关于希腊债务危机你必须要了解的六个问题

Greece, the weak link in the eurozone, is inchingcloser to defaulting on its debt. The country hasbeen in a long standoff with its European creditorson the terms of a multibillion-dollar bailout. If thecountry goes bankrupt or decides to leave the 19-nation eurozone, the situation could createinstability in the region and reverberate around theglobe.

希腊是欧元区的薄弱环节，它正在慢慢走向债务违约的深渊。在涉及千亿美元的救助条款上，该国与其欧洲债权人处于长期对峙状态。如果希腊破产，或是决定离开19个国家组成的欧元区，可能会破坏该地区的稳定，并且波及全球。

what is the latest?

最新进展如何?

The European Central Bank said on Sunday that it would not expand the emergency loanprogram that has been propping up Greek banks in recent weeks. But at the same time, thebank did not cut off support entirely, giving the Greek government some extra flexibility in thecoming days.

欧洲央行(European Central Bank)周日表示，它不会扩大最近几周来为希腊银行业提供支持的紧急贷款计划。但与此同时，欧洲央行并未完全切断援手，所以会在未来数日里为希腊政府提供一些额外的灵活性。

Meanwhile in Greece, the Parliament approved a request from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras for apublic referendum on Greece’s debt negotiations, to be held next Sunday. Mr. Tsipras said hewas calling the referendum because Greece’s creditors — the International Monetary Fund, theEuropean Central Bank and the eurozone countries — had refused to negotiate in good faithand present a fair compromise.

另一方面，希腊议会批准了总理亚历克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)的请求，同意下周日就本国的债务谈判举行全民公投。齐普拉斯表示，他之所以诉诸公投，是因为希腊的债权人——国际货币基金组织(IMF)、欧洲央行和欧元区其他国家——拒绝进行真诚的谈判，不愿做出适当的妥协。

The approval came after eurozone finance ministers rejected Greece’s request to extend itsexisting bailout program past a deadline this Tuesday.

希腊要求将现有的救助计划延长到本周二的限期之后，但遭到了欧元区各国财长的拒绝。随后，希腊议会批准进行全民公投。

How did Greece get to this point?

希腊如何沦落到如今的境地?

Greece became the epicenter of Europe’s debt crisis after Wall Street imploded in 2008. Withglobal financial markets still reeling, Greece announced in October 2009 that it had beenunderstating its deficit figures for years, raising alarms about the soundness of Greek finances.

2008年华尔街崩盘之后，希腊成为了欧州债务危机的震中。2009年10月，在全球金融市场尚未站稳之际，希腊宣布它多年来一直低报了赤字数据，引发了人们对希腊财政状况的警惕。

Suddenly, Greece was shut out from borrowing in the financial markets. By the spring of 2010,it was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis.

突然之间，希腊被金融市场拒之门外，无法借到资金。到2010年春，该国日益走向破产，新的金融危机眼看可能会就此引爆。

To avert calamity, the so-called troika — the I.M.F., the European Central Bank and theEuropean Commission — issued the first of two international bailouts for Greece, which wouldeventually total more than 240 billion euros, or about $264 billion at today’s exchange rates.

为了避免这样的灾难，国际货币基金组织、欧洲央行和欧盟委员会这“三驾马车为希腊提供了两轮国际救助计划中的第一轮。救助总额最后达到了2400亿欧元，按目前汇率计算相当于1.66万亿元人民币。

The bailouts came with conditions. Lenders imposed harsh austerity terms, requiring deepbudget cuts and steep tax increases. They also required Greece to overhaul its economy bystreamlining the government, ending tax evasion and making Greece an easier place to dobusiness.

救助附带有条件。出借方强制要求希腊实施严苛的紧缩政策，而这需要大幅削减预算并增加税收。他们还要求希腊全面改革经济体制，包括精简政府、打击逃税现象，以及改善商业环境。

If Greece has received billions in bailouts, why is there still a crisis?

既然希腊已经获得了数千亿欧元的援助，为什么危机仍然在持续?

The money was supposed to buy Greece time to stabilize its finances and quell market fearsthat the euro union itself could break up. While it has helped, Greece’s economic problemshaven’t gone away. The economy has shrunk by a quarter in five years, and unemployment isabove 25 percent.

这笔钱本来是要给希腊争取一些时间，以稳定其财政状况，同时平息市场对欧元区本身可能分崩离析的担忧情绪。虽然它的确有所帮助，但希腊的经济问题并没有得到解决。该国经济在五年内缩水了四分之一，目前的失业率超过25%。

The bailout money mainly goes toward paying off Greece’s international loans, rather thanmaking its way into the economy. And the government still has a staggering debt load that itcannot begin to pay down unless a recovery takes hold.

救助资金主要用来还清希腊的国际借款，而不是注入了该国的经济。希腊政府至今仍背负着高得惊人的债务负担。除非经济真正有了起色，否则它无法开始偿还。

Many economists, and many Greeks, blame the austerity measures for much of the country’scontinuing problems. The leftist Syriza party rode to power this year promising to renegotiatethe bailout; Mr. Tsipras said that austerity had created a “humanitarian crisis in Greece.

很多经济学家以及不少希腊人批评紧缩政策，认为它是导致该国问题一直无法缓解的一大原因。今年成为执政党的左翼激进联盟(Syriza)发誓要重新谈判救助协议;齐普拉斯本人则宣称，紧缩政策在希腊导致了“人道主义危机。

But the country’s exasperated creditors, especially Germany, blame Athens for failing toconduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout. They don’t want to change therules for Greece.

然而，愤怒的债权方，尤其是德国，指责雅典未能按照救助协议的要求开展经济改革。他们不愿为希腊破例。

As the debate rages, the only thing everyone agrees on is that Greece is yet again running outof money — and fast.

这场辩论进行得如火如荼，各方唯一达成共识的一点是：希腊正在再次耗尽资金，而且速度惊人。

Why do Greece and Europe disagree?

希腊和欧盟的分歧何在?

With Greece nearly bankrupt, the government struck a deal with European officials on Feb. 20to extend the bailout program for at least four months and give Athens 7 billion in funds, if Mr.Tsipras made structural changes. But creditors say the plans Greece has submitted fall short,and they accuse Mr. Tsipras of trying to roll back the austerity measures unilaterally.

随着希腊濒临破产边缘，政府于今年2月20日与欧洲官员达成协议：如果齐普拉斯做出结构性变革，他们会将救助计划延长至少四个月，并为雅典提供70亿欧元的资金。不过，债权人如今表示希腊提交的方案并没有达到标准，并且指责齐普拉斯试图单方面收回紧缩政策。

Greece needs a deal to keep paying its creditors and to finance government operations. Athensseems to be betting that its creditors will want to reach a compromise to avoid the hugeunknowns that could arise if Greece defaults or possibly leaves the euro.

希腊需要达成一项协议来继续偿还欠债权人的款项，并为政府运行提供资金。雅典似乎押下赌注，认为债权人会希望达成妥协，以避免可怕的未知数。如果希腊违约，或者可能离开欧元区，就会浮现这种不确定性。

If things are so bad, shouldn’t Greece just leave the eurozone?

如果情况已经如此糟糕，何不让希腊就此离开欧元区?

At the height of the debt crisis a few years ago, many experts worried that Greece’s problemswould spill over into the rest of the world. If Greece defaulted on its debt and exited theeurozone, it could create global financial shocks bigger than the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

几年前希腊债务危机达到顶峰时，很多专家担心该国的问题会波及世界其他地方。如果希腊出现债务违约并退出欧元区，会给国际金融领域带来比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产更大的冲击。

Some people argue that if Greece were to leave the currency union now, it wouldn’t be such acatastrophe. Europe has put up safeguards to limit the financial contagion, in an effort tokeep the problems from spreading to other countries. Greece, just a tiny part of the eurozoneeconomy, could regain financial autonomy with its own economy, these people contend —and the eurozone would actually be better off without a country that seems to constantly needits neighbors’ support.

一些人提出，假如希腊现在离开这个货币联盟，将不会造成多大的灾难。欧洲已经筑起屏障来限制金融危机的蔓延，希望防止问题扩展至其他国家。这些人认为，希腊只是欧元区经济的一小部分，离开后可以恢复对本国经济的财政自主权，而且少了这个似乎总是需要邻国帮助的成员，欧元区实际上会过得更好。

Others say that’s too simplistic a view. Despite the frustration of endless negotiations,European political leaders see a united Europe as an imperative. At the same time, they stillhaven’t fixed some of the biggest shortcomings of the eurozone’s structure by creating a morefederal-style system of transferring money as needed among members — the way the UnitedStates does among its various states. They also worry that if Greece were to default and leavethe eurozone, it could ignite turmoil in the financial markets that might stall the buddingrecovery in Europe and impede the United States’ rebound.

其他一些人则表示，这是一个过于简单的观点。尽管对无尽的谈判感到失望，欧盟的政治领导人认为必须保持欧洲的统一。与此同时，他们尚未根据成员国的需要创立一个更接近联邦制的转账系统——就像美国在各州之间建立的系统一样——从而改进欧元区构架中最严重的一些不足之处。他们还担心，如果希腊债务违约并退出欧元区，会导致金融市场剧烈震荡，或许会让欧洲刚刚开始的复苏偃旗息鼓，并阻碍美国经济的回升。

What happens next?

接下来还会发生什么?

That’s the billion-euro question.

这是事关天文数字的问题。

Mr. Tsipras has said he doesn’t want to take Greece out of the euro currency union. ChancellorAngela Merkel of Germany, Europe’s paymaster, says the eurozone must stay together — butnot at any cost.

齐普拉斯一直表示，他不想让希腊退出欧元区。欧洲的金主德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)则称，欧元区必须保持统一，但不应不惜一切代价。

Right now, Greece must work out a deal to get some of the 7 billion to meet looming debtpayments. It also has billions more in additional payments coming due later this year to theI.M.F. and the European Central Bank. As a result, Greece might need to try securing yetanother multibillion-euro bailout package — its third since 2010.

眼下，希腊必须达成一项协议，得到70亿欧元中的至少部分资金，以完成迫在眉睫的债务支付。希腊还要偿付在今年晚些时候到期的欠国际货币基金组织和欧洲央行的几十亿欧元的债务。因此，希腊可能需要努力获得又一轮数字巨大的救援计划——自2010年以来的第三轮。

Next week’s referendum could test whether Greek citizens want to stay in the eurozone. Newelections could also be held if Greece’s financial situation worsens. Or Greece could test thewillingness of Russia or China to help should talks with Europe falter.

下周举行的全民公投可以检验希腊民众是否想要留在欧元区。倘若希腊的财政状况进一步恶化，该国也可能会举行新的选举。或者， 如果与欧洲的谈判破裂，希腊可以试探俄罗斯或中国是否愿意提供帮助。

The heavy betting is that Greece and Europe will find a way to muddle through the mess yetagain — even if many people might be quietly drawing up emergency plans.

最多人押宝的可能性是，希腊和欧洲会找到再次度过困境的办法——即便很多人可能在默默制订应急计划。