美国后院的债务危机

There is never a perfect time to announce you arevirtually bankrupt. For Puerto Rico, however, this week was a better moment than most. OnSunday, the island’s government released a long-planned economic report written by AnneKrueger, a former World Bank chief economist, which declared that the territory was in fiscalcrisis. As governor Alejandro García Padilla put it, the island’s $72bn debts are now “notpayable.

无论什么时间宣布你事实上已破产都不合适。然而，对波多黎各而言，早宣布或许更好。不久前，该岛政府公布了由世界银行(World Bank)前首席经济学家安妮•克鲁格(Anne Krueger)撰写的一份准备已久的经济报告，报告宣布这块美国领地陷入了财政危机。正如波多黎各总督亚历杭德罗•加西亚•帕迪利亚(AlejandroGarcía Padilla)所言，该岛目前有720亿美元债务“无法偿还。

But instead of sowing widespread fear, debt prices only wobbled. For with Greece in full-blownfinancial crisis, and the Chinese markets tumbling, Puerto Rico’s revelation seems almost asideshow. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to ignore what is happening in Puerto Rico. ForProfessor Krueger’s report highlights two important points. First, Greece is not the only placegrappling with excess debt, poor governance and opaque finances. Second, America, likeEurope, badly needs to become more imaginative — and practical — in dealing with excesspublic sector debt.

然而，结果只是债务价格出现了波动，而没有激起广泛的恐慌。因为希腊爆发全面金融危机、中国股市大跌，波多黎各的境况似乎成了小事一桩。然而，忽略波多黎各事态将犯下错误。克鲁格教授的报告强调了两个重要问题。第一，希腊不是唯一正在努力应对债务过高、治理不善和财政不透明等问题的地方。第二，像欧洲一样，美国在应对公共部门债务过高方面，也急需变得更有想象力、更务实。

For the problem bedevilling Puerto Rico is not simply its $72bn debt pile, but the fact that itlacks any obvious mechanism to restructure it. The island could be in for a choppy time in themunicipal debt markets. Other debt-laden entities, such as the state of Illinois, might soon becaught in the storm.

困扰波多黎各的问题不仅仅在于其720亿美元债务，还在于它缺乏显而易见的债务重组机制。该岛的市政债市场可能开始进入一个动荡阶段。其他债务缠身的实体，比如伊利诺伊州，可能不久后也将卷入风暴。

To understand this, look at Puerto Rico’s numbers. A couple of decades ago, this US territoryof 3.5m people enjoyed a healthy rate of growth, driven by a large American military presenceand tax breaks that attracted mainland businesses. But since then, tax breaks have ended andmilitary budgets have been cut. Output has shrunk by around 10 per cent in real terms since2005.

要理解这一点，不妨看一下波多黎各的数据。二三十年前，这块拥有350万人口的美国领地的经济增长率相当可观，这是因为大规模的美国军事存在，加上税收优惠吸引来了美洲大陆的企业。但后来，税收优惠终止了，军事预算削减了。自2005年以来，按实际值计算，经济产出减少了约10%。

Normally, this might cause creditors to panic. But since global markets have been flush withliquidity, and municipal bonds offer tax breaks for American investors, money has insteadflooded in. That has enabled the government to maintain a generous welfare state, and agovernance culture that is (at best) inefficient and (at worst) rife with cronyism. Meanwhile,the debt-to-output ratio has surged above 100 per cent — or 150 per cent if unfundedliabilities, such as pensions, are included.

通常情况下，这或许会令债权人感到惊慌。但由于全球市场流动性充裕，市政债对美国投资者提供税收优惠，资金反而大规模涌入。这让波多黎各政府得以维持高福利政策，以及一种低效(往好里说)和裙带关系盛行(往坏里说)的治理文化。同时，债务与产出之比猛增至逾100%——如果计入养老金等无资金准备的债务，则为150%。

This pattern is unsustainable. So Prof Krueger — entirely sensibly — proposes two initiatives:Puerto Rico must implement structural reforms, such as cutting welfare payments and labourcosts; but it also needs to restructure the debt to a more sustainable level.

这一模式不可持续。所以克鲁格教授非常合情合理地提出了两条建议：波多黎各必须推行结构性改革，比如削减福利支出和劳动力成本;同时也需要重组债务，使之回到更可持续的水平上。

But, as in Greece, it is unclear whether Puerto Rico’s government has the stomach forausterity. Worse still, the island’s debt structure is staggeringly complex, since the bondshave been issued by numerous different entities, with varying types of guarantees. Thesecreditors show no desire to co-ordinate; instead, they are threatening to sue each other andthe island. Thus the nightmare scenario that now haunts Puerto Rico is not so much that ofGreece but Argentina: years of legal limbo, shut out of the capital markets.

但是，正如在希腊一样，波多黎各政府是否有魄力实行紧缩政策尚不可知。更糟糕的是，该岛的债务结构极其复杂，因为债券是由数不清的不同实体发行的，担保的类型也各不相同。这些债权人没有表现出丝毫相互协调的意愿;相反，他们威胁着要相互起诉，并起诉波多黎各政府。这样一来，目前困扰着波多黎各的噩梦般的场景不是希腊式，而是阿根廷式的：多年的法律空白;被资本市场关在门外。

Is there a solution? In theory, as Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary says, oneresolution would be for the International Monetary Fund to intervene. But it will not, sincePuerto Rico is not a sovereign state. Washington could play an IMF-style role if it chose, sincePuerto Rico, as a territory, is part of the federal system. But the Obama administration hasmade it clear it does not wish to intervene.

是否有解决办法?理论上，正如美国前财长劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)所说的，一个解决方案是由国际货币基金组织(IMF)介入。但IMF不会介入，因为波多黎各并非主权国家。华盛顿方面如果愿意的话，可以扮演类似IMF的角色。因为波多黎各作为一块领地，是美国联邦系统的一部分。但奥巴马政府已明确表示无意介入。

That suggests that the least bad remaining option is to find a third party legal referee tooversee an economic plan that forces the creditors into a compromise. America does have oneexisting model for this: a Chapter 9 framework that offers bankruptcy protection for publicentities.

这表明，剩下的不那么糟糕的选择唯有找到一个第三方法律仲裁人来执行一项强令债权人达成妥协的经济计划。美国在这方面的确有一个现成的模式：为公共实体提供破产保护的美国《破产法》第9章。

This was used to restructure Detroit’s $18bn debt pile. That worked because it focused onrestoring city services, says Kenneth Buckfire, a restructuring expert. Creditor haircuts were theresult of this analysis; they were not imposed to support a failed system.

该章已用于重组底特律的180亿美元债务。重组专家肯尼思•巴克菲尔(Kenneth Buckfire)说，这么做管用，是因为它聚焦于恢复城市服务。这一分析的结果是债权人接受债务减记;他们没有被强制支持一个失败的体系。

But since Puerto Rico is a territory, not a city, it is not allowed to use Chapter 9 without achange in US law. This seems unlikely to occur soon, since parts of the Republican party fearthat letting Puerto Rico use Chapter 9 would prompt other American entities, such as Illinois, todefault too.

但是，既然波多黎各是领地而不是城市，如果不修订美国法律，《破产法》第9章对波多黎各是不适用的。看来美国不太可能很快修订相关法律，因为部分共和党人担心，允许波多黎各适用《破产法》第9章将促使伊利诺伊州等其他美国实体也会违约。

The result, then, is stalemate. Thankfully, the situation is not (yet) bad enough to spark a full-blown crisis; but piles of “unpayable debt have a nasty way of sapping confidence andgrowth. Or to put it another way, the next time that US officials lecture eurozone leaders ontheir failure to sort out Greece, they should glance at their own backyard first; or better still,take resolute action — say, by reforming that Chapter 9 code.

那么，结果就是僵局。幸运的是，局势(还)没有糟糕到引发全面危机的地步;但大量“无法偿还的债务会严重地打击信心、削弱增长。或换言之，下一次美国官员们数落欧元区领导人无力解决希腊危机时，他们应该首先看一下自己的后院;更好的结果是他们采取果断的措施，比如说修改《破产法》第9章。