新的亚洲世纪需要什么？

RAZEEN SALLY

RAZEEN SALLY

Asians face new economic challenges every day. The recent history of rapid growth, the contraction of traditional export markets in the West, and massive but on-again-off-again capital flows from Western investors, all are creating new dynamics across the region. Keeping up with these developments is a daily struggle for policy makers.

亚洲每天都面临新的经济挑战。最近一段时期经济的飞速发展、其传统出口市场──西方国家──需求的萎缩以及来自西方投资者的时断时续的大规模资本流动，这些都在整个亚洲创造了新动力。对于政策制定者而言，跟上这些形势是每天都要面临的一个难题。

But Asia also faces an intellectual challenge. The old investment-led and export-led growth policies that seemed to work so well are rapidly losing steam for many Asian countries. Meanwhile, common─although not always accurate─perceptions about the causes of the financial crisis in the West have discredited free-market economics in some eyes. Many Asians are rethinking their theories about what spurred their earlier growth, and how to create more prosperity.

此外，亚洲也面临着才智方面的挑战。在亚洲许多国家，曾经效果显著的传统的投资导向型和出口导向型发展政策正迅速失去推动力。与此同时，对西方国家金融危机起因的普遍看法（虽然不一定总是准确）也让自由市场经济失去了大家的信任。许多亚洲人开始重新思考关于是什么刺激了之前发展的分析以及如何实现更大的繁荣。

It's important for Asia to remember a few key points about its own recent history. Asians must recognize that an unprecedented expansion of economic freedom is at the core of the continent's genuine successes. Economies have prospered most when governments have eschewed interventionist policies in favor of unleashing the animal spirits of ordinary people.

对于亚洲人而言，谨记其近期发展进程中的几个关键点非常重要。他们必须要意识到，该地区真正成功的核心原因是经济自由度得到前所未有的提高。在政府避开干预性政策、转而放松对普通人冲劲的束缚时，亚洲各经济体才获得了最大的发展。

China's greatest leaps forward have come when authorities instituted rural property rights, opened up domestic trade and exposed the economy to international competition, whereas industrial supports are contributing to serious and unsustainable imbalances within the economy. Japan and the other tigers prospered because they ensured macroeconomic stability, had relatively low price controls and subsidies, built infrastructure and opened up to international trade. But interventionist industrial and financial policies bred crony capitalism and were a drag on future growth. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and Singapore have become among the richest economies in the region on a per-capita basis thanks to their economic freedoms.

中国最大的发展发生于政府在农村施行产权制度、放开国内贸易并走出去参与国际竞争之时，但是对工业的扶持也导致经济出现严重和不可持续的失衡现象。日本及其他“亚洲四小龙成员国之所以蓬勃发展，是因为它们保证了宏观经济的稳定、实行低价格管制、发放补贴、建设基础设施并且向国际竞争对手开放市常然而，干预性的工业和金融政策孕育了裙带资本主义，成为了未来发展的拖累。与此同时，得益于其自由的经济，按人均计算香港与新加坡成为了亚洲最富裕的一批国家。

But there is much unfinished business, for economic freedom remains substantially repressed across Asia. Three areas in particular are ripe for an economic-freedom rethink.

尽管如此，未完成的事业还有不少，因为整个亚洲的经济自由仍然遭到严重压制。如今对三个领域进行有关经济自由的反思的时机已经成熟。

One area is the financial market. In most of Asia, command-economy controls still restrict access to capital for all but the politically well-connected and do a bad job of turning savings into productive investments. The clearest example is China. The government's financial repression─suppressing interest rates for deposits to enable cheaper lending to borrowers─is at the core of unbalanced growth. Households lose any meaningful return on their savings, damping consumption. Cheap credit goes to inefficient state-owned firms, stoking malinvestment.

第一个领域是金融市常在亚洲大部分地区，计划经济控制依然限制所有人获得资本，但与政界关系良好的方面除外，因此它们在将储蓄转化为生产性投资方面做得很糟糕。其中，最显著的例子便是中国。中国政府的金融压制──压低储蓄利率以使借款人获得低息贷款──是经济发展不均衡的核心问题。家庭储蓄获不到任何有意义的回报，从而抑制了消费。低息贷款为效率低下的国有企业所获得，滋生了不良投资。

This pattern, repeated on different scales in many Asian economies, hinders the transition from 'catch-up' growth, which depends on mobilizing maximum inputs of capital and labor, to more sustainable growth based on productivity gains. Productivity-led growth requires the market to allocate capital to creative entrepreneurs. It is hindered by politicians and bureaucrats who direct capital to those who mimic technologies developed elsewhere.

这种模式在许多亚洲国家中都有不同程度的体现，阻碍了他们从依赖于动用最大财力和人力投入的“追赶式模式转型为以提高生产率为基础的更加可持续的发展模式。以生产率为导向的经济发展模式要求市场将资本分配给有创造力的企业，而将资本分配给那些模仿其他地方所开发技术的企业的政客和官僚对此造成了障碍。

To create a truly market-based financial system, policy makers must remove interest-rate controls; open their banking systems to new entrants, including foreigners; open bond and equity markets to broaden the capital base; and ultimately lift capital controls.

若要建立一个真正以市场为基础的金融体系，政策制定者必须解除利率控制，向新的进入者（包括国外的投资者）开放银行体系，开放债券和股票市场以扩大资本金基础，最终解除资本控制。

Financial liberalization is in ill repute after the 2010 crisis, but Asians should not misdiagnose that problem the way policy makers in Europe and America have. The fundamental problem was too much government intervention in the market─operating super-loose monetary policies, super-subsidizing banks deemed 'too big to fail,' and encouraging too much mortgage borrowing in the U.S.─not too little regulation.

自2010年爆发金融危机以来，金融自由化已经声名扫地，不过亚洲人不应向欧洲和美国的政策制定者那样错误地判断这一问题。深层次的问题不是监管太少，而是政府在市场干预得太多，比如实施超级宽松的货币政策、为被认为“大而不倒的银行发放大量补贴以及在美国鼓励民众过多抵押贷款。

Asia's trade- and foreign-investment policies also need a review. Earlier rounds of liberalization, both within Asia and globally, stimulated the region's manufacturers much more effectively than interventionist industrial policies. Yet the recent export slowdown shows that there are limits to relying on manufactured exports to the West for growth.

此外，亚洲的贸易政策和海外投资政策也需要进行审视。早前几轮自由化举措，不论是亚洲的还是全球范围的，对该地区制造业企业的刺激作用要比干预性的工业政策有效得多。不过，近期出口放缓表明依赖于对西方国家的制造业出口求发展存在局限。

Leaders now need to open two-way trade and foreign investment to develop more sophisticated manufacturing supply chains, and also new services supply chains and domestic consumption. Tariff barriers are still a problem, but more serious are pervasive non-tariff barriers. Most of these are embedded in complex domestic regulation on property rights, contracts, licensing arrangements, paying taxes, opening and closing businesses, labor laws and customs procedures which stifle Asia's business climate.

现在，亚洲的领导人需开放双边贸易和海外投资来建立更为成熟的制造业供应链、新的服务供应链以及促进国内消费。关税壁垒仍是一个问题，不过更严重的问题是普遍存在的非关税壁垒。这些壁垒大多存在于国内对产权、合同、执照手续、税赋、开业及关业、劳工法律以及海关程序方面的复杂规定，这些都使亚洲的投资环境受到抑制。

Asian economic institutions are relatively weak and keep business costs high. Poor public administration and enforcement of property rights repress entrepreneurship, innovation and consumption. They also result in badly integrated regional markets that remain a far cry from the openness within Europe or in North America with Nafta.

亚洲的经济制度比较薄弱，这使得企业的营业成本较高。公共管理薄弱和产权制度执行不力抑制了创业精神、创新和消费，这也导致区域市场的一体化程度较低，距欧洲及签署了《北美自由贸易协定》(Nafta)的北美的开放程度还有相当大的差距。

Finally, leaders need to apply principles of economic freedom to energy policy. Energy consumption in developing Asia is expected to double over the next two decades. That translates into much more demand for fossil fuels. Asia could also exploit fracking technology to reap massive benefits from shale gas.

最后，这些领导人也需在能源政策领域实行经济自由原则。日益发展的亚洲的能源消耗量在未来20年预计将翻番，这意味着对矿物燃料的需求也会增加很多。此外，亚洲也可利用水力压裂技术从页岩气获得巨大利益。

But energy markets are stunted by government intervention and state-owned enterprises. Price controls, subsidies, export restrictions and inward-investment restrictions are the norm.

事实却是，能源市场受到政府干预和国有企业的阻碍。价格管制、补贴、出口限制和对外来投资的限制是其中的主要因素。

China and India are attempting to secure energy supplies through command-economy rather than market instruments. They're sending out highly subsidized national oil companies to buy foreign firms and assets; striking long-term contracts with foreign governments; and pledging subsidized loans for oil. These measures make energy markets pricier and more volatile, and they exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

中国和印度正试图通过计划经济而不是市场手段来获得能源供应。它们派出获高额补贴的国有石油企业去收购海外企业和资产，与外国政府签署长期协议，并承诺为石油业务提供有补贴的贷款。这些举措使能源市场的价格提高并且更加波动，而且还使地缘政治的紧张局势加剧。

More energy freedom is required to cater to rising consumption; make energy supplies more stable, secure and cost-effective; and to preserve peaceful international relations. That means removing price controls and subsidies; encouraging private domestic and foreign investment; deregulating entrenched utilities; and freeing international trade.

为了满足不断增长的能源需求，使能源政策更稳定、更安全且更划算并维持和平的国际关系，能源市场应有更大的自由度。这表示政府要解除价格管制、取消补贴、鼓励国内和海外私人投资、放松饱受限制的公用事业企业的约束以及放开国际贸易。

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扩大经济自由度的改革也提出了进行政治改革以扩大公民和政治自由这一问题。“追赶式发展模式与多种政治体制相容，但是未经改革的、以不受制衡的特权阶层为其核心的专制统治却极不适于用来促进以生产率为主导可持续发展的结构改革和体制改革。

Reforms to expand economic freedom raise the question of political reforms to expand civic and political freedoms. Catch-up growth is compatible with a variety of political systems. But unreformed autocracies, with unchecked vested interests inevitably at their core, are badly fitted to undertake the structural and institutional reforms that enable sustainable productivity-led growth.

由于政府的干预减少和市场放开，自由与繁荣得以在亚洲这片土地上兴盛。亚洲奇迹并不是制定产业政策来促进某些目标行业发展的技术型政治人物一流的头脑所想出来的产物。实际上，此类社会管理方法行得通的证据也寥寥无几。

Freedom and prosperity have bloomed on Asian soil because government interventions have been curtailed and markets unleashed. The Asian miracle is not the product of superior technocratic minds who concocted industrial policies to promote targeted sectors. Indeed, there is scant evidence that such social engineering worked.

小政府──一个良好地发挥其核心作用的虽“小却强大的国家──以及国内的自由市场与国外的自由贸易才是一个新的亚洲世纪的重要因素。

Limited government─a strong but small state that performs its core functions well─and free markets at home and free trade abroad: These are the ingredients for a new Asian century.