2017年奥斯卡：最佳演员们谁最惴惴不安？

Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, Lupita Nyong’o and Jared Leto are the front-runners in the acting categories. Which one is most vulnerable?

Thompson: The best actor race is so close that Chiwetel Ejiofor, Leonardo DiCaprio or Bruce Dern could edge out McConaughey. It's a numbers game. Who expected Tom Hanks to lose a nomination for the best performance of his career in "Captain Phillips"?

Karger: Definitely Lupita. That BAFTA win for Jennifer Lawrence threw everything off-kilter.

O'Neil: McConaughey and Nyong'o are both vulnerable. Leo may emerge as the "Wolf" of Oscar night and Lawrence could pounce to grab a new Oscar one year after snagging her first. Yes, we have frontrunners in these races, but the Oscars never go according to script.

Sharkey: A few weeks ago I would have said all the acting categories were a lock. But in the wake of the Woody Allen/Dylan Farrow firestorm, Blanchett might be at risk. The decision should rest on her performance alone, which is without question the best in that category. But Oscar has a bad habit of making things personal, and not in a good way.

Whipp: That should be the winning quartet, but Nyong'o has the most reason to be nervous. Jennifer Lawrence received a huge ovation when her name appeared during the closing credits at the Academy screening of "Hustle." People adore her. With four acting nominations, "Hustle" owns a lot of love among voters in that huge bloc and it wouldn't be shocking if one of the cast members wins. Lawrence has the best chance.

Did composer Bruce Broughton, disqualified for original song, deserve to have his nomination taken away?

Sharkey: I was shocked when the academy took Broughton's original song nomination away. Given that the entire awards season now plays out like an extreme cage fighting match, what Broughton did seems like a minor infraction at best. And is he really the only one to cross lines during this entire race?

O'Neil: The Oscars didn't disqualify "The Hurt Locker" or its producer Nicolas Chartier when he committed the same offense as Broughton. Chartier had his ceremony tickets pulled, that's all. The academy should've doled out the same penalty to Broughton.

Whipp: Disqualifying Broughton was harsh, but he clearly violated the rules. Would the song have been nominated had he not sent the emails? Probably not.

Thompson: Yes. He should not have used his privileged position as a former academy governor and music branch executive committee member to email his fellow voters to please pay attention to his song, which otherwise would have remained on a long list of also-rans.

What Oscar-night win would bring the biggest smile to your face?

Breznican: June Squibb for "Nebraska." I love that woman, and she's an 80-something dynamo. A true testament to what a lifetime of steady good work can build toward — an Oscar nomination. How nice if it were a win. But, even without the trophy, she has won my heart. Aww…

Thompson: Chiwetel Ejiofor for best actor. That long closeup at the end of "12 Years a Slave" should get him that Oscar. Yet he's up against the strongest set of performances in years -- all are deserving. If Matthew McConaughey wins, it will be because he turned his career around and showed us what he could do -- in a string of indie films as well as the currently running "True Detective." It's the gorgeous-movie-star-turned-serious-thespian-award that went to Halle Berry and Charlize Theron.

Karger: This is obscure, but I’m really pulling for "The Lady in Number 6" for best documentary short. And now that the film’s inspirational subject, Alice Herz-Sommer, has passed away, a win would be a lovely tribute.

O'Neil: I will smile and cheer if "Philomena" -- my dearly beloved film of the year -- wins something. Frankly, it deserves to win best picture, but I'll settle for screenplay or (dare I suggest it?) lead actress.

Sharkey: A "Gravity" best picture win would bring a smile. For all the well-executed significance of "12 Years a Slave," for all the fun of "American Hustle's" con, watching all the contenders again in recent days, I came away loving "Gravity" the most.

Whipp: The academy rarely honors world-class directors, and when it does, it's often for films that aren't their best work. So I will relish watching Alfonso Cuaron winning for "Gravity."

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凯特·布兰切特(Cate Blanchett)、马修·麦康纳(Matthew McConaughey)、露皮塔·尼永奥(Lupita Nyong'o)、杰瑞德·莱托(Jared Leto)是表演类奖项的佼佼者。他们之中谁的实力最弱？

汤普森：最佳演员竞赛演员们旗鼓相当，切瓦特·埃加福特(Chiwetel Ejiofor)、莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥(Leonardo DiCaprio)和布鲁斯·邓恩(Bruce Dern)可能险胜麦康纳。这就是个数字游戏。谁能想到汤姆·汉克斯(Tom Hanks)在《菲利普船长》中的表演没能赢得最佳男演员提名呢？

卡尔格：当然是露皮塔。詹妮弗·劳伦斯赢了英国电影电视艺术学院奖后，一切都一目了然了。

奥尼尔：麦康纳和尼永奥实力都不强。小李子可能在颁奖之夜崛起，像匹“奥斯卡之狼”；而劳伦斯可能突袭又一个奥斯卡奖，去年她第一次夺奖。是的，竞赛中总有佼佼者，但是奥斯卡绝不是按照剧本走的。

萨基：几周前我就说过所有的表演奖项都定了，但是随后伍迪·艾伦(Woody Allen)和迪莲·法罗(Dylan Farrow)丑闻爆发，布兰切特可能就危险了。奥斯卡应该仅就其表演评价，当然她的表演无疑是表演组中最好的。不过奥斯卡专家组有个坏习惯——看人下菜，结果往往不尽如人意。

惠普：他们四人都有可能获胜，但是尼永奥将是最提心吊胆的一个。当詹妮弗·劳伦斯的名字出现在奥斯卡《美国骗局》提名名单的末尾时，她获得了热烈掌声。人们都喜欢她。《美国骗局》这部电影共获得四个提名，在奥斯卡呼声最大，如果其演职人员得了奖，那一点都不稀奇。劳伦斯机会最大。

作曲家布鲁斯·布劳顿(Bruce Broughton)因作弊失去争夺最佳原创歌曲的资格，而且连提名都一并被撤销，这样值得吗？

萨基：当听到奥斯卡撤销布劳顿最佳原创歌曲提名时，我很震惊。鉴于整个竞赛赛季都像一场激烈的笼中大战，布劳顿做的只是个擦边球而已。再说了，整个赛季真的只有他一个违规了吗？

奥尼尔：当《拆弹部队》团队犯了和布劳顿一样的错时，奥斯卡并未取消《拆弹部队》或其制片人尼古拉斯·夏蒂尔(Nicolas Chartier)的竞选资格。夏蒂尔在奥斯卡确实拉过票，仅此而已。学院奖应该也给布劳顿同样的机会。

惠普：撤销布劳顿资格过于严厉，但他确实违反了规则。他不发邮件这首歌就得不了奖吗？或许不是。

汤普森：对。他不应该利用特权，他是前奥斯卡委员长，也是音乐执行会成员，他给他曾经的部下们发邮件，请他们关照他的歌曲，要不是作弊，这首歌本应该还在最佳歌曲提名名单上的。

奥斯卡之夜花落谁家最让你开心？

布伦南：《内布拉斯加》的琼·斯奎布。我喜欢那位女士，她是个八十多岁的老顽童。她证明了一辈子坚持不懈好好表演确实可以通向——一个奥斯卡提名。她要是赢了多好啊。不过即便赢不了，他也赢得了我的心。哇哦……

汤普森：切瓦特·埃加福特赢得最佳男演员。《为奴十二年》片尾的长特写带给了他奥斯卡。不过他的对手可是近年来实力最强的演员——他可是实至名归。如果马修·麦康纳赢了，那是因为他成功转型，他向我们展示他的能量——一系列的独立电影还有正在上映的电视剧《真探》。有个奖叫做“最佳电影明星转型悲情奖”，倒是应该颁给哈利·贝瑞(Halle Berry)和莎莉兹·塞隆(Charlize Theron)。

卡尔格：奖项不明朗，但我真的很喜欢《6号女人》，希望它能赢得最佳纪录短片。电影主人公爱丽丝·赫兹·桑默(Alice Herz-Sommer)非常鼓舞人心，她已经去世了，迟来的奖将是一份美好的颂辞。

奥尼尔：今年要是我最喜欢的《菲洛梅娜》得了奖，我会高兴得欢呼起来。坦白说，它有资格赢得最佳影片，不过最佳剧本或者最佳女演员

萨基：我希望《地心引力》获得最佳影片。《为奴十二年》好评一面倒，《美国骗局》笑得人合不拢嘴，这些天我又看一边参赛影片，我认为还是《地心引力》最好看。

惠普：奥斯卡很少给世界级导演颁奖，如果颁了奖，通常是因为这些电影不是他们的最佳作品。所以我看好阿方索·卡隆(Alfonso Cuaron)的《地心引力》。