黄金失去魅力的七个理由

The observation that gold has been adisappointing investment of late should come as nosurprise to anyone in the investment world. The factthat this has occurred in the context ofdevelopments that would normally push gold priceshigher is notable. But the most consequentialhypothesis of all is that gold might be losing itstraditional role in a diversified investment portfolio.

对于有评论称近期的黄金投资令人失望，投资界的任何人应该都不会感到意外。值得注意的一个现象是，与此同时发生的一系列事件通常而言原本会推高金价。但在所有假设中，最重大的假设是黄金或许正失去其在多元化投资组合中的传统地位。

To say gold has underwhelmed investors in the past couple of years is an understatement. Itdid not participate in the surge upwards in nearly all financial asset prices; and it has notprovided protection in the more recent downturn in risk markets. Throughout this period, goldhas not benefited from rock-bottom interest rates that compensated for one of its maindisadvantages as a financial holding — namely, that gold holders do not earn any interest ordividend payments. It has also shown an unusual lack of sensitivity to multiple geopoliticalshocks, Greek-related concerns about the single European currency, and the vast injection ofliquidity by central banks.

说过去几年黄金让投资者感到失望，算是轻描淡写了。当几乎所有金融资产价格都在飙升时，它没有参与;而当风险市场最近出现回落时，它没有提供避险保障。低利率可以弥补黄金作为金融资产的一个主要缺点——黄金持有者不会获得任何利息或股息支付，但在这段时期里，黄金并没有从极低的利率中受益。而且对于地缘政治的多次冲击，希腊危机引起的对欧洲单一货币的担忧，以及各央行大量注入流动性，黄金的表现都异常缺乏敏感性。

The performance of gold has been so dreary as to encourage a growing number of hedgefunds to bet against the asset, notwithstanding its price decline of 8 per cent year to date(and 16 per cent over the past 12 months). Indeed, positioning reports point to large shorts.

黄金的表现实在令人沮丧，于是鼓励了越来越多的对冲基金押注于金价下跌，尽管今年到目前为止金价已下跌8%(过去12个月下跌了16%)。事实上，持仓报告已指向大规模做空。

Several reasons may be advanced to explain these historical anomalies. They suggest thatwhile cyclical factors have played a role, the main drivers are much more structural and secularin nature.

或许可提出几个原因来解释这一历史性的异常现象。从这几个原因看，虽然周期性因素发挥了作用，但主要驱动力远更具有结构性，以及长期性。

First, investors have found more direct ways to express their views about the future,particularly in a world in which central banks have had such an important influence on assetprices — from the explosion in equity exchange traded funds globally to the deepening ofinterest rate and credit products.

首先，投资者已经找到了更直接的方式来表达他们对未来的看法，从交易所交易基金(ETF)出现全球性爆发，到利率和信贷产品深化。在央行对资产价格具有重大影响的当今世界尤其如此。

Second, gold has become a lot less attractive to investors as a result of the lack of meaningfulinflationary pressures. It has also suffered from the more general decline in interest incommodities among institutional and retail investors, due in part to slower global growth.

其次，由于缺乏切实通胀压力，黄金对投资者的吸引力已经小了很多。此外，部分受到全球经济增长放缓的影响，机构和散户投资者对大宗商品的兴趣普遍下降，黄金也受到波及。

Third, gold faces the growing risk of lower demand from central banks, once deemed reliablecore holders. Part of this is driven by the fall in holdings of international reserves by theemerging world, particularly as they try to cope with the impact of lower commodity prices.

第三，黄金还面临着一个越来越大的风险，即央行需求降低，央行曾被认为是可靠的核心持有者。这部分是受到新兴经济体所持国际储备下跌的影响，特别是当它们试图应对大宗商品价格走低时。

Fourth, as historical correlations have broken down, the analytical case for investing in goldhas been increasingly challenged. In particular, prices have failed to respond positively tosome notable geopolitical shocks, eroding the metal’s attraction as a diversifier and riskmitigator.

第四，随着历史关联性断裂，投资黄金的理由日益受到挑战。特别是金价没能对一些显著的地缘政治冲击作出积极响应，削弱了黄金在分散投资和风险缓冲方面的吸引力。

Fifth, the main drivers of most asset prices — liquidity injection by central banks anddeployment of some of the large corporate cash holdings via dividends, buybacks andM&A activity — have not spilled over in any meaningful way to gold; neither directlythrough reallocation of investor funds due to price movements, nor indirectly due toconcerns that all this liquidity would fuel inflation.

第五，大部分资产价格的主要驱动力——央行注入的流动性，以及部分大企业通过分红、回购以及并购对所持现金进行部署——没有对黄金产生任何有意义的影响。既没有由于价格变动影响投资者的资金配置而直接产生影响，也没有因为人们担心这么多流动性会加剧通胀而间接产生影响。

Sixth, the size of the demand response induced by the lower prices — from jewellery and otherphysical uses of gold — is too small to offset the erosion of investor interest.

第六，因为金价降低而增加的珠宝等黄金制品需求太小，不足以抵消投资者兴趣的减弱。

Finally, there is the price level argument. Before its recent lacklustre performance, the pricehad surged (eg, at one stage it had risen more than $1,000 an ounce from its November 2008level of $700). Thus, it is the earlier price move that could be deemed unusual and excessive.

最后一个理由是价格水平。在近期表现低迷之前，金价曾出现飙升(举个例子，金价一度涨至比2008年11月的每盎司700美元高出1000美元)。因此可以认为之前那轮金价变动才是异常和过度的。

Assessing the cyclical versus secular/structural balance of these seven factors, it is hard notto conclude that gold may well be experiencing an erosion in its positioning as a core holdingin diversified institutional and retail investment portfolios. The more this happens, the moreenticing it will be for “fast money to short the metal as a way of inducing even greater sales bydisappointed core holders.

权衡这七个因素的周期性成分与长期结构性成分，很难不得出一个结论：黄金作为机构和散户多样化投资组合中核心资产的这一定位，很可能正在受到削弱。而越是如此，黄金就越能吸引“快钱来做空，从而引诱失望的核心持有者进一步抛售。

This situation is unlikely to change soon but it need not be terminal. A shift would probablyrequire a broader normalisation of financial markets, including a diminution in the direct andindirect role of central banks in determining asset prices and their correlations. Until thathappens, the glittering metal is likely to continue to languish.

这种情况不太可能很快改变，但它未必已成定局。要想出现转变，很可能需要金融市场全面正常化，包括降低央行在决定资产价格及资产价格相关性方面的直接和间接作用。在此之前，黄金这一闪闪发光的金属可能会继续疲软。