房地产投资放缓拖累中国经济增长

HONG KONG — Renhe Commercial appears to have awell-fortified business model: It builds air raidshelters across China for the government, outfittingthem as underground shopping malls for use duringpeacetime.

香港——人和商业似乎拥有一种坚不可摧的商业模式：这家公司在中国各地为政府建造防空设施，并将其打造为供和平时期使用的地下商城。

But even that strategy has not been enough toprotect the company from the fallout from China’sproperty market slump.

然而，就连这种策略都不足以使公司免受中国房地产市场低迷带来的影响。

Like many Chinese developers, Renhe is struggling with financial losses and debt, and it hasbeen looking for other sources of income. This week, it said it was buying a collection offarmers’ markets for $800 million, even after sharply reining in spending on new propertyprojects.

与中国许多开发商一样，人和公司正在财务损失和债务问题上苦苦挣扎，一直在寻找其他收入来源。就在大力控制新地产项目支出后，人和公司本周表示将以65亿港元(约合49.5亿元人民币)的价格收购多家农产品市场。

The company’s problems highlight a broader challenge that the property market poses toChina’s economic growth. Despite recent signs that housing prices are stabilizing, a backlog ofunsold homes and unleased shops means that builders simply are not doing much building.

这家公司的问题突显了楼市给中国经济增长带来的总体挑战。尽管最近有迹象表明房价企稳，但待售房屋和待租商铺的积压意味着，地产商目前并没有进行多少建造活动。

Data released Thursday showed that investment in residential and commercial real estatedevelopment rose 5.1 percent in May compared with a year earlier, its slowest pace since early2009. Land purchases by developers continued a sharp decline, falling 31 percent by area and25.8 percent by value last month. Housing starts fell 16 percent, measured by floor area.

周四公布的数据显示，今年5月，针对住宅与商业地产开发项目的投资同比增长5.1%。这是自2009年初以来的最低增速。开发商的土地收购活动锐减，上个月的收购面积缩小31%，总价下降25.8%。以建筑面积来看，新房开工量减少16%。

“Real estate developers are speeding up destocking but not starting new projects, said HaibinZhu, the chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.

摩根大通(JP Morgan)驻香港的首席中国经济师朱海斌表示，“房地产开发商正在加速减少房屋存量，而不是开启新的项目。

“The implications are also twofold, Mr. Zhu said. “The rebound in transactions and stabilizedhouse prices suggest that financial risk related to the housing market is mitigated, but weakreal estate investment suggests that the drag on economic growth continues.

“影响也是双重的，朱海斌说。“交易量反弹、房价企稳的现象说明，与楼市有关的金融风险有所缓解，但疲软的房地产投资表明，对经济增长的拖累仍在继续。

China’s property market has an outsize effect on its economy, which expanded last year at theslowest pace in 24 years. By some economists’ estimates, real estate and related industriesaccount for more than 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product. The sector directlyaffects industries as diverse as construction companies, steel and cement plants, banks andproperty brokerages.

中国经济去年的增速降至24年以来的最低水平，而房地产市场对中国经济有着巨大影响。根据一些经济学家的估算，房地产及相关产业在中国国内生产总值中占比逾20%。房地产行业直接影响包括建筑公司、钢铁厂、水泥厂、银行和房地产经纪公司在内的众多领域。

There are increasing signs that prices and sales volumes are stabilizing. The property marketappears to be responding to recent moves by China’s central bank to lower interest rates andfree banks to lend more. Policy makers in recent months have also unwound several restrictionson mortgages and purchases of second homes that had been introduced years earlier toprevent the market from overheating.

越来越多的迹象表明，中国的房价和房屋销售量企稳。在央行最近采取降低利率并允许银行投放更多贷款的举措后，房地产市场似乎有了起色。决策部门近几个月来还解除了针对房贷及购买二套房的几项限制。中国在几年前推出了这些限制政策，以防止市场过热。

Last week, Moody’s Investors Service upgraded its outlook for China’s property sector,forecasting modest housing sales growth of up to 5 percent in the next 12 months, comparedwith a decline of 7.8 percent in 2014.

上周，穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)上调了对中国房地产行业的展望，预计中国的房屋销售额在未来12个月中会出现5%的适度增长。相比之下，2014年的房产销售额下降了7.8%。

That is good news for developers and for banks that issue mortgages. But it does not mean aflurry of new construction will follow. China’s huge oversupply of unsold homes — mostlyoutside the biggest cities — and builders’ large holdings of undeveloped land mean that thepotential lift from rising housing prices for the broader economy will be muted.

对于开发商和发放抵押贷款的银行来说，这是个好消息。不过，它并不意味着新的建设项目会接踵而至。中国的待售房屋大大过剩——大多在大城市以外的地方——地产商也握有大量未开发土地。这意味着，房价上升提振宏观经济的可能性不大。

For example, China’s least-developed cities, so-called Tier 3 and 4 localities, have nearly threeyears’ worth of sales in unsold homes on the market, according to a recent paper published bythe International Monetary Fund.

例如，国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)最近发布的一篇文章显示，在中国开发程度最低的城市，即所谓的三四线城市，市场上的待售房屋存量相当于将近三年的销售量。

“Overall, developers are more cautious in buying land, given the expectation of slower growthgoing forward, said Simon Wong, a vice president at Moody’s, a credit rating agency. “Themajority of rated developers have a land inventory of about three to five years, and that’squite ample.

“总体来看，鉴于增速放缓的前景，开发商在购买土地的问题上越来越谨慎，信用评级机构穆迪的副总裁王智健(Simon Wong)说。“大多数接受评级的开发商拥有大约三到五年的土地存量，这个量相当大。

The effects of lackluster activity in the property sector can be seen across the economy. OnTuesday, economists at China’s central bank lowered their economic growth target for the yearto 7 percent, from 7.1 percent, citing the drag from the housing market as a major factor.

房地产行业的低迷产生的影响，可以在各个经济部门中感受到。周二，中国央行的经济学家把今年的经济增长目标从7.1%下调至7%，并称房地产市场的拖累是其中的一个主要因素。

Data released Monday showed that imports continue to decline, falling 18.1 percent in Mayfrom the level of a year earlier. Officials have blamed weak global commodity prices, butChina’s imports of key materials like iron ore and copper have also started falling in volumeterms. That is a sign of weak domestic demand, as diminished construction activity meansdecreased demand for steel girders and copper wiring, for example.

周一发布的数据显示，中国的进口额还在下滑，5月的数据同比下降18.1%。官方将原因归咎于国际大宗商品价格走低，但是从体量来看，中国对铁矿石和铜等关键原材料的进口也开始下跌。这表明，随着建筑活动减少，对钢梁和铜线等商品的需求量也在降低，使得国内需求不振。

That has left Chinese developers scrambling to find new moneymakers.

在这种情况下，中国开发商不得不争相寻找能盈利的新业务。

Evergrande Real Estate Group, a heavily indebted developer based in the southern city ofGuangzhou, has recently branched into new businesses, including bottled mineral water, grainand edible oils and a cosmetic surgery clinic. Dalian Wanda, a mall developer, announcedplans last year to go into e-commerce.

总部设在华南城市广州的恒大地产集团负债严重，它近期开拓了不少新的业务领域，其中包括瓶装矿泉水、谷物、食用油和美容整形医院。开发商场项目的大连万达集团去年宣布将进军电子商务领域。

For Renhe, the business of converting bomb shelters into shopping malls has turned costly andunprofitable. The company has accumulated debt, reporting net losses and negative cashflow for the past several years.

对于人和而言，把防空设施改造为商场的业务逐渐变得成本高昂、无利可图。过去几年，公司债务不断累积，公告中出现了净亏损和负现金流。

With only about 900 million renminbi, or about $150 million, in cash on hand, Renhe will have tofind a way to repay or refinance a $1 billion bond it sold to international investors, which comesdue for repayment in nine months.

人和手中的现金只有大概9亿元人民币。公司出售给国际投资者的一笔10亿美元(约合62亿元人民币)的债券将于九个月后到期，公司必须找到偿还办法，或者进行再融资。

The company’s “cash position has declined quite significantly, said Mr. Wong of Moody’s. “Ithink Renhe’s business model is quite difficult to sustain.

人和公司的“现金状况出现了相当严重的恶化，穆迪的王智健说。“我认为人和的商业模式难以维系下去。

Renhe’s deal for eight farmers’ markets in six cities across China is designed to generateminimum annual profit from rents of 625 million Hong Kong dollars, or about $80 million. But itcomes with a twist. Renhe is buying the markets from one of its directors, who is also the wifeof the company’s chairman and controlling shareholder.

人和一共买下了中国六座城市的八个农产品市场，意图通过收取租金每年获得至少6.25亿港元的利润。然而，这桩收购还有一个微妙之处。人和是从公司的一名董事手中收购这些市场的，而此人还是公司董事长和控股股东的妻子。

It will settle most of the purchase price by issuing new shares — but those shares will beissued at a 50 percent discount to where the stock traded before the deal was announced.

人和将通过发行新股的方式来支付大部分的收购价——不过，这些新股将以收购消息公布前的股市交易价的一半发行。

The developer said it saw the potential for more than just rental yields. The company wants tocreate an agricultural e-commerce business “by bringing together traders through an electronictrading platform and network to create virtual market places.

人和表示，除租金以外，公司认为这些市场还存在其他潜力。人和希望“通过电子交易平台和网络来聚集农贸交易人员，从中创建出虚拟市场，从而打造自身的农业电商业务。