Lex专栏：欧洲或需继续紧缩

Austerity

如果紧缩可被定义为自我克制及放弃世俗享乐，那么这些缩减及节省已使我们变成非常无趣的一群人。家庭部门的储蓄正在增长，世界各国的政府部门正在努力缩减开支。已经够了！感谢上帝，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)认为目前还不是过分俭朴的时候。欧洲的政治领导人也在越来越多地质疑紧缩措施。

If austerity can be defined as self-denial and abstention from worldly pleasures, what a joyless bunch we have been, with all that cutting and scrimping. Household savings are up and governments the world over are trying to spend less. Enough already! Thank goodness Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund managing director, thinks this is not the time to be excessively virtuous. European political leaders are increasingly questioning austerity measures too.

那么，为什么上周股票市尝特别是欧洲股市（拉加德的话指的就是欧洲）还会出现抛售？毕竟，在其他条件相同的情况下，政府的赤字性支出越大，企业的利润就越高。股市之所以没有应声上涨，是因为投资者知道，将欧洲的困境归咎于缩减支出并不完全符合事实。

So why did equity markets sell off last week, particularly in Europe, where Ms Lagarde’s comments were directed? After all, more government deficit spending means higher corporate profits, other things being equal. Stocks did not soar because investors know that blaming spending cuts for Europe’s woes is not entirely backed up by the facts.

没错，过去一年欧洲的工业产值下降了近3%。但是，该指标今年第三季度预计将出现上升，它在8月份已同比上升0.6%（这是四个月来的第三次月度上升）。第三季度欧洲经济增长有望出现提速，虽然提速幅度可能较校但疲软的增长依然是增长。问题在于，驱动增长的因素是什么。最新数据显示，欧洲经济增长最为强劲的领域是耐用消费品——8月份，该领域的月度增幅接近4%。

True, industrial production is down nearly 3 per cent during the past year. But it is forecast to increase in the third quarter after posting a rise of 0.6 per cent in August (the third monthly rise in four months). That looks promising for an expansion of economic growth in Europe in the third quarter, albeit an anaemic one. But anaemic growth is still growth. The question is what is driving it. The latest data suggest the strongest bit of Europe’s economy is consumer durables – the sector posted a monthly expansion of nearly 4 per cent in August.

在整个欧元区危机期间，投资者一直在推动欧洲股市横向盘整。富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)上涨了5%，富时100指数上涨了7.5%。自2010年初以来，这两大指数的涨幅较标普500指数低了将近四分之一，尽管这三个指数目前的市盈率水平基本相当（都在13倍至15倍之间）。因此，欧洲的股票并不便宜；不仅如此，全球投资者还担心，欧洲许多国家虽然正在施行紧缩，但依然难改花钱大手大脚的本性。他们也许想看到欧洲国家进行更多的自我克制。

Investors have pushed Europe’s stock markets sideways throughout the eurozone crisis. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index is up 5 per cent; the FTSE 100 index is up 7.5 per cent. They trail the S and P 500 index by almost a quarter since the beginning of 2010, though all three indices trade on roughly the same earnings multiples (between 13 and 15). So not only are European stocks not cheap: global investors still worry that much of the region is still inherently profligate, austerity notwithstanding. They seem to want more self-denial.

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析