紫光收购美光的逻辑

A memo to those who thought volatility in the semiconductor industry was a thing of the past: it is not. This thesis has been popular for some time. But even after years of consolidation, the industry is still prone to boom-and-bust cycles —even if they are a bit gentler now that the number of global D-Ram manufacturers has dropped to three.

认为半导体行业的波动性已成为过去的人听好了：事实并非如此。这一假说已经流行了一段时间。但即使进行了多年的整合，这个行业依然容易受到盛衰周期的影响——就算因为全球范围内动态随机存取存储器(D-Ram)制造商已经减少到三家，这些周期变得温和了一些。

This can make for interesting M&A opportunities.

这可能创造有意思的并购机会。

Tsinghua Unigroup , the Chinese state-backed investment group, is reportedly interested in buying Micron, the US’s biggest memory chipmaker. Micron looks like good value: its stock has fallen 50 per cent this year as sales of memory chips have disappointed. Revenue fell 3 per cent year-on-year in the most recent quarter, with the company expecting a further decline. Slow PC sales are partly to blame — 60 per cent of Micron’s sales are D-Ram chips, which are used in PCs and servers.

据报道，得到中国政府支持的投资集团清华紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)有意收购美国最大内存芯片制造商美光科技(Micron)。美光科技看起来物有所值：由于内存芯片销售情况令人失望，美光科技的股价今年已下跌50%。最近一个季度的营收同比下降3%，该公司预期营收还将进一步下降。个人电脑(PC)销售趋缓是部分原因——美光科技60%的销售额来自用于PC和服务器的D-Ram芯片。

Regardless of whether Unigroup buys Micron, the deal rumours send a strong signal: the semiconductor industry may be near a trough. Seasonal demand for D-Ram will strengthen in the second half of the year, says TrendForce, a consultancy that tracks D-Ram prices. And demand for D-Ram in servers will help compensate for poor PC sales.

不管清华紫光是否要收购美光科技，这些交易传言发出了一个强大信号：半导体行业或许已接近谷底。追踪D-Ram价格的咨询公司TrendForce表示，D-Ram的季节性需求将在今年下半年加强。而对服务器用D-Ram的需求将有助于弥补PC销售的疲弱。

A tie-up between Micron and Unigroup could have some strategic logic. China does not have any big memory chipmakers; state-controlled Unigroup has been investing in this area with purchases of Spreadtrum and RDA, two mobile phone chip designers. And China is Micron’s biggest market, accounting for 40 per cent of sales last year. Moreover, Beijing’s policymakers have been getting tough on foreign tech groups — meaning Chinese ownership could create favourable opportunities.

美光科技和清华紫光结盟可能具有一定的战略逻辑。中国没有任何大型内存芯片制造商;国有控股的紫光一直在该领域进行投资，已收购了两家手机芯片设计公司展讯(Spreadtrum)和锐迪科微电子(RDA Microelectronics)。中国也是美光科技的最大市场，去年占其销售额的40%。此外，北京方面的政策制定者对外国科技公司的态度正日益强硬——这意味着在中资集团旗下可能带来有利机会。