中国油企海外并购的下一个目标是哪里？

With Cnooc Ltd.’s $15.1 billion deal in Canada, everyone is wondering: what’s next in China’s quest for energy?

中国海洋石油有限公司(Cnooc Ltd., 简称：中海油)达成以151亿美元收购加拿大油企的交易后，每个人都在思考这样一个问题：中国获取能源的下一个目标是哪里？

According to a note by brokerage Sanford Berstein from March, Chinese oil companies’ big acquisition appetite only really took off after the financial crisis, because they saw a “once in one hundred years opportunity to take advantage of cheaper assets and reduced competition. Prior to that, deal sizes were much smaller.

投资银行桑福德伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford Bernstein)今年3月份出具的一份报告显示，中国油企在金融危机爆发后才显露出对海外收购的强烈兴趣，因为它们看到，资产价格已经降低，竞争激烈程度已经减弱，这样的机会百年一遇。在此之前，中国油企的交易规模要小得多。

Energy security is of course the key driver of these deals, but Chinese oil majors also want to learn from their Western counterparts and develop more sophisticated and diversified portfolios by acquiring more upstream assets, says Bernstein. With the Nexen Inc. deal, Cnooc will gain assets in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea for the first time, for example. Another deal announced on Monday sees Sinopec, or China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., enter the North Sea through its purchase of a 49% stake in Canada’s Talisman’s Energy Inc.’s. That gives the two firms roughly an 11% share in the U.K.’s oil and natural-gas production.

桑福德伯恩斯坦说，能源安全的诉求毫无疑问是驱动这些交易的关键因素，但是，中国大型油企还希望在收购更多上游资产的过程中向西方的同行学习，从而开发更加复杂和多样化的产品组合。举例来说，通过收购Nexen Inc.，中海油将首次在墨西哥湾和北海地区拥有资产。周一，中国石化(Sinopec)收购了加拿大塔里斯曼能源(Talisman Energy Inc.)49%的股份，并因此在北海拥有资产。这样一来，在英国的石油和天然气生产中，中海油和中国石化的占比将达到11%左右。

Chinese oil companies have also set themselves ambitious targets for international production. Sinopec has a target for overseas production from just under 500,000 barrels per day in 2011 to a million barrels per day by 2015. Cnooc aims to have 30% of its total production come from abroad by 2015, up from 20% in 2010. China National Petroleum Corp. hopes to double overseas production to two million barrels a day by 2015.

在海外产量方面，中国油企也设定了雄心勃勃的目标。中国石化计划到2015年将海外产量提高到每天100万桶。相比之下，2011年的海外产量为每天50万桶以下。中海油的目标是到2015年将海外产量占公司全部产量的比重提高到30%，相比之下，2010年这一比例是20%。中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corp.)希望到2015年将海外产量翻一番，达到每天200万桶。

For Cnooc, the need to do deals is all the more pressing following last year’s oil spill at its Penglai field in northeastern China that reduced production, and regulatory delays over BP PLC’s attempt to sell its stake in Argentine crude-oil producer Pan American Energy LLC to Cnooc.

去年中海油在中国东北部的蓬莱油田发生漏油事件并导致减产，此外，英国石油公司(BP PLC)向中海油出售所持Pan American Energy LLC的股权的进程也因监管问题被耽搁，发生了上述事件后，中海油实施并购交易的需求更加紧迫。

In terms of geography, Canadian and British exploration and production companies are the most likely targets given the lower degree of hostility towards Chinese companies, though Bernstein acknowledges that the Unocal Corp. experience still looms large in the minds of Chinese executives. They have tried to mitigate potential conflicts in various ways since. For example, Sinopec hired a third party in Canada to market all of its production in its investment in Alberta’s Syncrude oil-sands project.

从地理方面的因素来考虑，加拿大和英国的石油开采和生产企业最有可能成为中国油企收购的目标，因为他们对中国企业的排斥较低，不过桑福德伯恩斯坦承认，收购美国加州联合石油公司(Unocal Corp.)的经历仍然让中国高管心有余悸。他们已经试图以各种方式化解潜在的冲突。例如，为了顺利投资艾伯塔省的Syncrude油砂项目，中国石化在加拿大聘请了第三方负责该项目产品的营销工作。

North American companies also have the technological and operational expertise Chinese companies are hankering after to use not only at home but at all their assets around the world. However, Nomura notes that the Cnooc-Nexen deal would end up being “value destructive for Cnooc because of the high execution risks associated with operating the ultra-deepwater assets in the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea, something that has dragged down Nexen’s share price over the last few years.

北美公司还拥有中国企业所需的技术和运营方面的专业知识，中国油企希望能够将这些专业知识应用于其在国内甚至全球的资产。不过，野村证券(Nomura)指出，中海油收购Nexen的交易最终会对中海油的企业价值起到破坏作用，因为在墨西哥湾和北海运营超深水资产存在着较高的执行风险。过去几年，这种风险一直在拖累Nexen的股价。

Latin America, in particular offshore Brazil, will continue to be attractive, particularly in the light of political obstacles in Argentina, says Bernstein. The Middle East and North Africa will be off-limits for a while for China given geopolitical risks and dangers facing Chinese workers including kidnappings, with the exception of Iraq and Kurdistan, as China is one of the largest buyers of crude from Iraq, particularly Rumaila, the country’s largest oil field.

桑福德伯恩斯坦说，拉丁美洲尤其是巴西近海仍然具有吸引力，尤其是考虑到阿根廷存在的政治障碍的情形下。中东和北非在一段时间内仍然是禁区，除了地缘政治风险，在那里作业的中国工人还面临着被绑架等危险，伊拉克和库尔德斯坦是例外，中国是伊拉克（尤其是伊拉克最大的鲁迈拉(Rumaila)油田）所生产原油的最大买家之一

“The scale of Iraq’s reserves has made them a rare prize for China’s national oil companies, said Bernstein.

桑福德伯恩斯坦说，由于石油储量规模可观，伊拉克已经成为中国国有石油公司不可多得的理想投资地。

CNPC is particularly active in Iraq, having been engaged there since the mid 1990s, and is jointly developing the field with BP. Last week, PetroChina Ltd., a CNPC subsidiary, said oil production started at the Halfaya oil field in southern Iraq. Iraq holds the third-largest oil reserves in the world.

中国石油天然气集团公司在伊拉克格外活跃。自20世纪90年代中期以来，该集团公司就已经在伊拉克开展业务，而且目前正在与英国石油公司联合开发那里的油田。上周，中国石油天然气集团公司下属的子公司中国石油天然气股份有限公司(PetroChina Ltd)表示，该公司已经开始在伊拉克南部的Halfaya巨型油田进行石油生产。伊拉克的石油储量全球排名第三。