拉斯騠虎克西斯(Alexis Tsipras)，他正在推动该国议会通过一项备受争议的改革和财政紧缩计划，这是各方在周二达成框架协议的850亿欧元新救助计划的一部分。另一方面，这个结论将使柏林方面受到压力，要求其在希腊的债权人今秋讨论这个问题时，支持向希腊提供大幅债务减免。

But the study could also exacerbate German concerns about ploughing ahead with a newbailout, given the scepticism in chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservative CDU/CSU blocabout Greece’s ability to deliver on reform promises and create the conditions for economicrecovery.

但这项研究也可能加剧德国对于推进新纾困计划的担忧。德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导的保守的基民盟/基社盟(CDU/CSU)执政联盟，本来就对希腊兑现改革承诺、为经济复苏创造条件的能力持怀疑态度。

Germany, together with some other hardline eurozone members, has given Greek calls for debtrelief short shrift, saying that any “nominal haircut would be illegal under the EU treaties.

对于希腊要求债务减免的呼吁，德国和其他一些强硬的欧元区成员国一直不屑一顾。他们称，根据欧盟条约，任何“名义减记都是不合法的。

But the analysis by the European institutions suggests that extending maturities coupled withother grace periods would make an outright haircut unnecessary.

但上述欧洲机构的分析表明，延长偿债期限，加上其他宽限期安排，将意味着没有必要进行全面减记。

Without maturity extensions — or similar actions — there would be “serious concernsregarding the sustainability of Greece’s public debt, it says.

分析报告称，若不能延长偿债期限，也没有类似行动，就会存在“对于希腊公共债务可持续性的严重关切。

Eurozone finance ministers are due to debate the outline agreement between Athens and itsbailout monitors on the new 85bn rescue today. Germany has said the deal is insufficient andwants more time to work out the details.

欧元区财长将于今日辩论雅典方面与纾困监督员就新的850亿欧元救助方案达成的框架协议。德国曾表示，这份协议力度不够，并希望有更多时间来敲定细节。

But Berlin is becoming increasingly isolated in its reluctance to endorse a new rescue asother hardliners gave it their blessing. Alex Stubb, Finland’s finance minister, said he was readyto give the go-ahead to a new bailout. “We are turning the page in this crisis. Hopefully we willsee Greece back on the path of recovery. The messages we are getting from Athens areprobably a bit more committed than in the past.

但是，柏林方面不愿支持新救助方案的立场，正使其越来越孤立，因为其他强硬的欧元区伙伴已表示赞同。芬兰财长亚历克斯斯图布(Alex Stubb)表示，他准备同意新的纾困方案。“我们正在翻开这场危机的新的一页。希望我们会看到希腊回到复苏的道路上。我们从雅典方面获得的承诺很可能比过去诚恳了一些。

Although debt relief will not be formally discussed until after the summer, it could still becomean issue in today’s talks. Berlin is insisting on the IMF’s full participation in a new bailout ofGreece before deciding whether to back the deal. But the IMF — whose involvement is alsocritical for other hardline countries — warned last month that it may not be able to take part ina third Greek bailout if the country’s debts were unsustainable.

虽然正式讨论债务减免将是夏季以后的事情，但此事仍可能成为今日磋商中的一个议题。柏林方面坚持要求IMF首先承诺全面参与新的希腊纾困，然后才会决定是否支持协议。其他立场强硬的成员国也希望IMF参与。但IMF上月警告，如果希腊的债务是不可持续的，它可能无法参与对该国的第三轮纾困。