中国受益于大宗商品价格暴跌

China’s economy would have expanded at less than6 per cent in the first quarter if not for the collapsein global commodity prices, according to datareviewed by the Financial Times, raising concernsabout the government’s ability to hit its 7 per centgrowth target for the full year.

英国《金融时报》对相关数据进行分析发现，若不是全球大宗商品价格暴跌，中国经济在第一季度的扩张速度将不到6%。这令人担忧政府实现7%全年增长目标的能力。

At its first-quarter briefing in April, the NationalBureau of Statistics reported that gross domesticproduct had increased 7 per cent but did not provide a breakdown of the growth figure into itsthree components — consumption, investment and net exports.

中国国家统计局(NBS)在4月发布的第一季度简报中，报告国内生产总值(GDP)增加了7%，但并未提供整体增长数字的三个组成部分的数据：消费、投资和净出口。

The Chinese government has been trying to boost consumption while weaning the economy offits traditional reliance on credit-fuelled investment. The net export figure, which boostsgrowth when China enjoys an overall surplus with its trading partners, has traditionally had amuch more modest impact on output.

中国政府近年一直试图提振消费，同时推动经济摆脱传统上对信贷助燃投资的依赖。净出口数字在中国对贸易伙伴有整体顺差的情况下会提振增长数字，传统上，它对产出的影响较小。

According to a breakdown of China’s first-quarter GDP figure that has only recently becomeavailable, net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points of the country’s seven per centgrowth. By comparison, net exports accounted for just 0.1 percentage points of the 7.4 percent growth figure reported for 2014 — China’s slowest annual rate of expansion in a quartercentury.

根据最近才可获得的中国第一季度GDP分类数据，净出口为中国7%的增长贡献了1.3个百分点。相比之下，净出口在2014年7.4%(中国25年来最慢的年度扩张速度)的增长数字中只占0.1个百分点。

Consumption and investment, meanwhile, accounted for 4.5 and 1.2 percentage points of first-quarter growth respectively. Without the 1.3 percentage point boost from net exports, China’sfirst-quarter growth figure would have been much lower at about 5.7 per cent.

与此同时，消费和投资分别占第一季度经济增长的4.5和1.2个百分点。若没有来自净出口的1.3个百分点的提振，中国第一季度增长数字将低得多，大约为5.7%。

“It’s quite worrisome, said Bo Zhuang, China economist at consultancy Trusted Sources. “That’s why the government’s policies have been much more aggressive [over recentmonths].

“这相当令人担忧，咨询公司信源(Trusted Sources)中国经济学家庄波表示。“这就是为什么(最近几个月)政府的政策变得更加积极的原因。

The Chinese government, which will release its second-quarter GDP estimate next week, hascut interest rates four times since November in a bid to keep growth steady at about 7 percent.

中国政府自去年11月以来已四次降息，力求将增长稳定在7%左右。中国将于下周公布第二季度GDP估算数字。

Analysts believe that the latest rate cut, announced on June 27, was also aimed at arresting asharp sell-off on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which have lost about 30 percent of their value since hitting seven-year highs last month.

分析师们相信，6月27日宣布的最新降息措施，也是为了遏止上海和深圳证交所的大幅下跌。自上月触及七年高点以来，沪深股市已蒸发大约30%的价值。

Chinese authorities have also instructed banks to continue to lend to infrastructure projectseven if they might be insolvent and eased standards for local government bond issues — partof a larger plan to roll-over some of the Rmb22tn in debt accumulated by local governmentfinance vehicles.

中国当局还指示银行继续贷款给基础设施项目，即使项目可能处于资不抵债的状态，同时放宽了地方政府发行债券的标准(这是一项整体计划的一环，目的是滚转地方政府融资工具积累的22万亿元人民币债务中的一部分)。

“There’s an awful lot of concern about the first-quarter GDP number, added anothereconomist, who asked not to be named. NBS said the bureau was not able to commentimmediately on the more detailed first-quarter growth figures.

“各方对于第一季度GDP数字有很多担忧，不愿透露姓名的另一位经济学家补充说。国家统计局表示，该局无法马上就更详细的第一季度增长数据发表评论。

Adding to concerns about China’s economic outlook, the net export figure that provided suchan important boost to first-quarter growth was a bit of a fluke.

令人对中国经济前景更加担忧的是，为第一季度经济增长提供如此重要提振的净出口数字来得有点侥幸。

First-quarter exports were up only a modest 4.9 per cent on the same period last year, toRmb3.15tn ($500bn). But the collapse in global commodity prices meant that the value ofChina’s imports over the first three months of the year fell 17 per cent to Rmb2.39tn, resultingin a surplus of Rmb760bn.

第一季度出口同比增幅并不大，为4.9%，达到3.15万亿元人民币(合5000亿美元)。但是，全球大宗商品价格暴跌意味着，中国在今年前三个月的进口总值同比下降17%，至2.39万亿元人民币，造成7600亿元人民币的贸易顺差。

Viewed another way, net exports accounted for 18.5 per cent of first quarter economic outputcompared with just 1.3 per cent last year. The contribution to growth from investment,meanwhile, fell to just 17.4 per cent in the first quarter from 48.5 per cent in 2014.

从另一个角度看，净出口占到第一季度经济产出的18.5%，而去年同期只有1.3%。与此同时，今年首季投资对经济产出的贡献为17.4%，远低于2014年首季的48.5%。