苹果增长故事完好无损

Apple missed analysts’ estimates in its June quartersof 2012 and 2013. Three years ago investors — andcustomers — were waiting nervously for the next iPhone. Two years ago the company’s sales inChina, its most important growth market, fell. Those were things worth worrying about.

在2012年和2013年，苹果(Apple)在截止6月份这个季度的业绩均逊于分析师预期。三年前，投资者——以及消费者——焦急地等待下一代iPhone的面世。两年前，该公司在其最重要的成长型市场中国的销售出现了下滑。这两者都是值得人们操心的事情。

On Tuesday, Apple’s stock suffered a more serious adverse reaction than on either of thosedarker July afternoons, falling more than 7 per cent. Profits and revenues beat consensusestimates. This time the worries are iPhone shipments that were a sliver below expectationsand a slightly weaker-than-expected revenue target for the September quarter.

比起上述两个更为灰暗的7月下午，本周二苹果股票对公司业绩披露作出了更为剧烈的负面反应，股价重挫逾7%。苹果的利润和收入超出了共识预期。这次市场担忧的是，iPhone发货量稍逊于预期，以及该公司公布的第四财季收入目标略低于预期。

Some investor wobble is to be expected. They own a different company than the Apple of twoyears ago, and their expectations are higher. The stock has doubled since then even afterTuesday’s sell-off. Tim Cook is firmly entrenched as chief executive.

投资者出现一定程度的动摇在意料之中。他们现在拥有的苹果公司与两年前不同，而且他们的期望值更高了。即便在周二的暴跌之后，苹果的股价也仍比两年前高了一倍。蒂姆錠克(Tim Cook)的首席执行官地位稳如磐石。

But the growth story is still intact. The iPhone remains a magical success story, with 47.5munits sold in the last three months, up 35 per cent year-on-year. Consumers are willing to paysignificantly more for them, with the average selling price up $99, or 18 per cent, in 12 months.China’s economy may be slowing, but so far it has done nothing to slow customer demand:revenue from the region rose 112 per cent year-on-year to $13.2bn. At that pace, it willoutstrip the Americas as Apple’s biggest market in the next few months.

但苹果的增长故事仍然完好无损。iPhone依然取得了非凡的成功，在过去3个月里售出了4750万部，同比增长35%。消费者愿意花更多的钱购买它们，其平均售价在12个月里上涨了99美元，涨幅为18%。中国经济可能在放缓，但迄今还没有导致消费者需求下降：苹果在大中华区的收入同比增长112%，至132亿美元。按照这种速度，大中华区市场将在几个月后超过美国市场，成为苹果的最大市场。

None of this is to argue that Apple can keep growing at its current pace indefinitely. How thecompany can follow the iPhone 6 and the conquest of China is a legitimate question; the AppleWatch is not yet showing signs of being a world beater. Anxieties about Apple eventuallylosing share to cheaper rivals are similarly legitimate. The point is that nothing in Tuesday’snumbers diminishes the fact that Apple absolutely dominates the most profitable part ofmobile technology today, or the stubborn fact that dominance is hard to maintain.

这一切绝不意味着苹果能够永远保持当前的增长速度。有人想知道苹果如何在iPhone 6和征服中国市场之后延续成功，有这样的疑问是合理的;Apple Watch迄今仍没展示出在世界热卖的迹象。对苹果最终被产品售价较低的竞争对手抢走市场份额的担忧同样是合理的。关键在于，周二发布的财报数据既没有削弱一个事实，即苹果在当前移动科技利润最高的领域占绝对主导地位，也没有削弱另一个铁一般的事实，即维持这一霸主地位并不容易。