朝鲜局势攸关韩国人福祉

At 11:07 a.m. Wednesday, North Korea's state news agency released a terse statement: 'An important report will be issued in the DPRK at 12:00 local time.'

周三上午11点07分，朝鲜官方通讯社发布一条简短声明说，当地时间12点整，朝鲜将有重要资讯发布。

That triggered a frenzy of action in government offices, military bases, financial trading floors and newsrooms in South Korea and the region─because it is a rare occurrence, but also because it is a kind of fire drill in case, no matter how remote, North Korea makes history by declaring an end to its isolationist ways and freedom for its people.

这则消息让韩国及整个东北亚地区的政府机关、军事基地、金融交易大厅和编辑部都忙碌起来，这既是因为这种事情很少出现，也是因为此种反应其实是一种应对朝鲜方面突发事态的演习。说不定朝鲜哪一天会宣布结束与世隔绝状态、给人民以自由呢，尽管发生这种历史性事件的可能性微乎其微。

The North's Korean Central News Agency hardly ever signals that big news is coming. But it did December 19, just two hours before announcing the huge news that dictator Kim Jong Il had died. And it did so again on April 25, just before announcing the utterly mundane news that its military, the Korean People's Army, was celebrating an anniversary.

朝鲜中央通讯社(Korean Central News Agency)极少事先预告将有重大消息发布。但去年12月19日，在发布独裁者金正日(Kim Jong Il)已经去世的重磅消息之前，它提前两小时做了预告。今年4月25日，在发布朝鲜人民军举行纪念活动这条完全没意思的资讯之前，朝中社也做了预告。

Wednesday's 'important report' report came after KCNA on Monday and Tuesday issued two items that described a major shake-up in the leadership of the North's military.

周三发布“重要资讯之前，朝中社于周一和周二发布两条消息，宣布了朝鲜军方领导层的重大调整。

Also, several reports last week showed the country's new leader, Mr. Kim's son Kim Jong Eun, with a female companion who might be his wife attending a concert with rock music and imitation Walt Disney Co. characters. Some observers considered those developments to signal a more modern style, and perhaps open mind, by Mr. Kim than his father ever displayed.

另外，上周的多篇报道显示，朝鲜新的最高领导人、金正日之子金正恩(Kim Jong Eun)在一名女子陪同下参加了一场有摇滚音乐与仿冒迪士尼卡通人物的音乐会，这名女子可能是他的夫人。一些观察家说，这些事态发展暗示金正恩比他的父亲更富现代气息，思维也有可能更加开放。

Amid all that, the approximately 53 minutes between KCNA's promotion of news and actual reporting of news brought to the surface the fact of life that South Koreans live with but rarely acknowledge─they are neighbors to a place that someday will undergo a tectonic change that will affect them as much as it does the people in the North.

正由于上述这些原因，在朝中社周三预告将发布重要资讯与实际发布资讯之间相隔的这大约53分钟，让人注意到韩国人实际面对、但他们很少承认的一个现实：他们的邻国将在某一天发生巨变，这种巨变对韩国人的影响，将不亚于对朝鲜人民的影响。

'The reality that underpins life on the Korean peninsula, and really all of northeast Asia, is that one day something fundamental is going to shift in this North Korea situation,' said Michael Breen, an author of books on the two Koreas and a public-relations consultant in Seoul. 'It's going to be thrilling. It's going to be liberating. It's going to be scary. And a lot rides on it.'

曾出书讲述朝韩关系的首尔公共关系咨询师布林(Michael Breen)说，朝鲜半岛、其实还有整个东北亚面临的一个现实情况是：目前的朝鲜局势有朝一日将会发生某种根本性改变；它将让人激动，让人自由，让人害怕，很多事情将因它而变。

How much is riding on it was clear by the behavior of the South Korean financial markets immediately following the 'important report' notice. Trading in currencies plunged to the lowest level of the day while trading in stocks escalated as uncertainty prevailed about the direction both would soon take.

从韩国金融市场周三在朝鲜发布“重要资讯预告之后的表现可以清楚看到，朝鲜方面若发生根本性改变将产生多么巨大的连带影响。外汇市场成交量下降至整个交易日的最低水平，同时股市交易量逐步放大，因为两个市场都不知道不久之后将是什么市场走向。

'Nobody knows what to do' in situations like these, Unique Yune, director of global markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Seoul said after trading ended Wednesday.

周三收盘后，美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)驻首尔的国际市场负责人Unique Yune说，谁都不知道在这种情况下该怎么办。

As they waited for the news, traders exchanged rumors. Some speculated that a humanitarian-aid deal the U.S. scrapped in March with North Korea had been revived. A reporter for a financial-news service tweeted a rumor that North Korea might announce Chinese-style economic reform.

在等待消息发布的那段时间里，交易员们相互交流各种传闻。一些人猜测美国3月份取消的一项人道主义援助协议已经恢复。某金融媒体的一名记者在推特(Twitter)上发布传言说，朝鲜可能会宣布实施中国式的经济改革。

Other traders wondered if, following this week's military shake-up, the military had grabbed control in the North. One bond trader sent an instant message to a Dow Jones Newswires reporter asking, 'What if it's about South-North unification?'

其他交易员则猜测，在本周朝鲜军方的重大人事变动之后，军方是否取得了朝鲜的控制权。一位债券交易员向道琼斯通讯社的记者发了一条即时消息问：是否可能与南北统一有关呢？

At the Blue House, senior secretaries to President Lee Myung-bak for security and foreign affairs canceled lunch appointments and gathered with his communications staff to wait for the news, a spokeswoman said. Mr. Lee, who earlier had met with the same advisers as well as ministers of foreign affairs and defense to talk about North Korea, proceeded with his daily schedule.

韩国总统府发言人说，在青瓦台，总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)负责安全和外交事务的高级秘书们取消了午餐约会，与总统的公关人员聚在一起等候消息。李明博未改变自己的例行日程。不过，他此前曾与上述顾问以及外交和国防部长会面讨论朝鲜问题。

Officials at South Korea's Finance Ministry called Minister Bahk Jae-wan on vacation to notify him that news from the North was coming.

韩国财政部官员致电休假中的财长朴宰完(Bahk Jae-wan)，通知他朝鲜方面要有消息了。

The head of the Bank of Korea's foreign-exchange market team, Jung Ho-seok, canceled his lunch and turned to his computer screen to follow the drop-off in trading. 'We were checking news from foreign media more closely than usual to learn any developments,' he said.

韩国央行(Bank of Korea)汇市团队负责人Jung Ho-seok取消了午餐，坐在电脑前密切关注交易下滑情况。他说，我们比平时更密切地关注来自外国媒体的消息，以便了解事情的进展。

Under South Korean law, North Korean TV broadcasts can't be shown live, but the South's news organizations can monitor them. At noon, South Korea's TV anchors and radio broadcasters transmitted the North's 'important report' as they listened to it.

根据韩国法律，韩国资讯机构不得直播朝鲜电视台的节目，但可以进行监控。周三中午，韩国电视节目主持人和电台播音员一边收听一边转播了朝鲜方面的“重要资讯。

And at 12:03, the report came across KCNA's English-language wire. 'A decision was made to award the title of Marshal of the DPRK to Kim Jong Eun, supreme commander of the Korean People's Army,' it said, using the acronym for the North's full name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. In a second, concluding sentence, it said the decision was made by several government organs on Tuesday.

12点03分，朝中社英语频道发来报道。报道说，决定授予朝鲜人民军最高司令官金正恩元帅称号。报道的第二句（也是最后一句）指出，这一决定是多个政府机构在周二做出的。

Mr. Kim's title is bigger than his previous military rank, general, which he was bestowed in October 2010. With the move, Mr. Kim now has the same title that his father Kim Jong Il had when he was alive. In February, two months after his death, Kim Jong Il got a new military rank, grand marshal.

金正恩的新称号比他此前的军衔“大将要高。2010年10月，金正恩被授予大将称号。被授予元帅称号后，金正恩的头衔就与其父金正日在世时的头衔一样了。今年2月，在去世两个月后，金正日被追授了大元帅称号。

To North Korea watchers, the announcement, coming after the ouster of a top general on Monday and promotion of another on Tuesday, added new grist to their perennial debate about the balance of power between the military and politicians in the country.

对朝鲜问题观察人士而言，金正恩被授予元帅称号给他们一直以来围绕朝鲜军政力量平衡的论战增添了新的素材。在金正恩被授予元帅称号之前，一位高级将领周一被免职，另一位高级将领周二获得擢升。

But to financial traders and most other observers, it seemed to be nothing new, and simply underscored Kim Jong Eun's control of North Korea, something that is well understood. 'We were thinking there might be some sort of change inside,' Mr. Yune said.

不过，在金融交易员和大多数其他观察人士看来，这事没有传达什么新信息，只是凸显了金正恩对朝鲜的控制，而金正恩对朝鲜的控制是众所周知的。Unique Yune说，我们本来在想，朝鲜内部可能在发生了某种变化。

South Korea's cable news channels quickly returned to tracking the advance of a typhoon that landed on the Korean peninsula Wednesday evening.

韩国有线电视资讯频道很快恢复了对一场周三晚间登陆朝鲜半岛的台风的报道。

KCNA also moved on. Ten minutes after issuing the news about Mr. Kim, it returned to one of the staple topics of its daily output with a story bashing South Korea's government. The headline: 'S. Korean Puppet Group Termed Band of Worst Hooligans.'

朝中社也恢复了正常报道。在发布了有关金正恩被授予元帅称号的消息后10分钟，朝中社重新拾起日常报道中的一个主要话题，播发了一篇攻击韩国政府的报道，题目是：韩国傀儡集团被称为最流氓团伙。