中国社科院发布的《经济蓝皮书:2017年中国经济形势分析与预测》呼吁,政府应该尽快从现有的“单独二孩”政策过渡到“全面放开二孩”政策。
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The fertility rate in China is now 1.4 children per woman, almost touching the warning line of 1.3 that is recognized globally as the "low fertility trap", according to the report.
报告指出,中国目前的总和生育率只有1.4,这个水平已经非常接近国际上公认的1.3的“低生育陷阱”的警戒线。
文中的low fertility trap就是“低生育陷阱”,相关说法还有低生育率(low fertility rate)。那么什么是低生育陷阱呢?
从经济学(economic)的角度讲,所谓的“低生育陷阱”是由于消费欲望(consuming desires)的提升导致的育儿意愿(willingness to have babies)降低。随着社会文明化程度的提高和经济快速发展(rapid economic development),生育意愿不断降低是人类社会发展的必然规律。正因为如此,很多工业化和城市化水平较高的西方国家,人口都出现负增长(negative growth)的趋势。
报告指出,一旦一个国家陷入低生育陷阱,三个自我强化的机制(self-reinforcing mechanisms)——人口统计(demographic)、社会以及经济将共同作用,使生育率保持一种螺旋式下跌的趋势(maintaining a downward spiral in fertility),并难以恢复。
中科院人口与劳动经济研究所副研究员陆旸表示,low fertility rate (低生育率)会引发shortage in the labor force (劳动力短缺)、aging society(老龄化社会)导致的经济负担等问题。
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