新冠疫情将使美国GDP未来十年缩水近8万亿美元

肆虐全球的新冠肺炎疫情危机已经严重削弱了美国经济。美国国会预算办公室发布的最新预测显示，由于新冠疫情引发经济急剧萎缩，未来10年美国GDP将因此缩水近8万亿美元。

People who lost their jobs wait in line to file for unemployment benefits at Arkansas Workforce Center in Fort Smith, Arkansas, US, April 6, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]

Fallout from the coronavirus pandemic will shrink the size of the US economy by roughly $8 trillion over the next decade, according to new projections released by the Congressional Budget Office on Monday.

美国国会预算办公室本周一 In a letter to US lawmakers, the CBO said the US economy will grow by $7.9 trillion less from 2020 to 2030 than it had projected in January. That amounts to a 3 percent decline in US gross domestic product compared to its initial estimate.

美国国会预算办公室在写给美国议员的信中表示，从2020年到2030年，美国经济产出将较1月份时的预期减少7.9万亿美元。这相当于美国国内生产总值较最初估计下降3%。

The stark illustration of the pandemic’s potential economic impact comes one week after White House officials confirmed they would not release their own updated projections this summer in their annual “mid-session” budget review.

在美国国会预算办公室公布新冠肺炎疫情对经济的潜在影响一周前，白宫官员证实，他们不会在今年夏天的年度中期预算审查中公布对美国经济的最新预测。

The pandemic will hamper US economic growth by reducing the amount of consumer spending and closing numerous businesses, the CBO said. Part of the impact will be mitigated by the more than $2 trillion the federal government has already approved in emergency spending for households and businesses.

美国国会预算办公室表示，疫情将减少消费者支出，并导致大量企业倒闭，从而阻碍美国经济增长。联邦政府已经批准为家庭和企业提供超过2万亿美元的紧急支出，这将部分缓解危机的影响。

“Business closures and social distancing measures are expected to curtail consumer spending, while the recent drop in energy prices is projected to severely reduce US investment in the energy sector,” said Phillip L. Swagel, the CBO director and former economic expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank.

美国国会预算办公室主任、曾在中右翼智库美国企业研究所任职的经济专家菲利普·L-史威格说：“企业倒闭和社交隔离措施预计将削减消费者支出，而近期能源价格下跌将大量减少美国在能源领域的投资。”

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Medical workers take in patients outside a special coronavirus area at Maimonides Medical Center in New York City on May 27, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]

The pandemic’s impact on the US economy has been swift. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5 percent in February to 14.7 percent in April. Tax revenue plummeted, spending skyrocketed, and the economy quickly contracted after years of growth.

新冠疫情使美国经济迅速受到影响。失业率从2月份的3.5%上升到4月份的14.7%。税收收入锐减，支出激增，经济在多年增长后迅速萎缩。

The CBO report was requested by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who serves on the Senate Budget Committee. The CBO had previously released forecasts for 2020 and 2021.

美国国会预算办公室的报告是应参议院少数党领袖查尔斯·E-舒默和参议院预算委员会成员、联邦参议员伯尼·桑德斯的要求做出的。美国国会预算办公室此前曾发布2020年和2021年的预测。

“Slower growth means higher unemployment, lower wages, and less income for people. What we are looking at is another decade of that,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork.

Upwork的首席经济学家亚当·奥兹梅克说：“经济增长放缓意味着更高的失业率、更低的工资和更少的收入。未来10年很可能会这样。”

The White House said last week it would not be releasing its updated economic projections, such as GDP and unemployment statistics, because of the high level of volatility in the US economy. CBO and other economic analysts have been able to do so.

白宫上周表示，由于美国经济的高度波动性，不会发布国内生产总值和失业统计等最新经济预测。而美国国会预算办公室和其他经济分析人士已经做出了预测。

The CBO’s letter says while “real” GDP will fall by about $8 trillion, “nominal” GDP will fall by $16 trillion over the next 10 years. That measure is viewed by economists as less significant because it does not include the impact of inflation.

美国国会预算办公室在信中说，在未来10年，“实际”国内生产总值将下降大约8万亿美元，“名义”国内生产总值将下降16万亿美元。经济学家认为这一指标不太重要，因为它不包括通货膨胀的影响。

Lawmakers are debating whether to renew several federal aid programs set to expire, including a sizable increase in unemployment benefits that will lapse at the end of July. Congressional Democrats seized on the CBO’s findings to argue additional emergency aid is urgently needed.

国会议员们正在讨论是否延长几个即将到期的联邦援助项目，其中包括将在7月底到期的大幅度增加失业救济。国会民主党人利用国会预算办公室的调查结果争辩称，现在迫切需要更多的紧急援助。

“In order to avoid the risk of another Great Depression, the Senate must act with a fierce sense of urgency to make sure that everyone in America has the income they need to feed their families and put a roof over their heads,” Schumer said in a statement. “The American people cannot afford to wait another month for the Senate to pass legislation. They need our help now.”

舒默在一份声明中说：“为了避免另一场大萧条的风险，参议院必须以强烈的紧迫感采取行动，确保每个美国人都有足够的收入来养家糊口，不至于无家可归。美国人民等不了参议院用一个月时间通过法案了，他们现在急需我们的帮助。”