更新：中国央行意外下调利率

China's central bank lowered interest rates for the second time in less than a month, a move that sparked concern that the world's second-largest economy may be slowing more than anticipated.

中国央行在不到一个月的时间内第二次降息，此举令人们不禁担心世界第二大经济体中国的经济放缓幅度可能比预期更大。

The People's Bank of China said it would cut the one-year yuan lending rate by 0.31 percentage point, to 6%, effective Friday, making borrowing more attractive.

中国央行在公告中说，自2012年7月6日周五起将金融机构一年期贷款基准利率下调0.31个百分点，至6%，此举增加了借贷的吸引力。

To boost the effect, the PBOC─which sets a floor on lending rates and ceiling on deposit rates─also said banks could lend at 70% of the benchmark rate, down from 80% currently, making loans more affordable for borrowers.

为增强效果，中国央行还说，将金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.7倍，此前为0.8倍。此举使借款人更能承担得起贷款。一般情况下，中国央行为贷款利率浮动区间设定下限，为存款利率浮动区间设定上限。

Combined with the similar cut in June, 'in theory from where we were just a few weeks ago, the price of a one-year loan has fallen [2.4 percentage] points,' said Patrick Perret-Green, a Citigroup analyst.

花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师佩雷特-格林(Patrick Perret-Green)说，连同6月份的降息，理论上讲，目前的一年期贷款利率较几周前降了2.4个百分点。

'I think it means that [the central bank] is clearly worried,' said Louis Kuijs, project director of Fung Global Institute, a Hong Kong think tank.

香港智库经纶国际经济研究院(Fung Global Institute)的项目主管高路易(Louis Kuijs)说，我认为，这意味着央行显然感到担心了。

'They want to have a decent amount of policy easing in the system by the time we get into the summer,' he added.

他还说，他们希望在进入夏季之前，能够在系统中有适当程度的政策放宽。

In the first quarter, China's growth decelerated to 8.1% from the year-earlier quarter, the slowest pace since the summer of 2010.

今年一季度，中国经济的同比增速放缓至8.1%，是2010年夏季以来的最低水平。

Economists widely expect it to decline further to roughly 7.5% in the second quarter, when Beijing announces GDP data on July 13.

经济学家普遍预计，7月13日北京发布国内生产总值(GDP)数据时，数据会显示二季度中国经济增速将进一步放缓至约7.5%。

But HSBC economist Sun Junwei said the PBOC's interest-rate decision suggested that 'we have to be prepared for worse-than-expected growth data and a faster-than-expected drop in inflation.'

不过，汇丰(HSBC)经济学家孙俊伟说，中国央行的利率决定表明，我们必须为低于预期的经济增长数据和高于预期的通货膨胀降幅做好准备。

One factor that may have worried the central bank: government data as well as interviews with bankers and borrowers suggest bank borrowing may be slowing.

可能令中国央行担忧的一个因素是：政府官方数据及对银行家和借款人的采访都表明银行借贷可能在放缓。

J.P. Morgan, in a note, said it believed the 'direct trigger' for Thursday's interest-rate cut was a 'significant easing in inflation pressure,' to less than 3%.

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)在一份报告中说，该行认为，周四中国央行降息的直接诱因是通货膨胀压力大幅减轻，通货膨胀率降至不到3%。

'As the inflation concerns dissipate, it opens the room for the central bank to cut interest rates to lower the funding cost and support economic growth,' J.P. Morgan economists wrote.

摩根大通经济学家写道，通胀担忧的消散，为央行降息以降低融资成本并支撑经济增长创造了空间。

To help defray the impact of lower lending rates on banks, the central bank cut the one-year deposit rate by a quarter point, to 3%, only slightly less than the reduction in lending rates.

为了减轻下调贷款利率对银行的影响，中国央行将一年期存款基准利率下调至3%，下调了0.25个百分点，略低于贷款基准利率的下调幅度。

Whether it will have the desired effect is hard to judge.

目前还很难判断此次降息能否达到预期效果。

Many business officials have argued that interest rates aren't inhibiting them from borrowing more, but lack of demand is the problem.

许多商界人士认为，阻碍他们向银行申请更多贷款的并不是利率，而是缺乏贷款的需求。

Two of the main drivers of the Chinese economy now are hobbled.

中国经济增长的两个主要动力现在都失灵了。

The export sector depends more on what occurs in Europe and the U.S. than what policy makers in Beijing do.

出口领域的状况更多地取决于欧美的经济形势，而不是中国决策者制定的政策。

To help its beleaguered exporters, China has reversed the steady appreciation of the yuan against the dollar.

为了帮助身处困境的出口商，中国扭转了人民币对美元稳步升值的趋势。

Since the start of May, the yuan has fallen about 0.6% against the dollar.

5月初以来，人民币对美元汇率已经下降了大约0.6%。

The other driver is the real-estate market.

中国经济的另一个动力是房地产市常

Usually, a cut in interest rates would give a boost to the property market by lowering mortgage rates.

通常状况下，降息将导致抵押贷款利率降低，从而起到提振房地产市场的作用。

But China has been fighting a two-year battle to deflate a housing bubble and shows little sign of easing restrictions on purchases of second and third homes.

但是，中国为抑制房地产泡沫已经付出了两年的艰苦努力，几乎没有迹象表明中国会放松对购买第二套、第三套住房的限制。

Recently, prices in the housing market appear to have stopped their decline.

最近，房价下降的趋势似乎已经结束。

Indeed, the PBOC stressed that banks should keep in place measures to control speculative property purchases, signaling that authorities don't wish to see a resurgent real-estate bubble despite their increasingly active efforts to stimulate the economy.

的确，中国央行强调，银行应该坚持抑制投机性购房的措施，这意味着尽管政府更加积极地刺激经济，它仍不希望看到房地产泡沫死灰复燃。

China has been leaning more heavily on a third engine─investment by state-owned firms in energy and infrastructure projects.

中国经济越来越依赖第三个引擎──国有企业对能源和基础设施项目的投资。

But economists warn that such an effort risks furthering the monopoly powers of state-owned firms and risks wasting money on inefficient projects.

但经济学家警告说，这样的行动有可能进一步巩固国有企业的垄断力量，同时可能会导致资金被浪费在低效项目上。

Still, with a low debt load and a small budget deficit, China has more room to stimulate its economy.

尽管如此，凭借着较低的负债和规模较小的预算赤字，中国拥有更大的空间来刺激经济。

China has cut the level of reserves that banks have to hold three times since November 2011 and economists expect more cuts to come.

2011年11月以来，中国已经三次下调了银行存款准备金率，经济学家预计，未来中国还将继续下调存准率。