中国私募股权高管担心人才流失问题

Private equity in China is unlikely to take a hiatus despite imminent political change as the country's Communist Party readies itself for a leadership handover in around two weeks.

尽管随着中共为大约两周后进行的领导人换届做好准备，中国的政治格局即将发生变化，但中国私募股权投资业却不太可能受到太大影响。

This will mark a once-in-a-decade move, seeing current President Hu Jintao handing over his mantle to Vice President Xi Jinping on Nov. 8. Chinese PE industry experts believe the shift in power will have only a slight effect on business, with one insider noting that investors should actually be more concerned about a growing exodus of people from the mainland, which could damage the country's entrepreneurial landscape.

在这场将于11月8日开始的10年一次的换届中，现任国家主席胡锦涛的职位将由副主席习近平接任。中国私募股权投资业的专家认为，此次权力交接将只会对其业务产生很小的影响。其中一位业内人士指出，投资者实际上应该更担心内地人才流失的加剧。人才流失可能会破坏中国企业格局。

'It's a brain drain,' said Mandarin Capital Partners Founding Partner Alberto Forchielli, who explained that many of those people leaving China are the ones who would establish businesses ─ ideal targets for private equity and venture capital investors alike. On top of this, it's a real sign that some people no longer have faith in China's growth story, he said, with the country recently reporting a third quarter gross domestic product increase of 7.4%, a drop from last year's growth seen at around 9.2%.

曼达林(Mandarin Capital Partners)创始合伙人福尔基耶利(Alberto Forchielli)说，这是一种人才流失。他解释说，很多离开中国的人都是会创办企业的人－－这些人是私募股权和风险投资家们的理想目标。他说，除此之外，随着中国最近公布第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速为7.4%，较去年约9.2%的增速有所下滑，这实际上显示出一些人对中国的增长故事不再抱有信心。

From last year alone, immigration lawyers also saw an uptick in the number of visas from Chinese looking to emigrate, with the U.S. alone seeing 75% of investor-immigrant applicants from China in fiscal 2011, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

此外，仅从去年以来，移民律师看到寻求移民海外的中国人申请签证数增加。《华尔街日报》此前报道说，仅美国一国2011财年收到的中国投资移民申请数量就上升了75%。

However, for those in the PE world who consider themselves long-term China investors, it's 'not a bad time in terms of cost base' to do deals in the mainland, said one Hong Kong-based limited partner, who noted that if industry insiders adopt a wait-and-see stance to determine how Mr. Xi settles into his new role, the market could have revalued by then.

不过，据一位驻香港的有限合伙人说，对私募股权投资行业那些自认为是长期投资中国的人士来说，从成本角度看，现在在内地做交易的时机还不错。这位人士指出，如果业内人士采取等等看的态度，以确定习近平对新职位的适应情况如何，那么届时市场可能早就已经完成重估。

As the political shift nears, general partners may find their decision-making process about a possible investment or portfolio company ─ say, if it's considering an exit ─ more drawn-out due to uncertainty around the transition, said Chris Lerner, managing director at Eaton Partners. Indeed, GPs could even start 'reviewing their strategy from the top down and how best to position themselves, particularly from a fundraising perspective, once new tones and directives become clear,' said Shanghai-based Mr. Lerner.

Eaton Partners驻上海的董事总经理勒纳(Chris Lerner)说，随着领导人换届的临近，普通合伙人可能会发现，他们针对一项可能的投资或针对投资组合中的一家公司作出相应决策（如是否考虑退出）的过程，会因围绕换届的不确定性而拉长。勒纳说，实际上，一旦新的基调和方针变得明朗，普通合伙人甚至可能开始从上至下全面评估自己的战略，评估如何最好地为自己定位，特别是从筹资的角度来看。

If anything, the air of change could help Chinese private equity evolve, with GPs moving away from minority shareholding, pre-initial public offering deals to full buyouts, said Mr. Forchielli, whose firm manages a cross-border fund targeting Chinese and European deals.

福尔基耶利说，总之，换届的气氛可能帮助中国私募股权投资业演变，普通合伙人从持有少数股权、首次公开募股(IPO)前的交易转向全盘收购。福尔基耶利的公司管理着一只以中国和欧洲交易为目标的跨境基金。

'Before a change, no one wants to rock the boat,' Mr. Forchielli said, explaining that the Chinese government is seeking to consolidate industries, including the automotive sector, which may encourage PEs to play a more active role in aggregating companies and then exit via a trade sale. He added that there's an excess of capital in the Chinese PE market, amid a challenging exit market due to a lack of IPOs, so the 'nature of PE [in China] will have to change.'

福尔基耶利说，在换届之前，谁都不希望打破现状。他解释说中国政府正在寻求整合多个行业，包括汽车业。这可能鼓励私募股权在整合企业的过程中发挥更积极的作用，然后通过同业买卖的方式退出交易。他还说，中国私募股权市场有着过剩的资金，加上由于缺少IPO交易，退出市场极具挑战，所以中国私募股权的性质将不得不改变。