谁能恢复美国的自信？

Wanted: a president to put can-do spirit back in the USThere have been lower and meaner presidential election campaigns: Richard Nixon’s “amnesty, abortion and acid jibe against George McGovern in 1972 comes to mind. Even so, this was a gruelling and ill-tempered contest. Yesterday, however, under clear blue skies in the nation’s capital, voters finally had their chance to speak.

美国有过更加低俗更加卑劣的总统竞选：1972年理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)嘲笑乔治·麦戈文(George McGovern)“赦免坏人，支持堕胎，纵容毒品的话就是一例。即便如此，今年的这场角逐令人精疲力尽且心情烦躁。然而，昨日在美国首都清澈的蓝天下，选民们终于有机会说话了。

The victor in the 2012 election faces an immediate test of leadership, not merely to overcome the divisions between Democrats and Republicans that have largely paralysed Washington. The greater challenge is how to rekindle a spirit of can-do optimism in a nation beaten down by the global financial crisis.

2012年大选获胜者面临着迫在眉睫的领导力考验，不只是克服民主党和共和党之间的分歧——这种分歧已基本上导致华盛顿瘫痪。更大的挑战在于，如何在一个遭受全球金融危机冲击的国家重新点燃敢想敢干的乐观主义精神。

“What America needs right now is confidence, says a Wall Street chief executive. “All the ingredients are in place for a recovery but we need predictability and strong executive leadership.

华尔街的一位首席执行官表示：“美国当前需要的是自信。复苏的所有元素都已到位，但我们需要可预见性和强大的执行领导力。

This year’s election will be remembered largely as a referendum on economic management, if not an entire philosophy of government.

在很大程度上，今年的大选将作为一场关于经济管理（如果不是关于整个政府理念的话）的全民公投而被人铭记。

Having inherited an economy in meltdown, Barack Obama spurned regressive tax cuts and deregulation and resorted to government borrowing and state intervention on a level not seen since the 1930s. Like Franklin Roosevelt, Mr Obama sought to save capitalism from itself.

巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)当初上台时，适逢美国经济深陷困境。他放弃了递减性的减税和解除管制政策，转而付诸于政府借贷和国家干预措施，规模自上世纪30年代以来所未见。与富兰克林·罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)一样，奥巴马寻求阻止资本主义走向自我毁灭。

Four years on, house prices have stopped falling and the US consumer is spending again. But despite a 12.7 per cent year-to-date rise in the S and P stock market index, the feelgood factor is missing and business is holding back on investment. By some calculations, US corporations have $1,700bn of cash on their balance sheets waiting to be spent.

4年过去了，房价不再下跌，美国消费者再次开始支出。但尽管今年以来标普500指数上涨12.7%，可人们仍然没有幸福感，企业纷纷搁置投资。按照某些人的计算，美国企业资产负债表上有1.7万亿美元的现金等待支出。

Many blame the corporate investment strike on the “fiscal cliff, the medium-term US budget crisis. Without a resolution by January 1, automatic spending cuts and tax rises will take place, which could plunge the US back into recession.

许多人将企业投资停顿归咎于“财政悬崖，即中期的美国预算危机。如果到明年1月1日还没有达成协议，削减支出和增税法案将自动生效，这可能让美国重新陷入衰退。

“The problem is that the US is growing at only 1.5 to 2 per cent, says the chief executive of a big US bank.

美国一家大型银行的总裁说：“问题在于美国现在的增长率只有1.5%到2%。

“We’re not used to this grind. We need a change in the growth pattern, creating jobs in construction and retraining workers.

“我们不习惯这种持久的折磨。我们需要改变增长模式，在建筑行业增加工作岗位，并且重新培训工人。

What makes investors doubly nervous is the combination of the “fiscal cliff and a return of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, triggered by an upsurge in borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.

令投资者加倍焦虑的是，由于西班牙及意大利举债成本飙升而导致的欧债危机再次爆发，将会与“财政悬崖共同发难。

In the post-election lame-duck session of Congress, the stand-off between Democrats and Republicans risks replaying the crisis of summer 2011. At that time, Congress delayed raising the debt ceiling and the US was stripped of its coveted triple A rating, seemingly the guarantee of its superpower status.

在选举后国会“跛脚鸭时期，民主党与共和党之间的对峙，有可能让2011年夏天的危机重演。当时，国会拖延上调联邦举债上限，美国失去被看重的AAA评级，此前这一评级貌似美国超级大国地位的保证书。

Mr Obama, cool and cerebral compared to his predecessor George W. Bush, found it nigh impossible to break down the Republican wall of opposition on Capitol Hill. His ground-breaking bill on healthcare reform passed without a single GOP vote.

尽管比起前任乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)来奥巴马更为冷静与理智，但是他发现要想在国会化解共和党方面反对一切的立场几乎是不可能的。他提出的开拓性的医改法案在国会通过的整个过程中，没有得到一张共和党人的选票。

Mr Obama lacked the seductive power of a Bill Clinton or the towering authority of a Lyndon Johnson. His cold logic won few close friends on Capitol Hill, where congressmen and senators are more susceptible to the politics of the pork barrel, a healthy dose of flattery and a good Cuban cigar.

奥巴马缺少比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)迷人的魅力，也缺少林登·约翰逊(Lyndon Johnson)的威严。冷静的逻辑没能让他在国会赢得几个盟友，众议员和参议员们更易于接受那种以肉桶政治、大量奉承以及上好的古巴雪茄为特征的政治风格。

On foreign affairs, the agenda is no less pressing or daunting. At some point over the next four years, the president will have to make a fateful choice over how to deal with Iran’s ambitions to build a nuclear bomb. Western intelligence estimates Tehran is at least a year away from building a weapon, and any attempt to manufacture one would be detectable.

在外交事务方面，议程也一样紧迫，甚至可以说令人畏惧。在今后四年的某个时候，美国总统势必要就如何对付伊朗的核武野心作出一个决定命运的选择。据西方情报机构估计，伊朗政府至少还需一年才能制造出核武器，而他们的任何制造企图都将是可以觉察的。

This implies an opportunity for diplomatic negotiations, economic sanctions and/or preparation for a US-led military strike against Iranian installations in 2013-14. Mr Obama (who blinked first on the extension of Israeli settlements on the West Bank) forced his nemesis Benjamin Netanyahu to blink on threats to take unilateral military action ahead of the 2012 election.

这意味着还有采取外交斡旋、经济制裁以及/或者准备由美国主导在2013年到2014年对伊朗核设施进行军事打击的机会。在以色列在约旦河西岸扩建犹太人定居点问题上曾经先让步的奥巴马，迫使他的死对头本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)收回在2012年大选前采取单方面军事行动的威胁。

Intelligence insiders are betting on some form of diplomatic overture from the next administration to test the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s intentions in 2013, especially given that the firebrand president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is due to step down next year.

情报机构的内部消息人士认为，下一届政府将在2013年作出某种形式的外交姿态，试探伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Khamenei)的意图，尤其是考虑到激进的伊朗总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad)明年将要卸任。

Elsewhere in the Middle East, the next president must deal with the unfolding drama of the Arab spring. And then there is China. In the last four years the US belatedly executed a pivot towards Asia, partly to counter Beijing’s rising power, if not exactly to replicate the “containment strategy successfully pursued against Soviet Russia.

在中东其他地区，下一任总统必须应对正在上演的“阿拉伯之春。此外，还有中国问题。过去四年，美国姗姗来迟地执行转向亚洲的战略，部分是为了反制不断崛起的中国——如果说这项战略不是完全复制当年成功对付苏联的“遏制战略的话。

Rising nationalism coupled with territorial disputes in the South China sea are the immediate threat; but the next administration will also be worried about the decline of Japan, squeezed like a nut in a nutcracker between low-cost China and the ruthless competitive might of South Korea.

中国不断高涨的民族主义情绪以及在南海的领土纷争是迫在眉睫的威胁，但下一届美国政府还需要担忧日本的衰落，该国在低成本的中国和具有强大竞争力的韩国之间受到挤压。

Twenty-four years ago, as the cold war drew to a close, James A. Baker, the canny Treasury secretary and future secretary of state, coined the phrase “economic insecurity as the signature tune of George H.W. Bush’s campaign. In fact, Mr Bush’s presidency was dominated by national security.

24年前冷战即将结束的时候，时任财政部长、后来出任国务卿的詹姆斯·贝克(James Baker)发明了“经济不安全这个说法，作为乔治H·W·布什(George H.W. Bush)竞选的主旋律。实际上，老布什的任期被国家安全事务所主导。

In the next four years, barring an unforeseen external crisis, Americans are likely to be preoccupied by economic insecurity as they struggle to maintain their pre-eminence in a global economy where advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labour readily available.

未来四年，只要不发生不可预见的外部危机，美国人很可能全力关注经济不安全问题，在先进知识普及、低成本劳动力随时可用的全球化经济中，美国将努力保持自己的优势地位。

Yet the US is, in many respects, in far better shape than Europe. Thanks to the Bush and Obama administrations, it has recapitalised its banking system. The shale gas revolution is dramatically lowering energy costs and ushering in a manufacturing renaissance. To the south, low-cost Mexico is increasingly competitive vis a vis China; to the north lies energy-rich Canada. “I am incredibly bullish on America, concludes the Wall Street CEO.

然而在很多方面，美国的情况远远好于欧洲。小布什和奥巴马政府时期，美国已经对银行体系进行了资本重组。页岩气革命正大幅降低能源成本，迎来一场制造业的复兴。在南面，低成本的墨西哥相对于中国竞争力不断增强，北面还有能源大国加拿大。上面提到的那位华尔街CEO最后说：“我对美国满怀信心。

And so, after the heat of the campaign, both victor and defeated might remember that no solutions are perfect but no challenge inherently insurmountable in the next four years for the US, still the most powerful nation on earth.

在激烈的竞选之后，赢家和输家都明白，对美国来说，未来四年任何措施都不是完美的，但也没有一个挑战是在根本上不可克服的，美国仍将是这个世界上最强大的国家。