英国政府开始出售苏格兰皇家银行股份

Well that took longer than it should have. The UKgovernment has finally started selling down its 78per cent stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. It shouldhave started the process years ago. The shares closed at 338p on Monday. In August 2013they were trading at around 340p, and in the intervening period there have been no dividends.About 31bn of UK taxpayers’ money has been tied up for two years in the bank, with no return.The public would have done better had its money been in a savings account, despite thewoefully-low interest rates on offer. The government, it seems, is not a good allocator ofinvestment capital.

这件事本不该花这么长时间。英国政府终于开始出售其所持的苏格兰皇家银行(RBS) 78%的股份。它本该在数年前就开始这么做。周一，该行股票收于每股338便士。2013年8月，股价约为每股340便士，而且在政府干预期间未派发任何股息。约310亿英镑的英国纳税人资金被锁定在该行股份上长达两年，没有获得任何回报。如果当时把这些钱放在储蓄账户里，公众的收益原本还会高一些，尽管银行提供的利率低得可怜。看起来，英国政府并不擅长配置投资资本。

An earlier sale would have been beneficial all around. Lloyds Banking Groupshares have risen11 per cent since the government started selling down its stake in September 2013. In thesame period, RBS has lost 7 per cent. True, RBS has been in a much weaker position thanLloyds. But the government stake, and the real (and realised) threat of political interventionin the bank has been a drag on the share price. Freed of that risk, the shares might haveperformed much better. And by selling down the stake earlier, the government might haveenabled RBS to raise equity on the capital markets. It has been unable to do that (imagine theoutcry if the government had ended up putting more money into RBS), so it has had to sellassets such as Citizens, its US bank, instead.

更早一些出售原本对各方都有利。劳埃德银行集团(Lloyds Banking Group)股价在英国政府2013年9月开始减持以来已上涨11%。同一时期，苏格兰皇家银行的股价下跌了7%。没错，这与劳埃德相比，苏格兰皇家银行的状况一直疲弱得多。但政府持股以及政治干预该行的切实威胁(这种威胁最终变成了现实)一直在拖累该行股价。如果没有这些风险，苏格兰皇家银行的股价表现可能会好得多。此外，如果英国政府更早一些减持股份，苏格兰皇家银行原本能够在资本市场筹集股本。但该行一直无法这样做(想象一下如果政府最终要向该行注入更多资金所引发的强烈抗议吧)，因此它不得不转而出售资产，例如旗下的美国银行Citizens。

One of the reasons that the government may have been holding back is the risk of being seento sell at a discount to the “in price of 502p. But this argument was always a red herring. Thein price is irrelevant. The government did not invest in the bank in order to make a profit, itinvested in order to avoid the consequences of a collapse. With the threat of a collapsegone, there was little reason to hold on. As any reader of the small print of investmentliterature knows, past prices are no guide to the future. RBS shares may never return to 502p— there is no point assuming that day will eventually arrive. Better for the UK taxpayer to sellout now, and to continue doing so (via quick, cheap institutional placements, rather thanlengthy, expensive public offerings) until the stake has gone altogether.

英国政府一直不启动减持的原因之一或许是，这么做可能会被人认为是在折价出售(相对于每股502便士的买入价格而言)。但这种论点其实一直是在转移人们的注意力。买入价格无关紧要。英国政府投资该行不是为了盈利，而是为了避免其倒闭。当倒闭威胁消失后，就没什么理由再继续持有了。正如任何读过投资宣传材料附属细则的人所熟知的，过去的价格对未来没有指导意义。苏格兰皇家银行的股价可能永远回不到每股502便士，也没有必要假设那一天终将到来。对英国纳税人来说，最好是立刻抛出并持续抛出(通过快速、低成本的机构配售，而非漫长、高成本的公开发售)，直至彻底出清所持股份。