国际英语资讯:Interview: Britain may never actually leave EU: political expert

LONDON, July 26 -- Britain could remain for years in a transitional arrangement with the European Union, a leading academic expert in politics has predicted.

It could even lead to Britain never actually leaving the EU as negotiators come to terms with the complications of striking a "Brexit" deal, said Dr Stuart Wilks-Heeg, head of politics at the University of Liverpool.

In an interview with Xinhua, Wilks-Heeg also said the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the party set up to champion Brexit, could virtually disappear from Britain's political landscape.

David Davis, the government Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, is currently heading negotiations with Brussels about Britain's withdrawal as a member state in March 2019, two years after triggering the article 50 exit mechanism.

Former prime minister David Cameron called the national referendum in June 2016 after he had led unsuccessful talks with Brussels in a bid to tackle growing issues in Britain, particularly high levels of immigration.

Wilks-Heeg believes had those talks delivered a solution, the referendum may never have happened. Even so, Cameron, like many others, strongly believed British people would vote to stay in the EU. The result to leave came as shock, with Cameron quitting 10 Downing Street within hours of the result being declared.

Wilks-Heeg said: "It is clear we are heading for a transitional arrangement with Brussels, and as we end up half-in, half-out, things could just slip down the agenda. That could see us in this transitional stage indefinitely, and possibly almost permanently."

"The reality, rather terrifyingly, is that two years is nowhere near long enough to negotiate a clean Brexit. It is a lot more complicated and complex than people imagined, with trade deals taking years, seven years in some cases, to conclude."

Wilks-Heeg believes the longer and more protracted the talks, the penny will drop that it's easier to continue with those transitional arrangements.

Britain could, theoretically, remain in a sort of "no man's land," neither in Europe, nor out.

As for UKIP, Wilks-Heeg believes the party has had its day, and does not have a future.

Currently without an elected leader, UKIP has seen its fortunes collapse since the referendum, and in last month's snap general election, its results were dismal.

Despite being seen as the heroes of Brexit, UKIP did not win a single seat, and just a few days ago lost overall control of the only local council in Britain that it had led.

UKIP's likely demise does not surprise Wilks-Heeg. He said: "It started as a pressure group established by an LSE academic, Alan Sked, in 1993. For a very long time it was a fringe party and it was really only after large-scale immigration from Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe in the mid-2000s that UKIP became a significant political force.

"Following the election many of those who supported UKIP have returned to the Conservative or Labor Parties. This was hardly surprising given that UKIP had achieved what it set out to do.

"As things stand there is no longer a reason for UKIP to exist. UKIP had managed to link the issue of EU membership to immigration, and in last month's election the party went full throttle on this issue. It came up with a manifesto on immigration saying one-in, one-out, and that came across as laughable."

Wilks-Heeg said UKIP had little else to offer, and its supporters drifted back to the mainstream parties.

Whether its co-founder and most charismatic leader Nigel Farage can salvage the party's misfortunes, remains to be seen, says Wilks-Heeg.

More likely, he adds, will be UKIP waiting in the wings ready to spring into action if the Brexit process looks like failing or abandoning the very reason UKIP was created, to see a divorce between Britain and the EU.