春节过后,一年来“略显疲态”的楼市出现分化:一线城市楼市火爆,三、四线城市偏冷,去库存与去“虚火”任务并重。如何看待当前楼市的新变化、新现象?在楼市信号错综复杂的表象下,调控如何未雨绸缪?怎样做到精准发力?两会代表委员及学者纷纷献计献策。
黄奇帆:听任房地产高杠杆将是一场金融灾难
在两会重庆团讨论时,全国人大代表、重庆市市长黄奇帆指出,如果听任当前一些地方的房市高杠杆,将会是另一场金融灾难。银行房贷首付已降到30%,有些已到20%,如果房产商或中介再给购房者提供首付贷款,实际就使得买房人变成零首付或5%到10%首付。这和去年股市高杠杆造成的后果是一样的。
银行规定首期付款(down payments),对于防范信贷风险具有重要意义。首付贷(loans for home down payments)之所以要重拳打击,道理并不难懂。其危害不只是对房价的助推,更重要的是放大了房贷杠杆,可能引发整个金融业的系统性风险(systemic risks)。
李稻葵:买房“零首付”是饮鸩止渴;建议政府购买三四线城市房子租给农民
针对当前楼市去库存问题,全国政协委员、央行前顾问李稻葵在接受记者采访时直言:“我特别反对仅仅为了短期去库存而采取比如‘零首付’和场外配资等饮鸩止渴的办法。”
LI DAOKUI has cautioned that policies aimed at clearing the glut of unsold housing, such as zero down payments, may result in a real estate bubble.
“我特别反对为短期去库存而采取‘饮鸩止渴’的办法,比如用零首付和场外配资鼓励买房,这埋下了泡沫的种子。”李稻葵说。
He suggests the government purchase unsold houses in third- and fourth-tier cities and rent them to rural residents who intend to live there.
“去库存的根本在三四线城市,根本是城镇化,职能部门要引导农村居民先租后买,比如暂时可由政府的基金把房子先买下来,租给农民住,不要让这些房子大量闲置,这才是办法。”
“去库存”也可以用destock housing inventories来表示。“房地产库存”一般我们也可以称之为property glut,glut可以表示商品供过于求的状态。
与“三四线城市”相对应,“一线城市”的英文表述就是first-tier cities。
住建部部长陈政高:五项措施稳定北上广深房价
"I'm confident in the housing market taking more effective measures in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Shenzhen to have real estate develop in a stable way, including strict property purchase limitations and measures to fight illegal behavior in housing transactions," he said.
“对今年房地产市场平稳健康发展充满信心。目前一线城市北京、上海、广州、深圳变化非常大,正与这四个城市保持密切联系。它们也在想方设法稳定市场,主要做法有:实行严格的限购政策,打击各种交易当中的违法违规行为等。”
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