中国经济数据低迷 浇灭迅速回升希望

China's factory output showed further slowing, damping hopes that Beijing's shift to stimulus would trigger a rapid rebound in the world's second-largest economy, and compounding fears about a flagging global recovery.

数据显示中国工业增加值增速进一步放缓，浇灭了外界的希望，并加剧了人们对全球复苏乏力的担忧。外界原本希望北京转向刺激措施将促使全球第二大经济体迅速回升。

Industrial output, the key monthly measure of China's economic health, dipped to 9.2% growth in July compared with a year earlier, down from 9.5% in June and the lowest level since May 2010. Electricity generation eked out a 2.1% on-year increase, pointing to a sharper slowdown in energy-intensive heavy industry.

中国7月份工业增加值同比增长9.2%，低于6月份的9.5%，也是2010年5月以来的最低增速。发电量同比增长仅2.1%，显示出能源密集型重工业更大幅度的放缓。工业增加值是衡量中国经济健康状况的主要月度指标。

'Output growth is surprisingly weak and may trigger more policy easing' said Zhang Zhiwei, China economist at Nomura. Equity markets in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong shook off the negative data to end the day up, reflecting hopes that Beijing would do more to stimulate growth.

野村(Nomura)的中国经济学家张智威说，工业增加值增速低迷出人意料，可能引发更多的政策放松。中国内地和香港股市未受到疲弱经济数据的影响，周四收盘走高，反映出投资者预期北京将采取更多措施刺激经济增长。

The figures offer a first glimpse of whether China's third-quarter growth will recover from a second-quarter slowdown. Gross domestic product grew 7.6% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, down from 8.1% in the first and the slowest pace since the global financial crisis.

外界可以藉周四发布的数据窥知中国三季度经济增长是否会较二季度有所回升。中国二季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.6%，低于一季度的8.1%，也是全球金融危机以来最低增速。

The European crisis, which has hurt China's exports, and a policy-induced correction in China's own real estate sector help explain the disappointing output figures.

欧洲危机打击了中国的出口，加上中国国内房地产业的政策性调整，这些都有助于解释工业增加值数据为何令人失望。

In the real-estate sector, the area of new residential property under construction fell 13.4% in the first seven months of the year compared with a year ago. In a recent news conference, Tan Huajie, board secretary of property developer China Vanke Co., said sluggish sales meant some developers were reducing construction in the second half.

在房地产业，今年前七个月在建住宅面积同比减少13.4%。在最近召开的一次资讯发布会上，房地产开发商万科企业股份有限公司(China Vanke Co.)董事会秘书谭华杰说，销售低迷意味着一些开发商下半年将减少施工建设。

A slowdown in real estate is denting demand for steel and other construction materials. Yang Jian, sales manager of a steel trade company in Zhengzhou in central China, said the market 'is not good.' 'Steel prices keep declining, sales are down too,' he said. 'This year is worse than last year. We can't see any hope.'

房地产业的放缓开始打击钢材及其他建筑材料的需求。河南郑州一家钢材贸易公司的销售经理杨健（音）说，市场行情不好。他说，钢材价格不断下降，销售也在下滑，今年比去年还糟，我们看不到任何希望。

Household consumption, which China's leaders hope will play a bigger part in supporting growth, showed some signs of resilience. Taking account of changes in prices, retail-sales growth edged up modestly to 12.2% on year from 12.1% in June. Sales of passenger cars were also robust, up 11% on year in July according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry group.

家庭消费显示出一些增长的迹象。中国7月份经通胀调整后的零售额同比增长12.2%，略高于6月份的12.1%。轿车销量也较强劲，据行业组织中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)的数据显示，7月份轿车销量同比增长11%。中国领导人希望家庭消费能在支撑经济增长方面发挥更大的作用。

China's leaders have promised to swing policy into pro-growth mode, with cuts in the benchmark interest rate in June and July reducing the cost of a one-year loan by 1.7 percentage points for some borrowers. Speaking at the end of July, Premier Wen Jiabao said the government would give higher priority to protecting growth, a message repeated by the central bank in its second-quarter Monetary Policy Report.

中国领导人承诺将把政策转向促增长，6月和7月连续下调基准利率，使部分借款人的一年期贷款利率降低了1.7个百分点。国务院总理温家宝7月底说，政府将把稳增长放在更加重要的位置。中国央行在其二季度货币政策报告中再次强调了这一讯息。

Still, China's commercial banks report that those shifts had yet to feed through into stronger demand from customers. 'Loans for infrastructure and environmental projects are flat' said one loan officer at a state-owned bank in Beijing.

尽管如此，据中国的商业银行报告，这些政策转向尚未转化为客户需求的增长。北京某国有银行的一位贷款部门管理人员说，基础设施和环保项目贷款没有增长。

Inflation slowed, with the consumer-price index down to 1.8% on-year in July from 2.2% in June, the lowest level since January 2010. That opens up space for the government to do more to support growth.

通货膨胀率在7月份出现回落，当月份消费者价格指数(CPI)增幅降至1.8%，低于6月份的2.2%，也是2010年1月以来的最低水平。这为政府采取更多措施支持经济增长创造了空间。

But government economists were pessimistic that easing monetary policy alone would be sufficient to get the economy back on track. Li Shigang, a researcher at a think tank linked to the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, said the recent rate cuts would have a limited impact on boosting demand.

不过，政府经济学家认为，仅凭放松货币政策不足以使经济恢复快速增长。国家发展和改革委员会下属一个智库的研究员李世刚说，最近的连续降息对提振需求只会产生有限的影响。

With cuts in interest rates slow to pass through into stronger lending, and business reluctant to spend, the government is stepping up its own investment efforts.

由于降息未能立竿见影地导致贷款需求增强，企业不愿意增加开支，在这种情况下，政府开始加大自己的投资力度。

The NDRC approved 1,446 major investment projects in the first half of the year, up 22% from the same period in 2011. Investment in the railway system, a mainstay of China's 2010 economic stimulus, was up 8% on year in July, the first return to growth since the beginning of 2011.

今年上半年，国家发改委批准了1,446个大型投资项目，较2011年同期增加22%。7月份铁路系统投资同比增长8%，是2011年初以来首次恢复增长。铁路系统的投资是中国2010年经济刺激计划的一个重要组成部分。

Some businesses reported the government's efforts to stimulate growth were already improving their bottom line. Zheng Huirong, a manager at China National Building Material Co., said its sales of cement and other building materials were up 10% on-month in July. 'The stimulus measures have had a positive impact on property and infrastructure investment and that is boosting demand' she said.

一些企业报告说，政府刺激经济增长的措施已经开始令它们的利润出现好转。中国建材股份有限公司(China National Building Material Co.)一位名叫郑惠蓉（音）的经理说，7月份该公司水泥和其他建材的销售额较上个月增长了10%。她说，政府的刺激措施对房地产和基础设施投资带来了积极影响，正开始提振需求。

Still, if more businesses don't start to see the benefits, Mr. Li─the government researcher─expects Beijing to redouble its stimulus efforts. 'If third-quarter growth is below 7.5%, CPI is below 2%, and there is chaos in Europe, we should consider a major policy attack,' he said.

尽管如此，但李世刚预计，如果没能有更多的企业开始看到政府刺激措施带来的好处，北京将加大刺激力度。他说，如果三季度经济增速低于7.5%，CPI低于2%，且欧洲经济依旧一团糟，中国应该考虑出台重大政策举措以促进经济增长。