Lex专栏：西班牙纾困之舞还能跳多久？

The political fan-fluttering, handclapping and finger-snapping that marked Spain’s path towards a rescue package would have made flamenco dancers proud. But, as the weekend’s crescendo passes, important questions remain. Will the proposed measures be adequate to recapitalise Spain’s banking sector – and is the country’s bailout dance really over?

香扇翻飞，合掌齐击，响指震耳——西班牙在寻求纾困过程中的政治表演，足以让弗拉门戈(flamenco)舞者引以为豪。然而，随着上周末的高潮退去，一些重要的问题仍未解决。拟议的措施是否足够对西班牙银行业进行资本重组？这个国家的纾困之舞真的结束了么？

The slow build-up to Spain’s banking crisis means numerous analyses are on offer. Multiplicity, though, does not bring unanimity. The International Monetary Fund thinks domestic bank capital buffers could be brought up to the new Basel III standards for an aggregate €40bn (mainly by bolstering second-tier banks). The promised assistance of up to €100bn would then provide a generous margin. But rating agency Fitch puts the requirement at €50bn-€60bn – or, if Ireland’s pattern of property-related losses repeats itself, €90bn-€100bn. Some private sector forecasts are even more pessimistic: Barclays Capital estimates a basic €70bn-€80bn, rising to €126bn in an extreme stress scenario.

缓慢发酵的西班牙银行业危机，意味着有大量分析报告可供参考。不过，多重性不会带来一致。国际货币基金组织(IMF)认为，把国内银行的资本缓冲提高至新的巴塞尔协议III的标准，总共需要400亿欧元（主要通过加强二线银行实现）。依此推论，高达1000亿欧元的援助承诺，可提供充足的余量。但评级机构惠誉(Fitch)则估计，需要500亿至600亿欧元——如果爱尔兰那种房地产相关亏损再现，则需要900亿至1000亿欧元。一些私营部门的预测更为悲观：巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)估计，基本情景下需要700亿至800亿欧元，在极度压力的情景下升至1260亿欧元。

All of which underscores how interrelated bank sector losses are with Spain’s broader economic malaise. Property-related loans were 37 per cent of gross domestic output at the end of 2011: corporate debt was 186 per cent, the highest in the eurozone, aside from Ireland. Yet the economy is likely to contract by 2 per cent this year; unemployment is 24 per cent and rising; and perhaps 1m residential units overhang the property market. Vulnerabilities are obvious. Better news, short term, is that Spain’s future net debt issuance needs should now be very modest in 2012 – no small comfort given uncertainties surrounding Greece’s election rerun. But while European leaders may have improved on bailout choreography the fourth time around, the real steps needed – commitment to the eurozone’s periphery and more focus on growth – are unchanged.

这一切都突显出，银行业的亏损与西班牙的整体经济困境多么相关。截至2011年底，房地产相关贷款相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的37%；企业债务相当于GDP的186%，在欧元区仅次于爱尔兰。然而，西班牙经济今年可能收缩2%；失业率达24%并持续上升；而房地产市场上可能积压着100万套住宅。各种脆弱性显而易见。短期内稍好的消息是，西班牙未来净债务发行需求在2012年不会太高——鉴于围绕希腊第二轮大选投票的不确定因素，这是一个不小的安慰。然而，尽管欧洲领导人也许在救助第四个欧元区经济体时改进了“纾困编舞，但真正需要采取的步骤（承诺扶持欧元区外围国家，同时关注增长）没有改变。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析